News on China's scientific and technological development.

Petrolicious88 said:

Except it’s not. Tech decoupling is bad for both US and China, but it’s obviously worse for China given that US is still stronger overall. China needs to attract global talent, build up an alliance system for international cooperation in R&D.

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Um ...

Facts are important.

The only area where the United States has a not small advantage in tech is some areas of the IC supply chain.

Outside of that, the United States has no significant leads or advantages over China in critical tech. Not anymore.

Some areas China has surpassed the United States in tech and is accelerating its efforts. One of the best examples is quantum computing and quantum communications. The Chinese quantum satellite has been in the sky for about 6 years. No American equivalent has ever appeared.


When it is commercialized, the the advantages tend to be almost all in China's favour, except the last one of IC.


IC is really Custard's Last Stand for the Americans.

That is why some US politicians are going nutso.

Oh yes the logic of those that feared China would build aircraft carriers. They said it takes 50 years to master aircraft carriers so why should China bother? Then why do you fear China having aircraft carriers?

citycitycity said:

Life sciences, machine tools, industrial automation, commercial aerospace, specialty chemicals, scientific instrumentation, automotive..., it's a long long list

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All sectors where Chinese companies are having double digits growth every year

citycitycity said:

Life sciences, machine tools, industrial automation, commercial aerospace, specialty chemicals, scientific instrumentation, automotive..., it's a long long list

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Pretty much all false what you are saying here.

citycitycity said:

Life sciences, machine tools, industrial automation, commercial aerospace, specialty chemicals, scientific instrumentation, automotive..., it's a long long list

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Give it a decade or two, Sleepystudent, and it will be the shortest possible list: an empty one. You know why? Because China is even more persistent than you are. US sanctions can't stop it - China bypasses US measures like you bypass IP checks.

horse said:

Pretty much all false what you are saying here.

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Sleepy is the sort of guy who was cheering on Trump when he started the trade war because he thought that China would collapse the next day

citycitycity said:

China doesn't have a top 10 pharma, biotech, instrumentation or medtech firm
China doesn't have a successful large commercial aircraft
China runs large trade deficits in machine tools and industrial automation with US allies/slaves Germany and Japan
*same thing with chemicals

According to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology figures for 2018, of the more than 130 key basic chemical materials, 32 percent varieties were still blank in China and 52 percent remained dependent on imports.

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For dismissing China so much, the US for sure feels quite threatened and is in Panik mode now. I am sure they know something that you don't.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Give it a decade or two, Sleepystudent, and it will be the shortest possible list: one with no items on it.

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Heh. It will not take that long.

Let's see where they are at in 5 years.

If IC decouples in 5 years, then all tech decouples in 5 years I would think between America and China. Or at least if the IC decouples, all tech will have the potential to decouple.

Actually, it is the economic question that is interesting in 5 years from now.

A tech decoupling should mean different tech standards. Since tech will be central to a nation's well being, everyone must use tech.

If a country has to use tech, and the decoupling makes the tech from America and China incompatible, then countries will have to choose whose tech to use.

A decoupling ultimately is a economic battle. Will more people use Chinese tech, or American tech?

In that article posted a couple of posts earlier, as of today the majority of the world uses Chinese tech, but built with global standards.

If those standards split due to decoupling, then will more people use American tech or less? It is a weird strategy. Simply because they do not own the factors of production in many industries.

But Sleepy will tell us something else, lol.

That poster is good for the critical thinking skills. Although some might get bored, then the delete button come out!

Horror!

The internet is such a brutal place!?

citycitycity said:

America wins by knocking a few dozen basis points off China's GDP growth here and there until the power balances favor America and the US can then do whatever it wants

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You are some kind of special, Sleepystudent. "All I have to do is make a few good investments here and there and until I become the world's first trillionaire and then I can do whatever I want." The only difference between my previous sentence and what you wrote is that I have a much better chance of succeeding than America.

You know why? Because China is more persistent than you are. It nullifies anything the US throws at it like you get around IP checks.

citycitycity said:

Not panic. Just taking administrative actions to stymie China's economic growth

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Administrative actions = SDF mod IP checks. China's economic growth = you posting.

citycitycity said:

Life sciences, machine tools, industrial automation, commercial aerospace, specialty chemicals, scientific instrumentation, automotive..., it's a long long list

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Longer before, not so long now, shorter to come. Chinese scientific papers lead the US. Chinese manufacturing is unrivaled in the world. You had to add "commercial" in from of aerospace but you wouldn't have had to 10 years ago. Automative is funny; everyone knows American cars are the worst; Chinese EVs will dominate the future.

citycitycity said:

China doesn't have a top 10 pharma, biotech, instrumentation or medtech firm
China doesn't have a successful large commercial aircraft
China runs large trade deficits in machine tools and industrial automation with US allies/slaves Germany and Japan
*same thing with chemicals

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China runs an overall trade surplus and anytime they try the deny to China, China will make it. It's just necessity; there is nothing that the Chinese brain cannot solve.

citycitycity said:

According to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology figures for 2018, of the more than 130 key basic chemical materials, 32 percent varieties were still blank in China and 52 percent remained dependent on imports.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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And nearly all global rare earths depend on China. Is it tech or necessity?

citycitycity said:

Every econometric model (and China's unhappiness at the tariffs) indicated that the balance of losses would be more heavily borne by China.

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I know COVID made it hard to isolate the effects of the trade war but looking at China's growth and overall state of the economy vs America's highly unbalanced economy just coming out of recession, it's clear that the US choked in that time period and China jumped over it. Then you have "American" trade rep Tai saying we need to recouple LOL. America lost the shit it started.

citycitycity said:

Collapse? No. America wins by knocking a few dozen basis points off China's GDP growth here and there

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It wins by being in recession last year while China grew, and then even in its recovery year, grew slower than China did on top of growth? So that in 2 years, China topped 10% while the US barely hit 2 with inflation and job market crisis and that's a win? LOL That's some impressive "winning." More to come if that's what you like... and even if that's not what you like but have to pretend to like it just to get by the day. I guess the only copium you can come up with in the mean time is to pretend that whatever China grew by, it would have been more had America not played its sad little game but that logic applies everywhere, even in reverse. Maybe the US wouldn't have had a recession last year had China not knocked it down a few points

citycitycity said:

until the power balances favor America and the US can then do whatever it wants

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And everything after until is your imagination, which is completely against the trends of real life that see China growing faster and more healthily.

citycitycity said:

Not panic. Just taking administrative actions to stymie China's economic growth

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Fear and panic. The US always wastes its energy trying to sabotage but then China grows just fine and the US finds that it failed to keeps its own backyard in order and falls further behind China's continuous growth.

citycitycity said:

Not panic. Just taking administrative actions to stymie China's economic growth

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This is the precise reason why the Americans are losing to China.

This will be the exact reason why the Americans will lose badly to China in this tech war.

The trade war, the tech war, that is fought by businesses, and by engineers.

But according to the Americans, the trade war and tech war is being fought by politicians and bureaucrats.

This is not bringing a knife to a gunfight, this is bringing rubber band slingshots to a gunfight.

Panic city!