You're assuming Toyota will be able to rtain their US market share after other auto makers, American ones especially, are forced to increase US sales to make up for losing sales elsewhere.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
Overtaking Toyota would occur once Toyota is pushed out of the Chinese market.
Last year, Toyota sold 2.1M in the US but 1.94M in China. That 160K will be more than made up by the growth of the Chinese market which as China's per capita income increases is expected to be up 38M by 2030.*
I think that is a conservative figure. Rapid increase in per capita income plus more affordable cars plus massive expansion and advancement in charging infrastructure means we should be nearing what developed countries consume on average. I think 40M to even over 45M cars in the Chinese domestic market is actually not unreasonable.
Remember, China bought 26M cars in 2023 on a per capita income of $12500. And that is an bad year beset by RE unwinding, trade wars and Covid vestiges. By 2030, the projection from PwC is over $20000 for per capita income while others have $18000 on the low end.
The US market at 16M in 2023 won't be growing much larger.
Just holding a dominant position in China with Toyota wiped out from there can give BYD or any other Chinese firm the top spot without the US market.
According to projections by the Society of Automotive Engineering of China, the country’s car sales in 2030 will be 38 million, of which the sales of EVs will be 15 million, or 40%.
not easy, but doable. if they keep expanding in global south at current pace. They can probably selling 6 million in China alone. Add in 2 million abroad. Also, China tends to alway sell more toward the end of the year. So, they could outsell Toyota in one or two months but not the whole year.
Toyota and Hyundai will have to compete more in the US market, as they are being kicked out of China. Maybe they can sell more in India, which is thriving, but the Indians will always find ways of taking advantage of foreign investors.
I have a thread here of the overall analysis on BYD sales this month
hitting 4m is pretty easy. they probably hit 4.1m. Whether they hit 500k in Dec is a big question.
Now, Chines NEV sales in Sep vs last year. Huge movement upward for Leapmotor. Only one down are GAC Aion and Neta
hitting 4m is pretty easy. they probably hit 4.1m. Whether they hit 500k in Dec is a big question.
Now, Chines NEV sales in Sep vs last year. Huge movement upward for Leapmotor. Only one down are GAC Aion and Neta
Literally L move. I demand fair representation for 十六国.
No worry, hundreds of names within Spring and Autumn periods are ready to go.
the reality for a shitty automaker like GWM is that your sale will go down because you are late to the NEV game and relies on export sales to survive
Norway is a small country but it could serve as example of what might we see in China going forward. It is very, very possible to have EVs overwhelmingly dominate a domestic car market.
Obviously a continental sized country like China would need more range from batteries to reach that kind of dominance but it is really a matter of time.
I think this year might be the tipping point where the majority of Chinese sees EVs as their future and then percentage will go up as auto and battery tech advances.
There is already a locked in class of drivers -- taxis and Didi -- that will attain nearly 100% transition to EVs in just a few years. Cost advantages per mile driven are too great.
Once everyone is off the fence and the mass affordable models like the BYD Sea Gull proliferate then the entire Chinese market will explode. We'll see 35, 40, 45M cars in rapid succession within the coming decade.
Obviously a continental sized country like China would need more range from batteries to reach that kind of dominance but it is really a matter of time.
I think this year might be the tipping point where the majority of Chinese sees EVs as their future and then percentage will go up as auto and battery tech advances.
There is already a locked in class of drivers -- taxis and Didi -- that will attain nearly 100% transition to EVs in just a few years. Cost advantages per mile driven are too great.
Once everyone is off the fence and the mass affordable models like the BYD Sea Gull proliferate then the entire Chinese market will explode. We'll see 35, 40, 45M cars in rapid succession within the coming decade.