New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

supercat

supercat

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tphuang said:
and it's trucking unit is looking to get into Europe
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It seems to me Geely is trying to stay relevant and is biting off more than it can chew.
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The SuperVan concept from Farizon, Geely's commercial NEV division, looks really sleek. I hope they will make it into production.
n5ysmQC.jpg


Huawei is really diversifying into NEV now.

Huawei aims to build AITO into global premium EV brand within 3 years​

Huawei is expected to have more than 1,000 AITO experience stores and user centers by the end of this year, an executive said.
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I think Chinese NEV's market share in Europe will be more than 1 in 6 by 2025.

One in six EVs sold in Europe will be made by Chinese makers by 2025, Fitch Solutions says​

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Some Chinese analysts think that China's NEV market share will stable at 50%, or approximately 13 million a year, for a while.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589462324880216064
 
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AndrewS

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tphuang said:
Any decent LR model would have around 80 to 100 KWh of battery (should actually be more than this). For Non-LFP batteries, there is about 20 to 30% of battery capacity you really don't use for most of the time.

For 100 KWh, a LFP pack from BYD might only cost 10k. Do I think a process that purely uses American supply chain can get down to $175/Kwh? Not really. And more importantly, the bigger issue isn't even the cost but rather availability. There just isn't enough of a market to justify building an entire supply chain that can support high production.
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There's separate subsidies just for battery production eg $45 per kWh of battery

The estimates for Ternary battery costs for Tesla are already in the region of $100-150 / Kwh.

And if you think about it, 15 million vehicles per year in the US is enough to build out a supply chain. That would be a bare minimum of 750 GWh of annual battery capacity required, even if it is more expensive than the Chinese equivalent.
 
vincent

vincent

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AndrewS said:
There's separate subsidies just for battery production eg $45 per kWh of battery

The estimates for Ternary battery costs for Tesla are already in the region of $100-150 / Kwh.

And if you think about it, 15 million vehicles per year in the US is enough to build out a supply chain. That would be a bare minimum of 750 GWh of annual battery capacity required, even if it is more expensive than the Chinese equivalent.
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  • United States Motor Vehicle Production was reported at 9,167,214.000 Unit in Dec 2021.
 
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AndrewS

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vincent said:
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  • United States Motor Vehicle Production was reported at 9,167,214.000 Unit in Dec 2021.
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Yes. So you can see the US imports a lot of cars to get to 15 million in sales.

But with the EV subsidies and the transition to EVs, it now means those imports will be replaced with locally made cars. Japan and Korea are particularly affected as they export a lot of cars to the US.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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AndrewS said:
There's separate subsidies just for battery production eg $45 per kWh of battery

The estimates for Ternary battery costs for Tesla are already in the region of $100-150 / Kwh.

And if you think about it, 15 million vehicles per year in the US is enough to build out a supply chain. That would be a bare minimum of 750 GWh of annual battery capacity required, even if it is more expensive than the Chinese equivalent.
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Do you have any link or something to show that there is a separate subsidy for battery production? I haven't seen it. As you can see on the link I provided, both $3750 rebate are related batteries (one for material and one production). I haven't seen anything to indicate you can do better than $7500.

there is no evidence that Tesla can get Ternary battery cost under $150/KWh that's free of Chinese supply chain when produced at high volume.

As for your other point, the American EV market is far from 15 million vehicles. There are a lot of large Pickup trucks and minivans in America that people just don't trust on EVs anytime soon.

Let's put it this way, $7500 subsidies for 10 million vehicles a year would be $75 billion a year. The total portion for clean energy on IRA is $369 billion. That include used EVs also. And that's if the Republicans don't repeal it. And they all voted against it. I don't know how you got to 15 million EVs a year. That is crazy talk.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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This is what's posted in Chinese social media about future BYD brands and the markets they occupy.

Dynasty + Marine series in the mass market (80 to 350k RMB). Nothing too new here except that SeaGull should be occupying the low end at 80k RMB and that has not really appeared yet. Also, the price point is a little higher than expected. The very upper end would be occupied by Tang and Sea Lion probably. So, this is the mass market segment that they are looking to take over in the next couple of years. They are seeking to achieve the best value in this segment.

Denza + Chaopai series in the 350 to 600k RMB segment (BMW, Benz, Audi class). This is the first time I've heard of ChaoPai, so I do not know what to make of it. The goal here is to provide high quality product/experience with good value.

Yang Wang (LookUp) series in the ultra luxury (800k+ RMB) providing unrivaled functionality/driving experience. This was supposed to be starry sky, but I guess that brand was already taken. This is covering a segment that only few could afford. I guess Model X/Y is also in this segment along with some other high end electric vehicles. The off roader is apparently the first car they will have in this segment.

On the whole, I think they are basically looking to cover the entire market. They are also going to do more direct sales in the future I think. Right now, they have been using dealership for the most part due to not having as strong brand presence for most of their existence. As they consolidate their presence in China and around the world with the recognition as the #1 EV maker of the world, they should be able to sell more directly (like Tesla is doing).

Also, I think they want to get to a point where everyone just goes directly to BYD brand for everything and that will squeeze out all the smaller players like Leapmotor, XPeng, Li Auto and such.

I guess the Tesla price cut wasn't that much of a success.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589781078709260289
 
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ansy1968

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Huawei is now testing Harmony OS 3 for AITO M7, IF successful a fully L4 autonomous driving is possible using Huawei 5g technology application.


Huawei begins beta testing HarmonyOS 3 for AITO M7​



Max McDee, 07 November 2022
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Huawei announced a Beta testing program for the latest HarmonyOS 3 software developed for
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. The latest update is meant to improve the overall performance of the car itself and offer some new and some improved functionalities.
Huawei begins beta testing HarmonyOS 3 for AITO M7

AITO is backed by Huawei and by using its HarmonyOS avoids issues with software development, something that Volkswagen Group is struggling with. Any owner of electric VW can confirm that the software feels like it’s decades old and is the constant source of annoyances and a painful sticky point for the company.
Huawei has just pushed the Beta update for AITO M7 owners who registered via the car’s app to take part in the program. The internal testing will continue till November 15, the beta testing is closed and will be rolled out to 800 users only.
Huawei begins beta testing HarmonyOS 3 for AITO M7

Those who did manage to register will receive 500 points in their AITO app on top of the access to all the new features if they share the news of the upgrade. One lucky user will receive 1,500 AITO points for the best and highest quality post - the results will be announced on November 21.
The OTA V1.0.103SP06 comes with a bunch of upgrades and enhanced basic functionalities. According to Huawei, the stability of software is improved and the car’s performance and efficiency will be improved as well.
Huawei begins beta testing HarmonyOS 3 for AITO M7

The updated OS comes with a Super Desktop function that offers to use the car’s infotainment screen as a second screen for a laptop or a phone. The OTA update adds new time wallpaper function, active noise reduction, new car wash mode, optimized energy recovery, optimized power performance in eco-mode, improved parking assist, improved vehicle charging compatibility, new air purification reminder and a reminder for a mobile phone left behind together with better connectivity.
The sort of major upgrade this is clearly shows that leaving the software development to the professionals and licensing it rather than spending precious time and huge budgets is the way forward. It was Elon Musk who said years ago that the future car companies will be no different than software developers and the survival of business will depend on the quality of its software solutions.
HarmonyOS 3 changelog


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16 hours ago — Huawei announced a Beta testing program for the latest HarmonyOS 3 software developed for AITO M7. The latest update is meant to improve the ...
 
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