New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
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China to get ahead in global ‘white gold’ rush
Chinese firm will invest $2.2 billion into lithium exploration projects in ArgentinaThe Argentine foreign ministry has confirmed that Chinese mining company Tibet Summit Resources will invest $2.2 billion in two lithium exploration projects in the South American country.
The Shanghai-based company is expected to create around 10,000 jobs in Argentina, according to the released on Friday.
The ministry noted that the plans were shared by Jianrong Huang, the president of Tibet Summit Resources, with Argentine ambassador Sabino Vaca Narvaja at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai.
Under the plan, the Chinese firm will invest around $700 million into the Salar de Diablillos project in Salta province, which is expected to produce 50,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate starting next year.
Meanwhile, another $1.5 billion will be used for construction of a plant at the Arizaro salt flat, also located in Salta, which is expected to produce between 50,000 and 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2024.
Argentina, along with Bolivia and Chile, is part of the Lithium Triangle, a region of the Andes that accounts for around 54% of the world’s white metal reserves. Globally, the South American nation is ranked the fourth biggest lithium producer, after Australia, Chile and China, according to a report from the Argentine Chamber of Mining Entrepreneurs (CAEM).
BYD has delivered the first Atto 3s to Cambodian customers. They work out to be over $40k USD each, yikes!
BYD also has a skyrail (yunba) project in Hefei. Another city with large BYD factory presence that is also spending money on BYD skyrail (after Shenzhen, Xi'an and Changsha)
BYD's next battery plant in Xiangyang is getting ready for action. It is 39 days away from the first line starting production On Dec 15th. All 16 production lines will be operational by middle of next year. Will be for both their own production and external sales.
BYD also has a skyrail (yunba) project in Hefei. Another city with large BYD factory presence that is also spending money on BYD skyrail (after Shenzhen, Xi'an and Changsha)
BYD's next battery plant in Xiangyang is getting ready for action. It is 39 days away from the first line starting production On Dec 15th. All 16 production lines will be operational by middle of next year. Will be for both their own production and external sales.
You have to dream. 5 million sales is the internal target next year for BYD. Don't believe the analysts that keep underestimating BYD's ability to ramp up. BYD is going to be at 280k/month by the end of this year. 280 x 12 = Which means 4 million next year is very easy to get to with minimal increases. 4.5 million would be achievable and 5 million would be quite the dream.
broadsword
Brigadier
I hope BYD can reach 8 million in 2024.
280k per month by end of this year means an annual running rate of around 3m.
Reaching 4m sales for 2023 would mean a growth of 33%. Reaching 5m sales would need a growth of 66%.
I definitely think that a 66% growth is not impossible but it would for sure stretch their operating capacity to the limits. We should also not forget that as BYD grows so big, the law of big numbers will start applying to it. The days of 3-digits or high 2-digit growth will come to an end some day in the future.
I personally think their 2023 sales numbers will be between 4m and 5m, something like (with an upside potential) 4.5m would my best guess
280k by December means they can average 300k per month in Q1 which works out to be 3.6 million a year with no additional increases.
Some steady increase get you to 4 million.
If we assume some growth across the year, then 900k in Q1, 1m in q2, 1.2m in q3 and 1.4m in q4. That's 4.5 million already. The growth curve isn't that crazy.
Let's say there is a 5 million BYD internal sales target in 2023 and production of 280K/month in Dec 2022.
Assuming a steady monthly ramp, that means Dec 2023 production would have to be double the figure from 12 months ago.
560K/month is a run-rate of 6.7 Million vehicles per year.
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So let's go with starting point of 280k in December and capacity coming along steadily in 2023.
Q1 is normally a slow quarter, so let's assume around 900k at most and reaching around 330k by March.
For q2, expect continuous ramp of 20k more every month will mean 350, 370, 390 for a total of 1.1 million
For rest of the year, if we assume 30k more per month on average, then we get to 570k by December and another 2.9 million sales, so around 4.9 million sales in total.
From there, I think we get to a point where demand rather than production might be the constraint to further sales.
Even if we assume 10% are exports, doing 500k a month -> 6 million a year is close to a quarter of the Chines domestic market. I don't think there is that much growth for them left in the Chinese market once they hit 30% (even Toyota is only at 40% of Japan market). 8 million is possible in 2024. That would probably be 7 million domestic and 1 million export. If the Chinese market get to 30 million a year, then BYD might take up 9 to 10 million of that and then do 2 to 3 million more in export market. They would already be the world's largest automaker at that sales level.
I think the key is also in the product they offer. If Seagull becomes a success, then they can probably sell a million of that a year around the world.
I think BYD will still see healthy demand even if it is producing 6 million vehicles per year (25% of the Chinese market)
Today Toyota has 40% of the Japanese market even though there are many *competitive* rivals.
But BYD faces a lower level of *effective* NEV competition in China and globally, so I think they could get to 35-40% of the Chinese market alone as long as they continue launching enough new models/brands.
So I think 2023 would be another year of adding 280-290K of monthly capacity. That would end up as a run rate of 10 million per year.
At 10 million per year in 2024, BYD would almost certainly have the distinction of being the world's largest automaker, as BYD would have taken significant sales from Toyota/VW.
That status automatically gives BYD the credibility to further expand globally.