New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
yes, EV is a novelty but that can also be a drawback instead of an advantage. People are used to operating gasoline cars. So, for them switching from a Japanese/Korean brand to a Chinese brand might be a no brainer decision without any burden of changing the old mindset and habits.

Moreover, I don't agree that only EV can be technologically advanced. There is nothing stopping ICE cars from having the most advanced LIDAR, self-driving tech and awesome connectivity with all the devices. The only difference between an EV and an ICE car is the way you store energy. With ICE car you store energy using oil and you need to have an engine to generate power. With EV you of course have a battery.

You already see this with ICE cars starting to have massive touch screens and automated systems similar to EVs. So, again the choice becomes not "I want an EV with advanced tech", the choice becomes if both ICE cars and EVs have similar level of infotainment/self driving tech then "which type of energy/powertrain is the best suitable for me".

Moreover, if China wants to up the value chain then they need to export more and more cars. This will generate growth in GDP, people skill set and also advanced tech in vehicles regardless of whether its EV or not.
Fundamentally, Ice vehicles are mechanical and that just can’t react as fast as purely electrical systems. If you have both fully, then you have overweight vehicles.

That’s why PHEVs are popular now. They have all the advantages of EVs while also working with gas stations.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
yes, EV is a novelty but that can also be a drawback instead of an advantage. People are used to operating gasoline cars. So, for them switching from a Japanese/Korean brand to a Chinese brand might be a no brainer decision without any burden of changing the old mindset and habits.

Moreover, I don't agree that only EV can be technologically advanced. There is nothing stopping ICE cars from having the most advanced LIDAR, self-driving tech and awesome connectivity with all the devices. The only difference between an EV and an ICE car is the way you store energy. With ICE car you store energy using oil and you need to have an engine to generate power. With EV you of course have a battery.

You already see this with ICE cars starting to have massive touch screens and automated systems similar to EVs. So, again the choice becomes not "I want an EV with advanced tech", the choice becomes if both ICE cars and EVs have similar level of infotainment/self driving tech then "which type of energy/powertrain is the best suitable for me".

Moreover, if China wants to up the value chain then they need to export more and more cars. This will generate growth in GDP, people skill set and also advanced tech in vehicles regardless of whether its EV or not.

To clarify a few points.

I did mention that the novelty is specifically to western markets (i.e. Europe). Without the novelty of EV, it would be difficult to draw them away from something like Toyota or VW.

With technological advancement, I should have been clearer to specify powertrain-related innovation. With EV, there is still a lot of development with regards to range/efficiency, SiC microelectronics, layout (single motor, dual motor, tri, quad), ever growing power output etc.

In comparison, (non-Hybrid) ICE engines are talking about improvements in 1-2% Thermal efficiency in the past decade. The BIG innovation was supposed to be HCCI (Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition, ie. no Spark Plugs), finally brought to market in 2020 by Mazda after many manufacturers showed prototypes in the 2000's. Turns out the efficiency/power gains are simply not worth the cost.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

ICE cars can certainly have the same kind of advanced smart-driving features, in fact one of the first production LIDAR cars on the market was the Audi A8. However, advanced tech are still firmly luxury features, and luxury buyers are moving towards EVs due to better NVH characteristics, and preferred driving dynamics.

Infotainment features aren't even worth mentioning IMO. The carmakers are simply garbage in this respect. Even the much vaunted Tesla is often criticized. We already see from the budget models of Chinese automakers, it's basically just going to be a smartphone terminal for CarPlay/Android Auto.

Of course we have seen China's abilities to scale production drive costs down to everyone affordability, but there will always be limits.

Your idea of switching from a Korean/Japanese ICE car being a no-brainer is perfectly illustrating what I mean. Look no further than the aforementioned Chery which basically took over a swath of the Russian market of which Hyundai-Kia group were formerly two of the top sellers before sanctions. ICE sales are not technology-driven, it is all about availability, serviceability and marketing power. Economically important, but basically a dead-end technologically.

TL;DR version.
You are correct economically, but ICE is boring. Who wants to talk about it?
 

supercat

Major
China's EV batteries are affordable enough to change the world - the West: overcapacity!

China’s Batteries Are Now Cheap Enough to Power Huge Shifts​

We no longer need to model for when cell prices drop far enough to decarbonize road transport. That day is here.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China turned the table of the EV battery industry mainly by commercializing the LFP batteries.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
China's EV batteries are affordable enough to change the world - the West: overcapacity!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China turned the table of the EV battery industry mainly by commercializing the LFP batteries.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
I find this statement by Bloomberg dubious:
China’s battery production is already higher than global EV demand, and that overcapacity problem is set to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.


It's based on their own tracking of battery making capacity and then comparing with actual production - only problem is that any "production capacity", which hasn't been proven by actual production is highly speculative.

I happen to know of one example in particular - where Bloomberg NEF, already for 2022 - claimed Sweden has 16 GWh of production capacity, which refers to the company Northvolt.
Firstly: Northvolts actual target was reaching a rate of 16Gwh for 2023, which is already one year later. Secondly: They've had 3 confirmed delays since then and are currently targeting 16Gwh capacity for 2026.

Their actual production for 2022 was around 0.1 GWh. Going by Bloombergs numbers Sweden thus had an overcapacity of some 15000% for 2022.
For 2024 their aim is 1 Gwh (in reality they will probably be quite a bit worse.), giving Sweden a projected 1500% overcapacity in 2024.

While this is only one example, I wouldn't be surprised if the data they've compiled for China and other locations are equally bad. Would new factories even bother to quickly ramp up their production if they can't sell their products?

(Here's a breakdown from the BNEF data:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

S&P also has similar estimates, giving Sweden 32.5 GWh capacity in 2023:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

)
 
Last edited:

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
Even if there is a over capacity in EV battery production, it'll simply be absorbed by home storage market, there are literally millions of homes around the world looking to go semi-off grid by doing solar and battery combo.

Beyond that there's plenty of countries interested in battery load balancers, this is like complaining about producing too much oil.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jwt
Top