New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

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AndrewS

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coolgod said:
Even with sufficient subsidies, US EV industry won't beat China, especially not on cost. Do you know how silly you sound, name one manufacturing industry that China has indigenized which western countries can beat China on cost? Do you think this is the first time western governments have tried subsidies to beat Chinese manufacturing?

Most of those subsidies will end up boosting stock prices and go in the pockets of shareholders. This is a time-honored tradition in the US.
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I agree that the US can't beat China on actual production cost.

But we're talking about the cost after the US government has given US battery manufacturers what will be a very large subsidy.

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Tesla 4680 Battery Pack costs are currently $109 per KWh
CATL is currently at $80 which is cheaper.

But after the US government gives Tesla $45 in subsidies, the final cost to Tesla drops from $109 to only $64.
Now the Tesla packs are effectively cheaper than CATL which is at $80

Of course, once the US battery industry has grows large enough to matter, I expect the Chinese government to give out its own battery subsidies to compete

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Also remember that most (if not all) electric cars made by legacy auto in US are sold at a loss
So these subsidies will help make EVs profitable
Eventually it all ends up with the shareholders anyway, but the US plan is to ensure it has (at a minimum), a battery supply chain which is completely separate from China in 10 years time
 
tphuang

tphuang

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AndrewS said:
You're fundamentally misunderstanding what the CRFB is reporting on.
See their updated blog post below from September 2022.

"By our estimates, the legislation includes $738 billion of offsets to fund roughly $499 billion of new spending and tax breaks. It would reduce deficits by $238 billion over a decade, including by more than $61 billion in 2031 before interest."

crfb.org/blogs/cbo-scores-ira-238-billion-deficit-reduction

They are very clear that the numbers reported are estimates. The CRFB numbers are not fixed.

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The CRFB references the CBO document which is clear that this is "Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 117-169"

On Section D "Part 4. Clean Vehicles". You can clearly see there is no budget authority line item (unlike in other sections which set a limit). The CBO just has an estimate of how much they think it will cost in terms of foregone revenue

cbo.gov/publication/58455
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These are estimates from democrats senators own summary document
Energy Security and Climate Change $369 billion
Affordable Care Act Extension $64 billion

There is only so much money available. We don't have endless amount of money here in America for EVs. I don't know why this is so hard for you to understand. And if the cost of this gets out of control, I can assure you the Republicans will stop funding it. The Republicans are in control of the house now. We have gov't shutdowns and spending compromises every time this has happened. I don't think you quite under the political reality here in America.

There is not enough money in the budget for $50 billion tax credit to EV industry every year for 10 years. Can you name one other industry that America has given that much handouts too?
 
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tphuang

tphuang

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AndrewS said:
Tesla 4680 Battery Pack costs are currently $109 per KWh
CATL is currently at $80 which is cheaper.

But after the US government gives Tesla $45 in subsidies, the final cost to Tesla drops from $109 to only $64.
Now the Tesla packs are effectively cheaper than CATL which is at $80

Of course, once the US battery industry has grows large enough to matter, I expect the Chinese government to give out its own battery subsidies to compete
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Let's make a couple of things clear here. The current Tesla 4680 is not free of Chinese supply chain. Using a fully non-Chinese supply chain would significantly increase its cost.

Secondly (more importantly), Tesla 4680 is vaporware pushed out by the Tesla hype machine. Until Tesla is able to produce 40/50 GWh a year, all these numbers they provide is nonsense. Scaling up production of battery and building fully supply chain is very difficult. It offends me that you continue to trivialize who hard it is to ramp up battery production. Take a look at the EV industry. We have 2 companies that have shown the ability to scale up production. We have all the major battery manufacturers relying on the Chinese supply chain. We have a 3 or 4 battery factories announced here in America and people are acting like all the problems are solved. BYD announces one of these factories every month or so! It's one thing to say you can produce 40 GWh a year and quite a different thing to supply 400 GWh a year.
 
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henrik

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tphuang said:
Let's make a couple of things clear here. The current Tesla 4680 is not free of Chinese supply chain. Using a fully non-Chinese supply chain would significantly increase its cost.

Secondly (more importantly), Tesla 4680 is vaporware pushed out by the Tesla hype machine. Until Tesla is able to produce 40/50 GWh a year, all these numbers they provide is nonsense. Scaling up production of battery and building fully supply chain is very difficult. It offends me that you continue to trivialize who hard it is to ramp up battery production. Take a look at the EV industry. We have 2 companies that have shown the ability to scale up production. We have all the major battery manufacturers relying on the Chinese supply chain. We have a 3 or 4 battery factories announced here in America and people are acting like all the problems are solved. BYD announces one of these factories every month or so! It's one thing to say you can produce 40 GWh a year and quite a different thing to supply 400 GWh a year.
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Are there any reasons why 4680 is vaporware? Lack of factories, engineers and raw materials?
 
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tphuang

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henrik said:
Are there any reasons why 4680 is vaporware? Lack of factories, engineers and raw materials?
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It's just really hard to scale up production of batteries and EVs. I don't know exactly why. Tesla itself is also not a battery company, so it's probably discovering how to do this. 4680 was announced a couple of years ago and how many Teslas are using it now? Not many to the best of my knowledge.
 
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henrik

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tphuang said:
It's just really hard to scale up production of batteries and EVs. I don't know exactly why. Tesla itself is also not a battery company, so it's probably discovering how to do this. 4680 was announced a couple of years ago and how many Teslas are using it now? Not many to the best of my knowledge.
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Do they still have Panasonic as a battery making partner?
 
tphuang

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From Chinese social media, BYD smart driving project with Baidu is close to completing. A new Seal model in 2024 will be using it (with possible 2023 deliveries). BYD is the top client for Baidu and probably for any perspective software provider. There is a delivery center in Shenzhen from Baidu to BYD. Not really sure what that means since Seal should be able to get this software from OTA updates.

Remember, BYD creates auto OS with interface that AV developers can interface with. This allows BYD to not be dependent on anyone.

The race for autonomous driving is really heating up. For the high end smart driving, 2024/2025 is when the fight really starts. It seems to me that Baidu has a lead here with all the data from their robotaxi program.

This also seems to be an area Tesla has squandered.
henrik said:
Do they still have Panasonic as a battery making partner?
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Yeah, I think Tesla has a bunch of battery suppliers. That's the smart way to go.
 
tphuang

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Getting out of Chinese supply chain is very hard. GEM here is working with SK and its cathode suppliers to build nickel plant in Indonesia to remain in SK supply chain and fulfill IRA requirements.

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The facility will also help GEM to fulfill the requirements of the US’s Inflation Reduction Act that came into effect on Aug. 16 and defend its status in the global new energy vehicle battery market, the company said.

The Inflation Reduction Act rules that US consumers may be able to claim a USD7,500 clean vehicle tax credit if the carmaker used raw materials and other key components of the power battery from countries that have free trade deals with the United States. China is not one of them.

By 2025, 70 percent of GEM’s nickel resources will be self-produced and will become completely self-sufficient after 2027. The firm will achieve its long-term sales target of 500,000 tons of precursor materials by 2026.
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China has a lot of battery suppliers. Here, Eve is getting involved with BMW. The German automotive industry strive for multiple sources for their batteries, but all of them are in China.
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Looks like BYD is going to make a big announcement in Mexican market on Tuesday. Maybe time to announce Yuan+ EV and Song+ DM-i. BYD has very high hopes for Song+ in Latin America and Central Asia. Generally, I think DM-i is a pretty good step toward BEVs in countries that are still new to EV adoption and don't have the same charging infrastructure.

Yuan+ demand is off the charts in Thailand. Bangkok auto show is happening in Dec 1st to 12th. There should be a lot more orders for Yuan+. Let's see how many cars they can allocate for the Thailand market.
 
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