New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

ficker22 said:

Is it that they are still on the hopium trip, that if they integrate far enough into US ecosystem, that congress would be not so easily ready to ban chinese companies, since it would hurt US interests too? If true, very shortsighted

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Maybe these Chinese automakers just want to be competitive on the market until China's own GPU and chips mature. The situation is like avionics for civil airliners.

China's suppliers is now indispensable in the world's EV supply chain. For example, battery equipment supplier Lead Intelligent Equipment is already operating in multiple European countries, and it will soon provide battery making equipment for an American factory.

Electric Viking may have jumped the shark by claiming that BYD has scrapped its plan to build a factory in Mexico. However, BYD is expanding the Brazilian facility. They will build a residential complex that can house more than 4,200 workers.

CMP said:

USG has already demonstrated a clear track record that if they cannot buy another nation's technological crown jewel at fire sale prices, they will either start that very fire, or they will instead steal it via extortion/threats/blackmail (France and Japan having already been victims of this in the past). If that is not possible either, they will instead attempt to block and sanction it into oblivion (Huawei).

Western media has recently been showing a newfound understanding that BYD has the scale and price advantage, but as soon as they demonstrate ADAS competitiveness or superiority to Tesla, that is likely when the hammer will come down. BYD will quickly be deprived of access to not only Nvidia chips and API, but also access to any other Western or vassal technology/software/IP. Anything they develop, come to rely on, and/or integrate now that is not independent of the West and its vassals, is a massive achilles heel that USG/commerce department will almost definitely attempt to strike with a deathblow later on.

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BYD uses 3 legged approach when it comes to ADAS chips. It buys from Nvidia and Horizon. In fact, it is Horizon's largest customer. It also is working on its own chip. This is likely just for Dipilot-2000 platform.

So can you explain how will this block out BYD? At worst, you put multiple J6 or BYD's own chip in there. Algo you have full control over. So, what is the major risk in this part?

CMP said:

It starts with buying some now "in the short term" to start production. If that goes well, any accrued know-how and software advancement that stems from it (and of course relies on it) becomes a compelling business logic to scale up procurement, further increasing dependence. All this always comes at the expense of the hard and risky investments that are necessary to become independent. It's the exact same kind of snowballing business logic that led to Chinese dependence on Western and vassal chipmaking technology until "too late".

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again, they go 3 legged approach. Long term, BYD does everything in house, including lidar and cameras. They also started off in MMW radar by buying foreign. And then they bought domestic CIS and made their own in house.

supersnoop said:

You don't think they have any backup plan? I can't imagine any Chinese company not having one if they use nVidia. If we look at Geely, they have both Chinese platforms (Robosense) and Western (Luminar) for Lidar.

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They have multiple backup plan. I'm just not a fan of them using Nvidia AI infrastructure. I don't think using Thor is all that bad, but it will be annoying to change those couple of premium models to using domestic options if/when they get sanctioned on it

My other theory is that they are doing this for export models.

4Runner said:

I think it is a deliberate 2-legs-run strategy in that (1) BYD is going for the global #1 and (2) Huawei is going for the domestic particularly state-owned verticals. US and EU are going to find any excuse to stop or slow down carnages by the Chinese auto brands. Meanwhile, China cannot overtly block or hinder Nvidia etc. for now. Or at least it is a balancing act that would leave some wiggle rooms.

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BYD is far more vertically integrated than Huawei. It's not particularly close

supercat said:

Maybe these Chinese automakers just want to be competitive on the market until China's own GPU and chips mature. The situation is like avionics for civil airliners.

China's suppliers is now indispensable in the world's EV supply chain. For example, battery equipment supplier Lead Intelligent Equipment is already operating in multiple European countries, and it will soon provide battery making equipment for an American factory.

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Electric Viking may have jumped the shark by claiming that BYD has scrapped its plan to build a factory in Mexico. However, BYD is expanding the Brazilian facility. They will build a residential complex that can house more than 4,200 workers.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1769936088053776570

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Any tariffs on Lead Intelligent Equipment products from China?

GodRektsNoobs said:

Theoretically possible, but US still hasn't forced Toyota to transfer its hybrid technology even though no US domestic manufacturer has a competent hybrid system.

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Anyway, the reason Hybrids never really took off in United States was because they are typically more expensive than ICE equivalents. Also, their maintenance costs were never really properly communicated.

The American Big Three were never really focused on Hybrids because their sales model was 1/3rd cost-cutting and getting people into cheap vehicles, the other 2/3rds are TRUCKS and fleet sales. Walk into any Ford, Dodge, or Chevy dealership and the first things you'll see are giant trucks, and cheap cars with generous discounts/loan terms.

Conversely, you are very unlikely to find such discount tactics at a Toyota and Honda dealership as their bread-and-butter is reliability and perceived quality.


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On the broader topic, it's continually impressive how consistently Nvidia manages to forge these partnerships. 10/10 corporate execution honestly. I'd avoid being inherently scared of any Chinese/Nvidia partnerships. You have to consider the other side of this. Nvidia is well aware that USG will try to knee-cap any effort to assist a Chinese company either now or in the future. It is in Nvidia's interest to structure any deals/collaboration in such a way that would insulate their Chinese partners from reprisal/irrecoverable investments.

Jensen Huang doesn't give a hoot about US geopolitical ambitions. His religion is money.

tphuang said:

They have multiple backup plan. I'm just not a fan of them using Nvidia AI infrastructure. I don't think using Thor is all that bad, but it will be annoying to change those couple of premium models to using domestic options if/when they get sanctioned on it

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Almost assuredly this is the case.
As you mentioned, BYD has a plant in California with UAW labour. It is basically politically uncloseable
Since BYD is focusing on commercial sales in the US, they would benefit from greater automation like hotel shuttles, garbage trucks, etc. So I think it would be hard to sanction it. Maybe just limitations at most (max computing resources, etc.)
Even in the event the US goes nuclear, it would have to be careful to give BYD some returns otherwise they could just close the plant and put UAW workers out of the job.

my thoughts on BYD's plans as revealed by its decision to use Nvidia Isaac Perceptor for AMRs.

top 10 foreign brand in registration from this past week

BYD back to top everywhere for this week's registration numbers

BYD to start buidlng its factory in Indonesia

JD Auto already putting BYD models on their website. I've seen photo of numerous BYD vehicles at JD office

BYD Song L with its first OTA update

Yangwang U8 at UK's Goodwood media drive

byd increasing investment in Brazil


BYD/JD agreement covers many areas, including area that encroach on the dealers, we will see how this works out

so I think it's important to consider that Chinese conglomerate's natural inclination is going vertical integration. And Geely is doing that here with its own cockpit chip, AI chip and Lidars. It is buying Nvidia Thor + QCOM SoC also, but the former is only for higher end model. For mass market models, BYD and Geely are all going to design their own chips (likely 7nm) that will be fabbed at TSMC, but can transfer to SMIC if the situation arises that it needs to do so. Something from 256-1000 TOPS is well within the capability of all these firms.

The Cyrus Automobile 2024 Overseas Business Conference opened. More than 300 dealer representatives from 62 countries and regions around the world attended the conference.

Overseas distributors of Thalys visited Hongmeng Zhixing stores and couldn't put it down for the AITO m9.

Thalys will export a total of four models. AITO m5, AITO m7, AITOm9 and Thalys sf5

The name after export will be changed to Cyrus 5. Thalys 7, Thalys 9 and Thalys sf5