The main risk I can see from retaliating as we come closer to elections is that any damaging Chinese retaliation may cause an unpredictable U.S. reaction, especially given the current state of the U.S. and shortsightedness of the Trump administration.
By escalating tensions right now, China might unintentionally cause the U.S. to further make reckless moves that harm all parties, including neutral countries. If Trump feels trapped and is on his way out, why would he not try to further escalate tensions with China especially if China retaliates giving him a semi-valid reason to do so?
The Trump Administration is clearly not logical and rationale as of this moment and you cannot engage in any negotiations with an irrational party. IMO China is waiting to see election results before making a move.
1. You analyzed it well, however if I was CCP, I would retaliate immediately, and then up the ante. That Iran China deal, that was the CCP telling Trump et al that they intend to be the new main player in that area of the world.
2. After four years, President Trump and the minions around him have proven themselves to be inept. It is just like any other game, like hockey or football. The team with the stupid players or weaker players, the longer they play the game, the more games they will lose.
Let's face two basic facts. After four years of Trump, China has strengthen its leading 5G position. After four years of Trump, China has strengthen its position in the Middle East via Iran. After four years of Trump, China will be tied closer to ASEAN than before. After four years of Trump, and a pandemic, the US economy looks unstable, unlike the Chinese economy.
Yet, all we hear from the media is how the Americans are gonna contain China! After four years of Trump that is all we hear and are going to hear. It is like what Orwell wrote, a foot stamping on a human face, forever!
We can insert one's preferred profanity at this moment, here, hew haw!
