*New J-10 Thread*

[crobato]

No need. The model is still so technically correct, it makes a good illustration of the hardpoints.

 

[Indianfighter]

Hmmm, so salyut makes rd-93s? i thought those were klimov engines. Or is UMPO the maker of rd-93s?

RD-93 engines are manufactured by Klimov of Russia. The Al-31 engines are manufactured by NPO Saturn.

 

[unknauthr]

J-10 Production as Projected by US DIA

Don't know if anyone else caught it, but the DoD's annual 2006 report did include a couple of interesting US intelligence projections for J-10 production totals.

• The report indicates that the J-10 completed development trials in 2004 (which most of us knew from the web)
• It also suggests that the US DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) has projected J-10 production at 1,200 copies, over the life of the program. That's far more than anyone has suggested for PLAAF Su-27/Su-30/J-11 procurement. If true, the J-10 will easily become the most important fighter type in the PLAAF over the next decade.

Aviation Week also picked up this item in their publication this week.

 

[Twix101]

I've got a question about the radar, there will be a electronic phased array radar or it will still use a mechanic phased array radar ?

And another question, it will receive a dedicated Electronic War suit or not ?

 

[tphuang]

Re: J-10 Production as Projected by US DIA

Don't know if anyone else caught it, but the DoD's annual 2006 report did include a couple of interesting US intelligence projections for J-10 production totals.

• The report indicates that the J-10 completed development trials in 2004 (which most of us knew from the web)
• It also suggests that the US DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) has projected J-10 production at 1,200 copies, over the life of the program. That's far more than anyone has suggested for PLAAF Su-27/Su-30/J-11 procurement. If true, the J-10 will easily become the most important fighter type in the PLAAF over the next decade.

Aviation Week also picked up this item in their publication this week.

yes, those two assessments are correct. The exact number of J-10s is an unknown at this point. It all depends on two things:
1. how fast it will take for China to develop the 5th generation plane
2. whether or not CAC got the contract for one of the two types (I think China will either go with one type of J-xx or two types (hi-lo configuration))

Don't know exactly what J-10's radar is currently. There is no proof that it has moved beyond slotted array radar. Although, the capability of which must be upgraded since it first came out.

You can check the JF-17 thread for the translated article on JF-17's avionics suite (including it's EW suite, RWR and MAW). J-10 should do at least that well.

 

[MIGleader]

Re: J-10 Production as Projected by US DIA

Just a comment:
Well, at current production rates, it would take china precisely 16.666 to 23 years to produce all 1200 j-10s.

The is assuming production rate at 4-6 a month and no new lines will be set up(unlikely). of course, only around 700 of those j-10s will be in serivce at a time, coz early ones (2002-2012) will be retired.

 

[Totoro]

I dont believe a 23 year old plane would normally be retired. I would think that, in the given procurement scenario, majority of the 1200 planes would remain in service.

It really does depend on whether j10 is some sort of semi-interim solution before 5th gen one-engine fighter gets produced or are there no serious plans to replace j10s any time soon. If china wants to catch up - former route is a must.

I would think that production rates for previous airplanes like j7s and j8s - when they reached they peak, could serve as a decent guideline. j11s have been under production for quite some time now but they've never really gotten over 2 a month limit. Sure, its a bigger plane but also in a way more old fashioned.

If i must give a figure, i'd say production will max out at around 50 a year, and that might happen in the coming years, certainly before 2010. Which would then mean some 700 or so planes produced by 2020 by which time i'm hoping 5th gen plane will start production instead of j10s being produced. Actual replacement of then existing j10s by new planes i dont see before 2030.

 

[MIGleader]

J-10 does not have to be replaced by a new fighter, it can supplement it. The fighter is clearly not an interim solution. J-11 production is probably more of an interim. SAC will probably cease j-11 production when the j-xx comes out.

 

[unknauthr]

J-10 does not have to be replaced by a new fighter, it can supplement it. The fighter is clearly not an interim solution. J-11 production is probably more of an interim. SAC will probably cease j-11 production when the j-xx comes out.

I would tend to lean in favor of this assessment. Think of the J-10 as being the equivalent to the F-16 or F-35 in the USAF inventory: a multirole fighter, assigned primarily (>60% of the time) to air-to-ground operations.

The J-XX is likely to be the next air superiority fighter, similar in role to the F-15C or F-22. During the 1991 Gulf War, for example, within the USAF, the air superiority role was the exclusive domain of the F-15C.

The J-10 and J-XX are therefore complimentary in role, not competitors.

 

[Bueller]

During the 1991 Gulf War, for example, within the USAF, the air superiority role was the exclusive domain of the F-15C.

Three major reasons for that.

1. Slammers weren't available to the Vipers yet.
2. Albinos couldn't move mud whereas Vipers were great at moving mud.
3. The Eagle Mafia (which really caused the first two and a slew of other "deficiencies" for non-Eagle fighters).

If China insists on having the J-XX being a dedicated air superiority fighter, their thinking is absolete and they will be wasting a lot of resources.