New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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With this, it does seem like NIO is ramping up production a little bit for November, probably headed for 12 to 15k range. BYD is still not as high as I was hoping for. I'm not sure how they get to 250k in November with this type of numbers.

Tesla continues to deny the rumor of price cut, but I don't see how they can go on with the production increase unless they start cutting prices. Especially since they are not putting out new models and are getting more competition against model 3.
 

tphuang

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So this is quite interesting. After the claim of solid state battery for BYD in the high end market. Now, there is claim of sodium ion battery for the lower priced models. Interesting because they have made so little noise about sodium ion batteries thus far. I'm certainly pro sodium ion battery since it's cheaper, safe, not scarce and works for all the energy storage systems.

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this news has already been denied by BYD. Will be interesting to see if this happens.

In general, I'm not a fan of BYD's strategy of only doing LFP. I think as you expand into other niches, you need to use other battery chemistries.
 

AndrewS

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So this is quite interesting. After the claim of solid state battery for BYD in the high end market. Now, there is claim of sodium ion battery for the lower priced models. Interesting because they have made so little noise about sodium ion batteries thus far. I'm certainly pro sodium ion battery since it's cheaper, safe, not scarce and works for all the energy storage systems.

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this news has already been denied by BYD. Will be interesting to see if this happens.

In general, I'm not a fan of BYD's strategy of only doing LFP. I think as you expand into other niches, you need to use other battery chemistries.


There's at least another 3 years before a low-cost Sodium battery supply chain is established, so there's enough time for BYD to move in.
And solid-state batteries are still really, really expensive
 

tphuang

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Stella Li announcing BYD plans in Chile. PV plans to be announced in December.
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Again, stealthy moves by BYD into Latin American market. This is a market basically completely ignored by Western automakers.

Nanning's 10 GWh battery factory should be fully online by end of the year (6 production lines).

follow up announcement on their plans in Brazil.
 

supercat

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So how do you make your battery swap business viable? By making a partnership with some of the largest oil companies in the world
CNOOC is the latest oil giant to enter into a partnership with NIO. Previously, the EV maker has entered into similar partnerships with Sinopec, CNPC, and Shell.
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The chip ban has limited effects on China's auto industry so far.
 

sunnymaxi

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Self-driving startup Pony. Ai has established a new department to develop assisted driving systems for passenger vehicles, as it tries to expand its revenue streams beyond autonomous taxis and trucks.

Pony.ai Inc. has established a new department to develop assisted driving systems for makers of passenger vehicles, as the Toyota-backed self-driving startup tries to expand its revenue streams beyond autonomous taxis and trucks.

The new unit has secured a contract to install its assisted driving technology in a model scheduled for mass production in 2023, Pony.ai’s Chief Operating Officer Wang Haojun said in a recent interview with Caixin. Wang declined to name the carmaker.

The move will bring Pony.ai new business opportunities in the Chinese market where the company will offer different levels of assisted driving systems compatible with many premium electric vehicles (EVs), which typically come with smart driving hardware such as laser-based sensors and artificial intelligence chips, according to Wang.

It comes as the development of fully-automated driving technology — Pony.ai’s core focus — continues to face safety and cost barriers.

In his interview with Caixin, Wang said that the paid robotaxi and autonomous trucking services have started generating revenue. But whether the services will be able to turn a profit is not clear. Pony.ai has never released its financial figures publicly.

The push marks the latest effort by Pony.ai to explore different commercial uses for its technologies, tapping into the race between passenger-car makers to launch models equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems providing functions like automated valet parking.

The firm is best known for developing Level 4 autonomous driving technology, the second-highest level of self-driving capability based on U.S. Society of Automotive Engineers standards, enabling a car to drive itself under most circumstances without human interventions.

Since its founding in 2016, the company has been exploring commercialization of its Level 4 technology through trialing its free robotaxi services in a limited number of cities in China and the U.S. It reached a milestone in July this year, when it obtained permission to trial
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for autonomous rides in a designated area of suburban Beijing.

Pony.ai expanded its business scope in 2020, when it set up a unit tasked with building self-driving rigs, which tend to operate in less complex driving environments such as on highways, making them low-hanging fruit in pursuit of turning the firm’s self-driving technology into a profitable business.

In May 2021, Pony.ai
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to conduct commercial autonomous freight operations in a district of Guangzhou, South China’s Guangdong province. In July this year, the company announced it would establish a joint venture with China’s top construction-machinery maker Sany Heavy Industry Co. Ltd. to produce driverless trucks, with mass production expected to start in 2024. The deal with Sany came just months after Pony.ai signed an agreement with Chinese logistics company Sinotrans Ltd. to set up a joint venture for building a smart trucking platform.

Since its establishment in 2016, Pony.ai has completed several rounds of fundraising, with the most recent round in March this year, which boosted its valuation to $8.5 billion. The company said at the time that the capital would be used to fund the testing of driverless taxis and trucks, hire talent, increase R&D capabilities, and commercialize its technologies.
 

AndrewS

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Read the other link I sent you. It would still appear to be part of the $3750 that is related to the material of the battery.

There $3750 for the material behind the battery and another $3750 for the production of battery itself.

Production is in the USA, but the minerals, refineries, anode, cathode and all of that are just not in America. There is very little of that/if any in America.

and that cost will be higher when they have to invest in refineries, anode, cathode and the rest produced in America. Only China has the volume production in these supply chains. The Koreans and Japanese all rely on Chinese supply chain for battery production. That's why they are protesting it.

Again, there is a fixed $ on how much money is available. If you think $10k is available per car, then the number of cars that gets covered will be really small. Remember, $369 billion for all clean energy stuff. There is also a section for used car purchases. If $50 billion of subsidies is available for this, you can do your own calculation of how many cars can get covered before the money runs out.

I'm also not going to waste my time debating you on this anymore.

"Goldman Sachs expects the “average eligible EV in the US” will receive more than $10,000 in benefits from the IRA.

The bank’s analysts believe demand for finished batteries could be met without China within the next three to five years, largely thanks to big investments in the US by South Korean conglomerates LG and SK, who have been attracted by massive subsidies from US taxpayers."
---

Article below. However, I don't expect Europe to actually separate itself from the Chinese battery supply chain, as Goldman theorises

West could end reliance on Chinese batteries by 2030, says Goldman Sachs
ft.com/content/458ebaf3-c1ee-499c-b7f3-2e5d7f1bb6df
archive.ph/SRuCt
 
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tphuang

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"Goldman Sachs expects the “average eligible EV in the US” will receive more than $10,000 in benefits from the IRA.

The bank’s analysts believe demand for finished batteries could be met without China within the next three to five years, largely thanks to big investments in the US by South Korean conglomerates LG and SK, who have been attracted by massive subsidies from US taxpayers."
---

Article below. However, I don't expect Europe to actually separate itself from the Chinese battery supply chain, as Goldman theorises

West could end reliance on Chinese batteries by 2030, says Goldman Sachs
ft.com/content/458ebaf3-c1ee-499c-b7f3-2e5d7f1bb6df
archive.ph/SRuCt
Why are you still replying to my message from 2 weeks ago. I thought we were over it already. What is wrong with you?
 

AndrewS

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Why are you still replying to my message from 2 weeks ago. I thought we were over it already. What is wrong with you?

You said you were done with the discussion and we agreed to disagree
But here's more reporting from elsewhere with the same numbers
I get you don't like it, but it doesn't change that this is happening
And as I mentioned before, it's generally a good thing for the world that the US is finally pushing electric vehicles

Plus the $10K in subsidies for the average electric car in the USA is actually unlimited, not limited to $50 Billion as you suggested
It's in the form of tax breaks which can be traded, so the US government is foregoing future revenue (and there is no limit to this)
 

henrik

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"Goldman Sachs expects the “average eligible EV in the US” will receive more than $10,000 in benefits from the IRA.

The bank’s analysts believe demand for finished batteries could be met without China within the next three to five years, largely thanks to big investments in the US by South Korean conglomerates LG and SK, who have been attracted by massive subsidies from US taxpayers."
---

Article below. However, I don't expect Europe to actually separate itself from the Chinese battery supply chain, as Goldman theorises

West could end reliance on Chinese batteries by 2030, says Goldman Sachs
ft.com/content/458ebaf3-c1ee-499c-b7f3-2e5d7f1bb6df
archive.ph/SRuCt

It looks like Chinese battery supply chain is going to encircle the US in a big way.
 
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