New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
This should really belong to the conventional submarine thread. I'm posting here to show that China's lead in EV industry and its supply chain can translate to advance and lead in military.
I wouldn't underestimate the risks of US banning auto chips and related tools and equipment. It doesn't matter what mechanism they would employ. They will find the way. The US is now in a state of constantly looking for ways to "stunt" China's advances and growing power in important technologies and industries, with or without potential military applications. The military-civilian infusion is already a ready excuse for any bans.
In fact, this risk has now been discussed in the media.
I wouldn't underestimate the risks of US banning auto chips and related tools and equipment. It doesn't matter what mechanism they would employ. They will find the way. The US is now in a state of constantly looking for ways to "stunt" China's advances and growing power in important technologies and industries, with or without potential military applications. The military-civilian infusion is already a ready excuse for any bans.
In fact, this risk has now been discussed in the media.
GM Shanghai literally saved GM around time the US was bailing it out in the middle of 2008 financial crisis. GM Shanghai, once upon a time, was more profitable and producing more cars than VW Shanghai. But GM never gives its Shanghai unit enough autonomy to run the local business. Mary Barra says all the right things about EV in public media. Yet GM does not have any competitive EV portfolios to compete against new players like Tesla and BYD or even old players like VW. Like other technological transitions before EV, old established giants like GM, Ford, Stellantis (motley of Chrysler and Fiat etc.) are withering in a slow motion before our eyes. It would take extraordinary figures like Lou Gerstner to transform those hopeless old business models.
In that context, Look at how Elon Musk let his China team run the local business. If VW or GM ever want to get back to their old glories in the China car market, they have to fix their own people management first.
When BYD is put on the SDN list, BYD will lose access to the USD network. BYD will have trouble getting letter of credits (for selling cars across borders), lose access to all its USD bank accounts, can’t send money abroad to pay suppliers or its oversea employees, no more access to its assets in the US….
LG batteries in a submarine. This is going to end well...
That's for SK. Meanwhile, Chinese EV manufacturers have invested in iron and phosphate batteries. They're in mass production and usage in Chinese market now. Their safety is proven.
"The research team said that using low-cost, readily available iron and phosphate can replace the usual but dangerous nickel and cobalt combination in lithium-ion batteries, improving safety without compromising performance.
According to industry data cited by the South China Morning Post, the Chinese market’s number of electric vehicles using iron phosphate battery technology exceeds those using nickel-cobalt batteries."
Yeah, I know about Chinese LFP batteries. I'm just imagining the fate of a ROK submarine with Samsung Galaxy batteries.
I prefer to debate based on the points that are raised. US can do whatever they want, but China can do the same in support of BYD.
There is too much irrational fear on this forum. If BYD gets put on SDN, there will be a lot of Chinese companies on SDN and we are looking at a full international decoupling. And for that kind of scenario, we will be looking at China having its own financial system setup already for trading with other countries.
Sure and China will nationalize all the American automakers in China. If we get to a point where Chinese companies are banned from USD, Chinese gov't better have rationalized CBDC, Yuan clearing, local currency settlement or something like that will all of global south by then. The work for this has already been under way for awhile. I have been posting content on this on the global south spread.
It wouldn't need USD bank accounts if China has direct local currency settlement or CBDC set up with the country in question.
Now, answer me this. China is 1/3 of the world's auto market. It has done this well so far without international market. Even when we get to 2025, domestic market Is likely to represent over 80% of its sales. Do you think America have more to gain if US automakers loose access to China or BYD loses access to Western market? Same with Germany? If China keeps foreign automakers out because they are not letting BYD sell cars to their country or establishing local bank accounts through central bank exchanges, BYD is likely to get 50% of local Chinese market + good chunk of global south. Tesla would lose its production ability and its second biggest market.
How does Western automakers continue to build EVs without Chinese supply chain?
I have already said American politicians aren’t rational and they believe they have power to control the world. Just saying BYD and other Chinese companies need to prepare for being put on the SDN list.
China aren’t gonna nationalize anything because that will scare off future investors. I haven’t noticed any major investments in the US by Chinese companies (BYD, CATL, etc) after the West seized Russian assets.
BYD is better positioned than anyone else to be put on SDN list. It is deeply connected to Californian political class. It's very popular with the environmental crowd. It has a good reputation due to its commitment to reduce global emission. On top of that, it is doing a great job of getting itself into every major company's supply chain.
Apple can't produce iPhones without BYD electronics. In a few years, every major automaker will be utilizing BYD battery or motor in their NEVs. And if Chinese NEV industry gets put on SDN, the rest of the world can either work with China on local currency settlement and have these details worked out (shouldn't be that hard) or they can stop producing NEVs. The entire NEV industry right now relies on Chinese supply chain.
China has not nationalized any Western companies, because no red lines have been crossed. But if America starts to seize Chinese companies, you can bet China would start to do the same.
At the end of the day, where will BYD be if it can only sell inside China and to countries that will have direct access to Yuan through currency swaps, yuan clearing centers, CBDC or something like Alipay+? I would say it can still do really well. BYD with 50% market share in China (after American automakers get booted) + export sales to rest of Asia, Africa and South America would still get 15 million sales a year as well as electric commercial vehicles, battery storage sales, chips, BYD electronics and Skyrail.
Also as I said before, I'm really against BYD entering US PV market. That would bring too much attention to itself. It's doing great in America in commercial vehicles, energy storage and building cars for other automakers like Nuro. Don't rock the boat. Just secretively get into GM/Ford/Tesla supply chain.