New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

NiuBiDaRen said:

China leapfrogs Germany as world's 2nd largest car exporter

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Currently, 90% of China's car exports are vehicles with ICE and they are going to markets in developing countries. Once China starts to export NEV to the European market in the next few years in earnest, they will easily become the world's largest car exporter and the world's largest auto manufacturing country by far.

supercat said:

world's largest auto manufacturing country by far.

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Chinese auto production is already about 3x of the US.

As it did with the DRC, the US and American companies are standing aside and China is capturing the Indonesian metals industry.

China’s investments have helped Indonesia become the world’s largest producer of nickel and nickel-related products, such as stainless steel, Tritto said. She expects electric vehicle batteries to follow

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Over 10K new BEVs registered across W-Europe in September came from a Chinese OEM accounting for every sixteenth new BEV. Perhaps even more significantly, according to EuroEVReport data, over every fourth new BEV registered in W-Europe during September was 'made in China'

Nickel and Cobalt are not the future of EV batteries. While it is good for them to dominate these areas and invest in Indonesia, lithium itself is far more important. Manganese is also becoming increasingly important.

Looks like China has now placed an order of 5 billion RMB on PCTC ships. 6 firm and 2 optional with a Shandong shipyard.

Of course, this will only be part of their fleet. They will also continue to ship materials/parts to other countries for assembly. They will probably start using rail freight to Europe soon. However, this is a good step to controlling their delivery.

Looks like they've started shipping Atto 3 to Norway. Just 44 in October so far due to production constraints.

BYD FinDream's Guiyang high pressure electronics factory has started production. Looks like this produces various motor technology related to EV. This will produce parts for 80k cars per month. Will hire 3000 workers and produce 1.5 billion RMB of value.


More on Q3 results. They've now hit 10k RMB profit per car along with 5.74% margin.

They spent 10.87 billion RMB on R&D in first 3 quarters after spending 7.99 billion RMB in all of 2021, so the product development should continue to improve. I think most of their spending is still just Capex and expansion.

A nice analysis here on Q3 achievement by BYD.

Interesting enough, the gross margins for the auto division went from the 15 to 18% range for the past few quarters all the way to 22.75%. That is not far off Tesla's leading gross margins. Firm wide gross margin is 18.96% now, which is pretty good too. The earnings for the electronics division is also at an all time high.

The per car earnings has increased from 6994 in Q2 all the way to 9867 RMB.

BYD employs a lot of people. By next year, it will have a higher head count than any other manufacturers in the world.

It's revenue will be the highest among Chinese manufacturers.

It's earnings next year will be higher than CATL

It will have almost as many R&D staff next year as Huawei. Will become one of the only 2 companies in China (possibly the world) that have over 100k R&D staff.

This is likely just the start of BYD's earnings growth. It's likely to go through 2 more years of massive capex and R&D investment (in proportion to its revenue). By 2025, it will likely have reached finished this accelerated growth period.

tphuang said:

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A nice analysis here on Q3 achievement by BYD.

Interesting enough, the gross margins for the auto division went from the 15 to 18% range for the past few quarters all the way to 22.75%. That is not far off Tesla's leading gross margins. Firm wide gross margin is 18.96% now, which is pretty good too. The earnings for the electronics division is also at an all time high.

The per car earnings has increased from 6994 in Q2 all the way to 9867 RMB.

BYD employs a lot of people. By next year, it will have a higher head count than any other manufacturers in the world.

It's revenue will be the highest among Chinese manufacturers.

It's earnings next year will be higher than CATL

It will have almost as many R&D staff next year as Huawei. Will become one of the only 2 companies in China (possibly the world) that have over 100k R&D staff.

This is likely just the start of BYD's earnings growth. It's likely to go through 2 more years of massive capex and R&D investment (in proportion to its revenue). By 2025, it will likely have reached finished this accelerated growth period.

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I wonder when we'll start seeing a slowdown. Fast growth until they reach 4 million a year (their 2023 goal) is no problem I think. After that it becomes a bit more uncertain.

Because by then other carmakers are going to start rolling out pretty decent PHEVs and battery technology. I'd be pretty happy if they manage to reach the 6+ million figure of the top 5 automakers by 2025

Rank Amateur said:
My understanding is that tearing down competitors' vehicles is standard procedure in the auto industry, and there's nothing underhanded about it at all.

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supersnoop said:

Yes, Mercedes was caught taking apart a rented Tesla

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OK, I have to admit that is underhanded. Almost seems like a prank by some Mercedes engineers. I find it hard to believe Mercedes/Daimler balked at the cost of buying a Tesla to tear it down.

tphuang said:

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A nice analysis here on Q3 achievement by BYD.

Interesting enough, the gross margins for the auto division went from the 15 to 18% range for the past few quarters all the way to 22.75%. That is not far off Tesla's leading gross margins. Firm wide gross margin is 18.96% now, which is pretty good too. The earnings for the electronics division is also at an all time high.

The per car earnings has increased from 6994 in Q2 all the way to 9867 RMB.

BYD employs a lot of people. By next year, it will have a higher head count than any other manufacturers in the world.

It's revenue will be the highest among Chinese manufacturers.

It's earnings next year will be higher than CATL

It will have almost as many R&D staff next year as Huawei. Will become one of the only 2 companies in China (possibly the world) that have over 100k R&D staff.

This is likely just the start of BYD's earnings growth. It's likely to go through 2 more years of massive capex and R&D investment (in proportion to its revenue). By 2025, it will likely have reached finished this accelerated growth period.

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BYD better to have contingency plans in place because it will be on an American sanction list soon.

vincent said:

BYD better to have contingency plans in place because it will be on an American sanction list soon.

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It’s contingency plan is it’s vertically integrated, self reliant business model. The one company it would be useless to sanction is probably BYD.

Still likely though, as you said.

vincent said:

BYD better to have contingency plans in place because it will be on an American sanction list soon.

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The counterpoint is that cars don't need the latest chip technology, and both USA and Europe sells huge amount of cars in China so they may hesitate with Huawei treatment for BYD.