Then build a robust electric delivery system with multiple inputs including coals if necessary.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
The thing to remember is that you can schedule EVs to charge at certain times, say overnight when power demand is low, or during the daytime when there is a surplus of solar electricity.
If I do a back of the envelope calculation, an entirely electric vehicle fleet in China adds 2000 TWh of electricity demand.
Overall electricity demand is currently 8000 TWh.
You just have to plan on the additional electricity demand like you have to do today.
China has built out all the hydro sources now, so additional capacity has to come elsewhere eg. solar, wind, coal, nuclear etc
Also consider how China's Strategic Petroleum reserve has 685 million barrels.
At a notional cost of $100 per barrel, that's $68 Billion, which will not be required if vehicles are electric.
At current coal prices, you could buy 340 million tonnes of coal and use that as an emergency generation reserve.
With the current generation mix, my guestimate is that this would be enough for 1 full month of all electricity production in China, or 3+ months of renewables cover.
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Coal accounts for approx half of electricity generation in China (4000 TWh), and it takes many hours for a coal plant to spin up from cold. But China is planning on running coal plants at 30% load, so that they can rampup quickly for daytime demand, unexpected demand/shortfalls or longer periods with low renewable electricity generation.
Yes, running coal plants at 30% of load isn't as efficient, but it doesn't look too bad. See below
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"The net efficiency of the conventional hard-coal-fired power plant decreases from 45.6% at full load to 41.5% at 40% load"
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If you run existing (and new coal plants) in China at 30% normally, and use them as a reserve in addition to renewables, I reckon China could halve the amount of coal burned for electricity generation today. Bear in mind there is a huge amount of solar polysilicon plants coming online in China over the next 2 years, so we'll see polysilicon prices crash downwards.
Solar is the magic cure to all of China's power problems. Not only is it blockade/sanction proof since it doesn't have to rely on foreign sources, it's even war proof since there's no centralised targets for missiles to hit
The only two problems China needs to solve is making sure the electrical grid has enough redundancies to make sure attacks on grid infrastructure doesn't cause rolling damage, and to find enough worthless space so that panels don't destroy nature
The only two problems China needs to solve is making sure the electrical grid has enough redundancies to make sure attacks on grid infrastructure doesn't cause rolling damage, and to find enough worthless space so that panels don't destroy nature
How about hydrogen fuel systems, that do not require lithium?
Hydrogen is very similar to petrol. There's no advantage to using electricity in automotive applications
I think it will only happen if there's a breakthrough in hydrogen production tech or if electricity prices become ridiculously low. Hydrogen production currently uses way too much energy to compete with battery.
But by then there will probably be breakthrough in battery tech that doesn't use lithium, like CATL sodium batteries. So I think hydrogen is dead
If the Republicans control all 3 in 2024, this can easily happen.
I'm not actually sure where you got these numbers, because this clearly says that $7500 is the maximum you can get with cars
Any decent LR model would have around 80 to 100 KWh of battery (should actually be more than this). For Non-LFP batteries, there is about 20 to 30% of battery capacity you really don't use for most of the time.
For 100 KWh, a LFP pack from BYD might only cost 10k. Do I think a process that purely uses American supply chain can get down to $175/Kwh? Not really. And more importantly, the bigger issue isn't even the cost but rather availability. There just isn't enough of a market to justify building an entire supply chain that can support high production.
Quite interesting is that impact of Tesla price cut.
From Zeekr
and NIO
and Xpeng
So with Tesla price cut, the higher end brands like NIO/Zeekr/XPeng are getting under cut.
Here is the impact of BYD increasing production and Tesla increasing production + cutting prices
We are getting past the initial market place gold rush with these new startups and into market consolidation of the next year as BYD really ramps up production. Even with BYD, there is a question of how quickly former German/Japanese car buyers are willing to buy domestic. There were apparently about 250k domestic orders in October. That is good, but not really enough to take on a ramp up to 300k a month by Q1 2023. I think they need to put out new models. Anyways, consolidation will happen.
Also, here is the problem facing ICE vehicles. Subsidies are pretty large for NEVs
Interesting, looks like pony.ai is having trouble competing in China or is transitioning to fully American.
Geely is entering Europe under Geometry C brand. imo, they are a bit of a mess. Too many brands. I don't understand they can't just use their Volvo brand dealerships to sell their other models. Just a strange company.
From Zeekr
and NIO
and Xpeng
So with Tesla price cut, the higher end brands like NIO/Zeekr/XPeng are getting under cut.
Here is the impact of BYD increasing production and Tesla increasing production + cutting prices
We are getting past the initial market place gold rush with these new startups and into market consolidation of the next year as BYD really ramps up production. Even with BYD, there is a question of how quickly former German/Japanese car buyers are willing to buy domestic. There were apparently about 250k domestic orders in October. That is good, but not really enough to take on a ramp up to 300k a month by Q1 2023. I think they need to put out new models. Anyways, consolidation will happen.
Also, here is the problem facing ICE vehicles. Subsidies are pretty large for NEVs
Interesting, looks like pony.ai is having trouble competing in China or is transitioning to fully American.
Geely is entering Europe under Geometry C brand. imo, they are a bit of a mess. Too many brands. I don't understand they can't just use their Volvo brand dealerships to sell their other models. Just a strange company.
a little more on Geely.
First, I'm not sure why Geely is looking to buy Renault's ICE business. Secondly, this seems more trouble than it's worth
but Renault/Nissan situation makes an merger harder.
on the bright side, Geely is seeing a lot of growth with 153k for October. On top of that, it's export is doing well too with 160k so far this year.
and it's trucking unit is looking to get into Europe
It seems to me Geely is trying to stay relevant and is biting off more than it can chew.
First, I'm not sure why Geely is looking to buy Renault's ICE business. Secondly, this seems more trouble than it's worth
but Renault/Nissan situation makes an merger harder.
on the bright side, Geely is seeing a lot of growth with 153k for October. On top of that, it's export is doing well too with 160k so far this year.
and it's trucking unit is looking to get into Europe
It seems to me Geely is trying to stay relevant and is biting off more than it can chew.
More from BYD
This article is interesting. Looks like BYD is taken over where Ford was before in Camaçari and they got quite a bit of subsidies from Bahian gov't. As we discussed before, they are building 3 plants:
lithium and phosphate processing plant
BEV and PHEV car plant
BEV bus and truck plant
Now, the interesting part here is that they are exporting lithium/phosphate to China in order to assemble batteries there. Looks like BYD is really closely guarding its battery technology.
Aside form this, looks like they just registered a new sales company today. Presumably for their new high end brand.
There are now over 100k unfilled Seal order.
Some points about why Thai people like BYD
1) can actually deliver the car
2) very good value for money
3) BYD is well known brand
4) blade battery is the world's safest battery technology
5) people like the design
I saw the comparison of Atto 3 vs ORA woodcut and MG. The specs for Atto 3 is just better in terms of range, charging speed, acceleration and size/wheelbase. People are waiting for their Atto 3 deliveries.
This article is interesting. Looks like BYD is taken over where Ford was before in Camaçari and they got quite a bit of subsidies from Bahian gov't. As we discussed before, they are building 3 plants:
lithium and phosphate processing plant
BEV and PHEV car plant
BEV bus and truck plant
Now, the interesting part here is that they are exporting lithium/phosphate to China in order to assemble batteries there. Looks like BYD is really closely guarding its battery technology.
Aside form this, looks like they just registered a new sales company today. Presumably for their new high end brand.
There are now over 100k unfilled Seal order.
Some points about why Thai people like BYD
1) can actually deliver the car
2) very good value for money
3) BYD is well known brand
4) blade battery is the world's safest battery technology
5) people like the design
I saw the comparison of Atto 3 vs ORA woodcut and MG. The specs for Atto 3 is just better in terms of range, charging speed, acceleration and size/wheelbase. People are waiting for their Atto 3 deliveries.