New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

Eventine

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Agreed. I think they're going to get hugely burned by this. Their own Huawei moment. Probably in 2025 - 2028.
They're probably banking on the % of ownership by foreign investors, particularly Berkshire Hathaway. Black Rock, Himalaya, etc. Having powerful Western institutional investors on your side can help defend against political action, which is a benefit that Huawei never had because it was privately owned.

Still, the national security block in the US has grown more influential over the years and I wouldn't underestimate their ability to sell out the financial block. Not everything American elites do is for money. Many of them are, in fact, mission driven ideologues who could care less about profits.

I also think Nvidia is currently the global sweet heart and there's a serious fear of missing out from Chinese companies. If you pay attention to the AI space, Nvidia and Open AI are the two companies on every one's lips. Executives at Chinese EV makers are stuck between a rock and a hard place - don't sign up with Nvidia and risk falling behind the global standard, or sign up with Nvidia and risk being sanctioned. Neither are great options, but I can see why they made the momentum play.
 

tphuang

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TBH this kind of tracks in context of BYD's other overseas engagements and pursuits in western nations.

It's rather consistent with their sense (or lack of) risk mitigation.
depends on what this is. If this turns out to be something where they need to develop LLM or ADAS for overseas market and as such use Nvidia AI cloud is one thing. Otherwise, it seems rather unwise. I'm not sure how it's allowed.

Agreed. I think they're going to get hugely burned by this. Their own Huawei moment. Probably in 2025 - 2028.
can you explain how they are going to get hugely burned by this? Be specific. Just saying comments like this doesn't mean anything
 

tphuang

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Japan is an "ally" of the US. So they are just being nice to their friend, so that they will help the US in containing some other countries..
If Chinese automakers can stay ahead of GM and Ford, that's their own problem. Besides, which Chinese automaker is entering the US market. Why the geopolitical commentary on hypothetical?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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depends on what this is. If this turns out to be something where they need to develop LLM or ADAS for overseas market and as such use Nvidia AI cloud is one thing. Otherwise, it seems rather unwise. I'm not sure how it's allowed.


can you explain how they are going to get hugely burned by this? Be specific. Just saying comments like this doesn't mean anything


^^
I guess Trump win, and his new team to double down for trade and technological war. However I believe BYD is already hugely self sufficient, so it won't be hugely burned, just a little scorch.
 

Michael90

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BYD, Hyper & XPeng are all picking Nvidia Thor for future EVs. Not a huge fan of this for any one of them, but especially BYD. I don't really care about using Thor itself, since I think only the Yangwang models are likely to use it. It's more concerning to me that they are going to use Nvidia AI infrastructure. That seems ripe to be cut off. At a time when US govt has its eyes on BYD.

Now, I've been told BYD has no interest in entering US PV market any time soon. This comes from WCF himself. But relying on Nvidia infrastructure is just not wise.

Well, you can't blame private Chinese companies for going for the best that the market has to offer. Private companies care little about nationalism or whatever they are after profits and providing the best most advanced products they can to their customers so they can get an edge over their competitors and gain market share. So they will do anything to achieve this which is normal..so the problem is not BYD or other adopting US software platforms/tech the problem is that equivalent Chinese software ADAS companies haven't caught up to Ndivia and still lag behind. So we cant force other companies to use less advanced tech just to please others ego. So I can't blame BYD. They do what they think is good for their business and to stay ahead of the competition by staying ahead of technology
 

tphuang

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^^
I guess Trump win, and his new team to double down for trade and technological war. However I believe BYD is already hugely self sufficient, so it won't be hugely burned, just a little scorch.

BYD won't enter US PV market. Too much heat there. It is expanding its relatively under the scene commercial vehicle business and ESS business. It has a factory in Lancaster and hires union labor. There is no issue there.

AI inference chips it uses from Nvidia isn't going to be many models. It's goal long term is to in house everything. But there is no issue buying some from Nvidia in short term to start production.
 

CMP

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depends on what this is. If this turns out to be something where they need to develop LLM or ADAS for overseas market and as such use Nvidia AI cloud is one thing. Otherwise, it seems rather unwise. I'm not sure how it's allowed.


can you explain how they are going to get hugely burned by this? Be specific. Just saying comments like this doesn't mean anything
USG has already demonstrated a clear track record that if they cannot buy another nation's technological crown jewel at fire sale prices, they will either start that very fire, or they will instead steal it via extortion/threats/blackmail (France and Japan having already been victims of this in the past). If that is not possible either, they will instead attempt to block and sanction it into oblivion (Huawei).

Western media has recently been showing a newfound understanding that BYD has the scale and price advantage, but as soon as they demonstrate ADAS competitiveness or superiority to Tesla, that is likely when the hammer will come down. BYD will quickly be deprived of access to not only Nvidia chips and API, but also access to any other Western or vassal technology/software/IP. Anything they develop, come to rely on, and/or integrate now that is not independent of the West and its vassals, is a massive achilles heel that USG/commerce department will almost definitely attempt to strike with a deathblow later on.

BYD won't enter US PV market. Too much heat there. It is expanding its relatively under the scene commercial vehicle business and ESS business. It has a factory in Lancaster and hires union labor. There is no issue there.

AI inference chips it uses from Nvidia isn't going to be many models. It's goal long term is to in house everything. But there is no issue buying some from Nvidia in short term to start production.
It starts with buying some now "in the short term" to start production. If that goes well, any accrued know-how and software advancement that stems from it (and of course relies on it) becomes a compelling business logic to scale up procurement, further increasing dependence. All this always comes at the expense of the hard and risky investments that are necessary to become independent. It's the exact same kind of snowballing business logic that led to Chinese dependence on Western and vassal chipmaking technology until "too late".
 
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4Runner

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BYD, Hyper & XPeng are all picking Nvidia Thor for future EVs. Not a huge fan of this for any one of them, but especially BYD. I don't really care about using Thor itself, since I think only the Yangwang models are likely to use it. It's more concerning to me that they are going to use Nvidia AI infrastructure. That seems ripe to be cut off. At a time when US govt has its eyes on BYD.

Now, I've been told BYD has no interest in entering US PV market any time soon. This comes from WCF himself. But relying on Nvidia infrastructure is just not wise.

I think it is a deliberate 2-legs-run strategy in that (1) BYD is going for the global #1 and (2) Huawei is going for the domestic particularly state-owned verticals. US and EU are going to find any excuse to stop or slow down carnages by the Chinese auto brands. Meanwhile, China cannot overtly block or hinder Nvidia etc. for now. Or at least it is a balancing act that would leave some wiggle rooms.
 

supersnoop

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This makes hybrids a no-brainer in high traffic, limited infrastructure countries such as Phillipines or Vietnam, as the massive fuel savings in gridlocked start stop traffic will quickly add up, the fact that hybrids don't really cost all that much more than a normal ICE card doesn't hurt either.
PHEVs are quite a bit more than regular ICE cars normally. BYD is basically an exception in this regard.

Theoretically possible, but US still hasn't forced Toyota to transfer its hybrid technology even though no US domestic manufacturer has a competent hybrid system.
Toyota's hybrid system hasn't been anything special for years now. US domestic manufacturers have had many 'competent' hybrids over the years (GM "2-mode" Hybrid [licensed by BMW], Chevy Volt, etc.), the problem was always their customers were not interested in it. However, that being said, the number 1 PHEV in the USA is the Wrangler 4xe.

BYD, Hyper & XPeng are all picking Nvidia Thor for future EVs. Not a huge fan of this for any one of them, but especially BYD. I don't really care about using Thor itself, since I think only the Yangwang models are likely to use it. It's more concerning to me that they are going to use Nvidia AI infrastructure. That seems ripe to be cut off. At a time when US govt has its eyes on BYD.

Now, I've been told BYD has no interest in entering US PV market any time soon. This comes from WCF himself. But relying on Nvidia infrastructure is just not wise.


You don't think they have any backup plan? I can't imagine any Chinese company not having one if they use nVidia. If we look at Geely, they have both Chinese platforms (Robosense) and Western (Luminar) for Lidar.
 
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