News on China's scientific and technological development.

free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
Hi siegecrossbow,

Yup you are correct, Regarding equipment right now everything is available , Huawei may need time to operate it. About the SMIC, if they were able to produce chip using the SMEE equipment will they still be sanction is they produce it for Huawei. What I know is most of the SMIC equipment had American component to it, and maybe costly to replace it all.
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The way I see it is this. As an example, imagine your car is broken. You may have all the tools to fix it, you still have to figure out what the problem is and how to fix it.
Weaasel said:
It isn't just Huawei, it is China. Any thing that is worth producing, China should have the capability of producing domestically. What the Trump Administration is doing and has done to Huawei and ZTE should serve as a lesson for China to have the ENTIRE creative, productive, and supply chain of any manufacturing industry located domestically, without exception. It will take time, but that should be the eventual goal.
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I disagree, we don't need to produce everything. We just need to produce and own the IP for things that are really hard to make. Such as chips, quantum computing, jet engines, EV batteries etc. Does it really matter if we don't make our own shoes or toilet paper?
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
horse said:
Maybe Huawei is not bluffing, and Ren Zhengfei got a couple of aces in his hole cards.

Hauwei is on record somewhere that they next they would be a target after the ZTE and started preparing.

The key should be the levels of the stockpile they are reputed to have. There are two questions there.

1. Is the stockpile just a knee jerk reaction, just make enough chips to stockpile then try to solve the chip supply problem later. OR ...

2. Is the stockpile levels designed to last until all the new supply sources becomes available, that Ren Zhengfei has a very reasonable idea what will happen in terms of the semiconductor plans inside China. That no one knows, until next year.

That's business. You make your best judgement based on incomplete information.

Judging by body language, they ain't bluffing.

:)
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As of 24 May, Huawei said they had 18-24 months of chips.

It's been 3months since then, so I would expect them to have increased stockpiles further

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
free_6ix9ine said:
I disagree, we don't need to produce everything. We just need to produce and own the IP for things that are really hard to make. Such as chips, quantum computing, jet engines, EV batteries etc. Does it really matter if we don't make our own shoes or toilet paper?
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Basically you're agreeing with him that China should have an entirely independent technology supply chain.

China can already make the easy stuff domestically, as the barriers are low and companies have already decided there is some profit to be made.

And you already agree that difficult stuff needs Chinese IP and producers.

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But my view is that China needs to cultivate an entirely non-US technology ecosystem.

In 10-15 years time, the Australian government white papers project China to have a domestic economy twice the size of the USA.
So China should be able to use domestic sales revenue to devote enough R&D spending to replace all US technology.

It would be more efficient if there was a single global technology market.
But since US technology is no longer available, China has no choice but to replace all traces of US technology, no matter how long it takes.

From a financial perspective, the good news is that we could see Chinese R&D spending growing to 2x that of the USA in the next 5-10 years
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
Basically you're agreeing with him that China should have an entirely independent technology supply chain.

China can already make the easy stuff domestically, as the barriers are low and companies have already decided there is some profit to be made.

And you already agree that difficult stuff needs Chinese IP and producers.

---

But my view is that China needs to cultivate an entirely non-US technology ecosystem.

In 10-15 years time, the Australian government white papers project China to have a domestic economy twice the size of the USA.
So China should be able to use domestic sales revenue to devote enough R&D spending to replace all US technology.

It would be more efficient if there was a single global technology market.
But since US technology is no longer available, China has no choice but to replace all traces of US technology, no matter how long it takes.

From a financial perspective, the good news is that we could see Chinese R&D spending growing to 2x that of the USA in the next 5-10 years
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we are on the same page. Of course we need to have domestic ecosystem, but also I hope we can export our IP, tech, and standards to other countries which are neutral or not US allies.

Of course its a long process, there should be some focus though. Identify which areas are critical and which are less critical. It's a balancing act, because there is nothing that is certain.

lastly in terms or choke points, besides semiconductors and commercial aviation, I can't really think of anything that is a technological choke point. Maybe there are some niche things, but chips and aviation are the two major ones.

The other choke point that is not technology is ofcourse sanctions and the financial system. China needs to do something about the outdated financial system to overcome this.

Now Trump may lose the election, it gives China some breathing room to find remedies for these choke points. So they can be prepared for another hawkish administration.
 
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galvatron

Junior Member
Registered Member
nugroho said:
Beside semiconductor, there are a lot of things that China still import a lot like Helium gas, high grade chemical, etc. I don't say China cant produce them, but if USA blocked all China need, China will suffer a lot too.

Better give them asymetrical ban, like banning GM and Ford, they will bankrupt without China.
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They better do it now just when Tesla is taking share from GM's gasoline cars. Maybe shift some orders from Boeing to Airbus.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
galvatron said:
They better do it now just when Tesla is taking share from GM's gasoline cars. Maybe shift some orders from Boeing to Airbus.
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People advocating retaliation has no understanding of the geopolitical dynamics of what is going on. First of all, Trump only cares about one thing which is getting reelected, he doesn't care about how GM or Boeing is doing, he doesn't care about Apple, he doesnt dare about anyone or anything besides his own election. Attacking China in his mind is good for his reelection, and hawks like Pompeo are happy to push for more attacks.

Even if you ban GM or Boeing. that will do absolutely nothing. It's not like GM or Boeing has any pull to change Trump's mind.

There is good reason not to retaliate because China has only one allie left in the US and it's companies who do business in China. And after Trump is gone, China is relying on these companies to lobby the new administration to ease sanctions.
 
K

KYli

Brigadier
free_6ix9ine said:
People advocating retaliation has no understanding of the geopolitical dynamics of what is going on. First of all, Trump only cares about one thing which is getting reelected, he doesn't care about how GM or Boeing is doing, he doesn't care about Apple, he doesnt dare about anyone or anything besides his own election. Attacking China in his mind is good for his reelection, and hawks like Pompeo are happy to push for more attacks.

Even if you ban GM or Boeing. that will do absolutely nothing. It's not like GM or Boeing has any pull to change Trump's mind.

There is good reason not to retaliate because China has only one allie left in the US and it's companies who do business in China. And after Trump is gone, China is relying on these companies to lobby the new administration to ease sanctions.
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In order to get reelected, Trump needs to show the world that he is winning. Trump might not care about Boeing or GM but he does like all those CEO calling and begging him for favors. Trump also needs to take into consideration of all those Boeing employees. Sanctioning Comac would not help Trump much as not many people in the US knows about it. Since Comac doesn't even have a competitive product, most Americans wouldn't give a damn. However, if China retaliated and banned Boeing, then thousands of jobs would be lost in Boeing. That isn't called winning in the eyes of Trump or the public. Same thing with GM, banning GM doesn't hurt China but it would ensure hurt Americans.

The days of corporate Americans being an ally of China is numbered. Basically, the US has barred Chinese companies from operating in the US. It isn't the same level playing field anymore. Many American companies also are moving their operations to other countries and that including their contractors. In the end of the day, American companies won't contribute to China much except making money inside China but at the same time Chinese companies are barred or limited to do so in the US.

If American companies are helping its government to destroy Chinese companies, then they are no allies of China. China should retaliate and should do so in a way that send a message. I don't recommend tit for tat but a strong response is overdo. Who wins the election shouldn't be China concerns. The only reason why China should be caution is the fact that Trump might do some foolish things if he is desperate enough. However, Trump seems to target not only China but also Iran and middle east. Iran nuclear deal and the snapback sanction would probably is his next card to play for distraction.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
KYli said:
In order to get reelected, Trump needs to show the world that he is winning. Trump might not care about Boeing or GM but he does like all those CEO calling and begging him for favors. Trump also needs to take into consideration of all those Boeing employees. Sanctioning Comac would not help Trump much as not many people in the US knows about it. Since Comac doesn't even have a competitive product, most Americans wouldn't give a damn. However, if China retaliated and banned Boeing, then thousands of jobs would be lost in Boeing. That isn't called winning in the eyes of Trump or the public. Same thing with GM, banning GM doesn't hurt China but it would ensure hurt Americans.

The days of corporate Americans being an ally of China is numbered. Basically, the US has barred Chinese companies from operating in the US. It isn't the same level playing field anymore. Many American companies also are moving their operations to other countries and that including their contractors. In the end of the day, American companies won't contribute to China much except making money inside China but at the same time Chinese companies are barred or limited to do so in the US.

If American companies are helping its government to destroy Chinese companies, then they are no allies of China. China should retaliate and should do so in a way that send a message. I don't recommend tit for tat but a strong response is overdo. Who wins the election shouldn't be China concerns. The only reason why China should be caution is the fact that Trump might do some foolish things if he is desperate enough. However, Trump seems to target not only China but also Iran and middle east. Iran nuclear deal and the snapback sanction would probably is his next card to play for distraction.
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Nope, if China banned Boeing, and Trump was afraid of joblosses, he would just get Powell to print a trillion dollars to buy boeing planes for the military or something. Like how he bought off the farmers by giving them corporate welfare.

Besides, if you ban boeing or Apple it sends a bad message and will deter future foreign investment. Also, your making it seem like Trump is actually rational or is mentally well or can even think one day ahead.

The only thing that can be done is make progress on chip fabrication.

Sanctions on Comac could be a problem, but they don't even have a product yet, so that's more like a speed bump. We will have to cross that bridge when we get there.

Financial sanctions such as cutting off China from US dollar could happen, but that would also spell the end or the USD as well. So it's not a huge risk right now. Mnuchin knows this and this is probably the only red line that cannot be crossed.

HOWEVER, it is still absolutely imperative that China gets its act together and reduce reliance on the USD for exports. New technology like DCEP is a start, but the financial system needs an overhaul and must be more accessible to foreigners without endangering financial stability.
 
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