Ultium batteries in the US are produced by LG Chem.
I wonder if LG is still providing the cells for China.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
I wonder if LG is still providing the cells for China.
Your source is from July 2022, which is before the IRA was signed into law and the details released in August 2022.
Furthermore it is listed as a blog entry, and is clearly marked as "estimates", not a limit
Your source is simply not credible
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In comparison, I've quoted the official analysis from FT/Goldman Sachs and also DLAPiper who are a global law firm, after they had a few days of going through the full IRA text.
It would also mean Goldman Sachs have made a monumental mistake in their research report which is now being quoted by the financial media, as they didn't spot the limit on the number of vehicles eligible for subsidies. And its not just Goldman. Ford also expects to see a huge increase in tax credit benefits after 2027 below. Have Ford also got their tax credit calculations wrong, because that would be catastrophic for them
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"From ’23 to ’26, we estimate a combined available tax credit for Ford and our battery
partners could total more than $7 billion with large step-up in annual credits in ’27 as our [joint venture] battery plants ramp up to full production."
electrek.co/2022/10/28/ford-ev-ira-tax-credit/#:~:text=Here's%20how%20the%20IRA%20tax,to%20half%20of%20the%20credit.
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If there was a limit, you would see automakers and dealers in the US saying you have to buy NOW, before the subsidy limit is reached.
But we don't see this happening.
Various sources below which all make the same point. The limit to the $7500 EV subsidy is the year 2032, not a dollar amount
linklaters.com/en/knowledge/publications/alerts-newsletters-and-guides/2022/august/23/climate-change-progress-the-inflation-reduction-act
eenews.net/articles/climate-law-spurs-big-jumps-in-u-s-battery-investments/
pluginamerica.org/inflation-reduction-act-ira-ev-incentives-explained/
electrek.co/2022/10/28/ford-ev-ira-tax-credit/#:~:text=Here's%20how%20the%20IRA%20tax,to%20half%20of%20the%20credit.
Call it Renhai and watch people freak out.
US subsidies on batteries is against WTO rules and should be removed.
CRFB does this for living. I'm pretty sure they know how to do estimates better than you and I.
Do you understand that the bill has a fixed amount? That's all the money that's allocated to it. Once that money has been used up, there is no more money. $369 billion is the total spending and there are so many categories that this spending is divided into. If you think EVs can get more than $36 billion, good for you. Whatever that amount is, it will still be far below $369 billion. Let's say $50 billion eventually gets used up for new EV purchases. That's a lot more than these estimate. Guess what, that's still only 5 million cars if we use the 10k subsidy per car criteria. Do you think America has the money and the willingness to dump $100 billion in EVs every couple of years?
| Clean Electricity Tax Credits | -$161 billion |
| Air Pollution, Hazardous Materials, Transportation and Infrastructure | -$40 billion |
| Individual Clean Energy Incentives | -$37 billion |
| Clean Manufacturing Tax Credits | -$37 billion |
| Clean Fuel and Vehicle Tax Credits | -$36 billion |
| Conservation, Rural Development, Forestry | -$35 billion |
| Building Efficiency, Electrification, Transmission, Industrial, DOE Grants and Loans | -$27 billion |
| Other Energy and Climate Spending | -$14 billion |
Even with sufficient subsidies, US EV industry won't beat China, especially not on cost. Do you know how silly you sound, name one manufacturing industry that China has indigenized which western countries can beat China on cost? Do you think this is the first time western governments have tried subsidies to beat Chinese manufacturing?
Most of those subsidies will end up boosting stock prices and go in the pockets of shareholders. This is a time-honored tradition in the US.
BYD now has over 6000 orders in Thailand.
Looks like it signed an agreement with Cambodians Ministry of transport. Maybe they will start delivering buses/trucks there?
The first Atto 3 delivery is starting in Denmark.
Song+ EV has 4 months wait time. Long lines. Even with the high production rate, they can't come close to meeting its demand.
BYD Yuan+ will start delivery in Brazil in December
This talks about byd's involvement in the Brazilian market. They have certainly gotten involved in the Brazilian economy in very strong ways.
Looks like it signed an agreement with Cambodians Ministry of transport. Maybe they will start delivering buses/trucks there?
The first Atto 3 delivery is starting in Denmark.
Song+ EV has 4 months wait time. Long lines. Even with the high production rate, they can't come close to meeting its demand.
BYD Yuan+ will start delivery in Brazil in December
This talks about byd's involvement in the Brazilian market. They have certainly gotten involved in the Brazilian economy in very strong ways.
More development news on sodium ion battery front. With where lithium prices are, I think it's inevitable that we are moving in the sodium ion direction for lower cost cars, mopeds and energy storage. Yes, BYD has denied the rumors. However, I think they are just saying that their cars won't be using sodium ion batteries by Q2 of next year. I do think they are moving in that direction. It does take time to scale up production.
And on the solid state battery front, they do need to build that up too for the premium brand. Looks like WeLion is already putting a gen-1 semi SSB in production. BYD is normally quite silent about its development so I would imagine it's quite far along.
Regardless, you cannot rely on LFP blade battery forever. There needs to be continuous innovation.
A good blurb here on BYD Seal
looks like it is cannibalizing some of Han sales, even though it is also taking sales away from Model 3 and XPeng. And looks like COVID outbreak is hurting sales.
Nice photos of the first look at the Ynawang off road model
And on the solid state battery front, they do need to build that up too for the premium brand. Looks like WeLion is already putting a gen-1 semi SSB in production. BYD is normally quite silent about its development so I would imagine it's quite far along.
Regardless, you cannot rely on LFP blade battery forever. There needs to be continuous innovation.
A good blurb here on BYD Seal
looks like it is cannibalizing some of Han sales, even though it is also taking sales away from Model 3 and XPeng. And looks like COVID outbreak is hurting sales.
Nice photos of the first look at the Ynawang off road model
You're fundamentally misunderstanding what the CRFB is reporting on.
See their updated blog post below from September 2022.
"By our estimates, the legislation includes $738 billion of offsets to fund roughly $499 billion of new spending and tax breaks. It would reduce deficits by $238 billion over a decade, including by more than $61 billion in 2031 before interest."
crfb.org/blogs/cbo-scores-ira-238-billion-deficit-reduction
They are very clear that the numbers reported are estimates. The CRFB numbers are not fixed.
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The CRFB references the CBO document which is clear that this is "Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 117-169"
On Section D "Part 4. Clean Vehicles". You can clearly see there is no budget authority line item (unlike in other sections which set a limit). The CBO just has an estimate of how much they think it will cost in terms of foregone revenue
cbo.gov/publication/58455
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