This Leapmotor deal is literally huge... as in the largest stake taken by a foreign automaker in a Chinese EV startup. It seems like the Dongfeng asset sale freed up the money to do this.
I imagine this will likely kill the VW-Leapmotor Jetta?
I think the big shakeup is coming. The industry will consolidate since cheap money is not on the table anymore. The start ups need capital to keep ramping up production and marketing, the old guard need a fresh blood transfusion. If the established automakers don't start making plays for the startups now, then the cost of acquisition or competition will only go up.
China Inc is racing ahead here BMW & MBG have no choice but to find Chinese partners Even if EU puts in tariffs on Chinese cars, BMW & MBG would still loose out to Tesla, VW, Audi & now Stellantis Big Q is what happens w/ Ford & GM Would be political nightmarish situation if Ford teamed up w/ BYD
For GM, their natural partnership would be to deepen their ties with SAIC. They are already making the Wuling EV together, and SAIC is already the leading exporter of EVs from China (excluding Tesla).
Li Shufu of Geely has personal holdings of MBz of roughly 10%. MBz also passed the smart brand into Geely's operation.
Ford and BMW don't have natural partners. I don't think BYD would tie up with Ford in any equity sense due to Ford's legacy burdens. That being said, they did divide up the company into Ford Blue and Ford New or whatever, so that could help. However, BYD has had no problems going on their own so far, so there is no urgency on their end. Plus they still have the full confidence of Buffet's lieutenant Charlie Munger. Ford could actually work with Great Wall (Haval) if politics was not an issue. Ford's trucks are their strongest performers, it would go well to work with GWM on that.
I think from some of the charts shown here, BMW EV Sales in China are okay so far. Their CEO says they expect the "Neue Klasse" platform to give some forward momentum, so I think they will be in a bit of a holding pattern.
Now the other question not addressed is "What about the SOE car makers?". These guys are lumbering dinosaurs, no one is talking about them (besides SAIC and the occasional interesting product), but they have all the factory and all the support of their respective local governments. They can come in at any time.
