News on China's scientific and technological development.

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nugroho

Junior Member
muddie said:
China can play the rare earth metals card but might be too premature giving election is around the corner. IMO it's also not in China's interest to further heighten tensions given that the Trump administration might be on it's last leg and inflaming tensions could play into Trump's hand of distracting the election process and focus.

Targeting U.S. companies is counterproductive because these companies are already under a lot of fire from the Trump administration for doing business in China. If China singles out U.S. tech companies and punishes them when they have done nothing wrong, then you are giving them incentive to move away.

It should be the other way around IMO, where China tries to draw more business from U.S. companies, especially after many of these companies lost profits from COVID. Tensions with China are already worrying many U.S. companies because it could mean lost profits. Let the U.S. firms figure it out with Trump.
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Beside semiconductor, there are a lot of things that China still import a lot like Helium gas, high grade chemical, etc. I don't say China cant produce them, but if USA blocked all China need, China will suffer a lot too.

Better give them asymetrical ban, like banning GM and Ford, they will bankrupt without China.
 
free_6ix9ine

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
nugroho said:
Beside semiconductor, there are a lot of things that China still import a lot like Helium gas, high grade chemical, etc. I don't say China cant produce them, but if USA blocked all China need, China will suffer a lot too.

Better give them asymetrical ban, like banning GM and Ford, they will bankrupt without China.
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No point retaliating right now, China needs advocates from company like GM etc. Better wait until Trump is out of office to negotiate.
Trump admin is trying to bait China into retaliating, so it ruins the relationship with companies like GM or APPLE which have a big say in the next administration. Looks like Trump admin is on their last leg anyways.

This doesn't mean defeat, its just buying more time to rip out US equipment. Hard to create an entire supply chain immediately from scratch.
 
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s002wjh

Junior Member
i heard US is going after MediaTek for selling chips to Huawei, not sure Huawei phone can survive this if US push MediaTek to stop selling chips to Huawei.

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The U.S. DOC announced overnight it has added 38 Huawei affiliates to the U.S. government's economic blacklist amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing.

The new measures raised the total to 152 affiliates on the list since Huawei was first added in May 2019.
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horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
I think they are confident that Trump will start making exceptions once the sanctions starts genuinely hurting U.S. businesses. Remember how they kept extending the deadline for Huawei gear in U.S. countryside?
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Maybe Huawei is not bluffing, and Ren Zhengfei got a couple of aces in his hole cards.

Hauwei is on record somewhere that they next they would be a target after the ZTE and started preparing.

The key should be the levels of the stockpile they are reputed to have. There are two questions there.

1. Is the stockpile just a knee jerk reaction, just make enough chips to stockpile then try to solve the chip supply problem later. OR ...

2. Is the stockpile levels designed to last until all the new supply sources becomes available, that Ren Zhengfei has a very reasonable idea what will happen in terms of the semiconductor plans inside China. That no one knows, until next year.

That's business. You make your best judgement based on incomplete information.

Judging by body language, they ain't bluffing.

:)
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
horse said:
Maybe Huawei is not bluffing, and Ren Zhengfei got a couple of aces in his hole cards.

Hauwei is on record somewhere that they next they would be a target after the ZTE and started preparing.

The key should be the levels of the stockpile they are reputed to have. There are two questions there.

1. Is the stockpile just a knee jerk reaction, just make enough chips to stockpile then try to solve the chip supply problem later. OR ...

2. Is the stockpile levels designed to last until all the new supply sources becomes available, that Ren Zhengfei has a very reasonable idea what will happen in terms of the semiconductor plans inside China. That no one knows, until next year.

That's business. You make your best judgement based on incomplete information.

Judging by body language, they ain't bluffing.

:)
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They’ve started stockpiling back in 2018. Even without rapprochement the chips can last till next year.
 
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Orthan

Senior Member
ansy1968 said:
About the SMIC, if they were able to produce chip using the SMEE equipment will they still be sanction is they produce it for Huawei. What I know is most of the SMIC equipment had American component to it, and maybe costly to replace it all.
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Since it uses US tech, SMIC will also be sanctioned if it supplies to huawei, thats what i assume by the looks of it.
 
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PikeCowboy

Junior Member
^but it already has a 14nm production line and SMEE will be providing future 14nm production capacity... beyond that what are the chances SMIC was going to be able to source EUV for 7 and 5nm anyway?
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
free_6ix9ine said:
Huawei isn't worried because Trump will be out of office soon. The new administration is stuffed with dark money from superpacs linked to chip equipment makers. Sooner or later these sanctions will be eased if not withdrawn. US chip equipment makers are threatening to leave the country to de-americanize their technology so they can access the world's largest market for chip equipment.

Kind of like when the US banned American satellites from being launched on Chinese rockets in the 90s. Basically a lot of companies moved to Europe and started marketing their satellites as non-US tech. And the US satellite industry which held 95% of the market share before the ban, now reduced to only 30%. This is going to happen with chip equipment as well.

Sanctions are a double edge sword. Why china has no commercial aircraft industry? Because America sells China Boeing planes. If China was sanctioned, then our commercial aircraft industry would be much more advanced.
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Now that you mention it, commercial aircraft might be next on the American sanctions list. One cannot expect the Trump Administration to be rational.
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
I think Huawei understands the importance of indigenization as much as the next person but it isn’t feasible to create entire supply chains out of scratch within the short timeframe of two years.
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It isn't just Huawei, it is China. Any thing that is worth producing, China should have the capability of producing domestically. What the Trump Administration is doing and has done to Huawei and ZTE should serve as a lesson for China to have the ENTIRE creative, productive, and supply chain of any manufacturing industry located domestically, without exception. It will take time, but that should be the eventual goal.
 
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KYli

Brigadier
Sanctioning China commercial aircraft industry isn't going to hurt China that much. China doesn't export that much of commercial aircraft now or foreseeable future. The sanction would only delay China from producing domestic aircraft but couldn't stop it. China could retaliate by sanctioning Boeing and just buying airbus which would severely hurt Boeing and its survival. Therefore, China local airlines industry would be fine. Comac would be forced to delay and wait for local parts to be certified but it would eventually be able to produce aircraft with domestic inputs.

As for Huawei, many of the chips such as servers from intel and AMD or FPGA programmable chips from Xilinx can be bought off shelf from distributors or resellers. It would be much more costly and stockpile too much may make your supplies outdate but as long as Huawei can still access those chips that its AI, Cloud and networking divisions should still be fine.
 
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