New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

escobar said:

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People that wrote this article completely missed the fact that Tesla/foreign JVs/China owned European brand are not that competitive in the Chinese markets anymore, that's why they have to export to Europe. Also misses the fact that Chinese battery makers are dominant because they are good, not because of market access issues.

I do think that as Chinese companies start exporting to Europe, they need to be building larger plants in Europe to take pressure off protectionism. And we can see that with CATL factory in Germany. I think both BYD/CATL will be building/expanding factories in Poland and Hungary also. Even NIO is thinking about it.

Anyhow, BYD sales figures are out. A little disappointing if you ask me. I think the Changsha shutdown really affected them this quarter. Strangely, their sales figures are lower than their production numbers. They produced 118k and sold 115k. Just 760 commercial vehicles. Looks like the focus on PV continues to take some demand over bus/trucks.

Break down as such.
Han -> 23.9k
tang -> 8449
Song -> 31.9k
Qin -> 20.7k
Yuan -> 13.3k
frigate 05 -> 4558
Dolphin -> 6430
E series -> 3900

Tang EV 2022 has now accumulated 15,882 orders.

I don't know how reliable this is, but Chinese social media says 6.2 GWh battery installed in May, which could make them the top battery provider in China for May.

This is a good chain on BYD progress
again, 6 GWh battery in May. was planning for 127k in production, but due to various issues, the number of lower at just 115k.
Based on this, June expected delivery to be 138k with 6.5 GWh battery production.
There was some comments on CTB (says CTC technology not ready yet). Talked about 2nd generation blade battery. I think it will be used in models coming out later this year.

here is another thing to consider
They are simply getting too many orders right now to fill them. DM-i series is really popular. Need to wait 3 months.

NDRC proposed the R&D and pile-up of energy storage technologies with high energy density, including sodium-ion batteries, solid-state -ion batteries, and lithium-sulfur batteries.

A little update on the Wuling JV in Indonesia
That type of low cost car should be a hot seller in local market imo.

electric viking touching on the BYD plans for lithium mining acquisition. A lot of automakers are doing talks about their plan to get to xyz size by certain point. Not many of them have the raw mineral or battery production lined up for it.

tphuang said:

This is a really strange argument. Toyota needs BYD to be competitive. If Toyota leaves China, they loose huge amount of profit because the Chinese market is a lot larger than Japan and all the Chinese automakers can just take the market share they leave behind. The biggest concern for Toyota right now is if Chinese automakers flood ASEAN/Latam markets with better cars and they lose all their customers. Japan without its auto industry is in big trouble.

The problem for Toyota is that BYD by itself is very successful. BYD is not motivated to help Toyota. Toyota relying itself on BYD is a huge gamble.

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Is byd going to export to Japan market? How well will they sell in Japan?

MrCrazyBoyRavi said:

NIO should seriously get rid of naomi AI robot. It’s so intrusive and feel like a spy cam looking at you. Sooner or later NIO should set up their own manufacturing plant. They can easily raise funds for making or buying an established car manufacturing company. Even Xpeng has overtaken NIO in numbers of car delivered.

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Nio has been posturing and acting like they are targeting the luxury market. But they are not able to ramp up like byd.
Provincial governments should subsidize new Nio plants. They have better looking cars than tesla.

henrik said:

Is byd going to export to Japan market? How well will they sell in Japan?

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They are actually already in Japan, for the bus market. Apparently, they have 70% market share in the electric bus market. Might be a really low base there.

But Japanese people are very loyal with their home brand, so passenger market will be tougher. They either need a factory in Japan or enter as a JV with Toyota imo.

A few more things on BYD's sales/delivery figures today. Referencing from here

Han -> 23.9k
tang -> 8449
Song -> 31.9k
Qin -> 20.7k
Yuan -> 13.3k
frigate 05 -> 4558
Dolphin -> 6430
E series -> 3900

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if you compare it to April figures
Han really went up
Dolphin really went down
Tang went down a little bit
Song went up
Qin was roughly flat
Yuan went down a little bit

From what I can see, Changsha shutdown really effected Dolphin, Yuan and Tang production numbers. One would hope that will be fixed up in June. Without changsha issues, they probably would've sold 10k more.

Also based on social media, Changsha's 2nd factory (xingsha)'s 2nd phase will start construction on June 2nd (today). Xingsha was the one that shut down IIRC. Tang DM-i and battery packing all affected May production. They say that Xingsha's current production rate is 500 a day. This will go up once 2nd phase come online.

From all I heard, Song DM-i series is really popular right now

The battery expansion is more impressive from BYD. They were at 4.5 GWh in April and now they are at 6.2 GWh in May (not sure that's all for PV or include energy storage also). CATL was only at 5.08 GWh in May. So, this maybe the first quarter in a while BYD surpasses CATL domestically.

BTW, this is absolutely hilarious. VW has to keep discounting ID4 because no one wants it

I really question what Geely is doing as they are getting into satellite/space business

Reports like this makes it sound like BYD is super excited about the additional Denza models coming out later this year.

Chinese social media has more on this. They've received over 20k orders on D9 thus far. 75% of which are for DM-i. They think this is partly due to DM-i being available for delivery in August and EV not being available until November. Steady state expected to be more of 70/30 split for DM-i/EV. It seems to me that the order thus far is really good for this early in the cycle after just 2 weeks of sales.

They see 20 to 30% customers as having switched from SUV to D9 with another 30% from other BYD products and about 30% switched over from BBA (BMW Brilliance Automotives). Keep in mind that BMW sold 846k cars in China in 2021 with only 48000 as NEV. A lot of gas guzzlers there.

The market they are going after are the people in 25 to 45 age group with either 2 or 3 kids or for 3 generation family.. So, this going after the high earning families in China. The 300 to 600k market in China is a rapidly expanding market. I saw 24% growth YoY for the past few years. In the past year, SUVs take up 90% of the market and Sedans take up 9%. There were only about 300 MPVs sold.

They are expecting D9 to reach over 10k production by end of this year with 40k total deliveries over the 5 months period. They expect MPV market to reach 1 million by 2024 and 1.5 million by 2025. They'd like to capture 40% of that market. So, it seems like BYD is seeing a missing product in the higher end segment (300 to 600k) of the market and trying to put a good product out there for this market. I guess MPV/minivan have traditionally not been as popular in China due to the smaller family sizes. They are very popular in North America. It seems to me this is a product that they can work with Daimler to export to rest of the world.

The even more interesting part is how they talked about the upcoming releases. They are looking to release a 5 seat SUV (EV version). Speculation that this was supposed to be Sea Lion, but now might be under Denza brand? More importantly, they have a 6 seat SUV in development using DM-i technology, Lidar and the high level autonomous driving. They are really going after BMW here. This is a segment dominated by the Germans in China. Denza will mostly be produced in Changsha. Benz contribution will mostly be with workmanship, styling and polish, just looking high end. That's their 10% contribution.

So, I think what BYD is doing here is a natural forward progression of the Chinese automarket as people have more disposable income. The growth in the 300 to 600k segment is off the chart in the past 5 years. I saw 2.3 million cars sold in this price range in 2021. Even during 2020, it had a huge jump in scale from 2019. If this keeps up, it could be 20% of the overall market in China by 2025. BYD clearly sees that it cannot simply stay in the 150 to 300k segment forever. It will have Sea Gull and Dolphin to cover the lower end of the market, but that's not a growing market. The 150 to 300k is not really growing that much either. Chinese families are increasingly buying more expensive cars. On top of that, you need this more luxurious lineup when you enter Europe. The 6 seat SUV is thought to be something that can possibly replace Tang (which is already in the lower end of the 300 to 600k market).

In the end, I think it's great they are challenging the gas guzzling German cars in the upper end of the market. NIO has a nice lineup, but it cannot scale up production fast enough. BYD can scale things up over night. They will also offer PHEV cars which maybe an easier sell for people who have traditionally bought ICE cars. I think both the 5 and 6 seat SUV will probably put model y in shame in terms of product quality/finishing. I love Tesla, but it looks very minimalist inside and the finishing really isn't as good as German cars. So I think this year you are seeing BYD and other medium budget Chinese EVs hurting VW/Toyota in the 150 to 300k segment. I think next 2 to 3 years, you will see BYD and hopefully NIO/XPeng taking a huge bite out of BMW/Mercedes/Audi.

escobar said:

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I won't take this article very seriously. It seems that the authors do not even know that unlike the legacy auto industry, China's EV industry has developed the full range of EV technologies in house and they do not rely on foreign EV technologies. Not only EV, China is also striving for the technologies of fuel-cell electric vehicle, and is probably already at the forefront of such technologies, for which these authors are probably completely oblivious.

China has discreetly taken 10 per cent of the world’s market for hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. Here’s a look at the company leading the charge​

• As the simplest possible molecule and the most abundant element in the universe, hydrogen is the ultimate, non-polluting fuel and energy-storage medium of the future
• Compared to solar and wind, hydrogen power does not fluctuate or depend on gusts or sunshine, plus they go further than EV batteries before refuelling

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Ford CEO Jim Farley having a moment of truth here with Wall Street folks. He acknowledges the competitiveness of the Chinese EVs. Honestly, I think his comment about $25000 EV clouds over the fact that China also has plenty of competitors in the $50 to $100k segment like NIO and XPeng that will threaten Ford/GM demands whenever they get their production up to par. Of course, I think the biggest avalanche facing legacy automakers is when Seal, Dolphin and Denza branded SUVs really hit the market. Also, Chinese automakers are clearly going to enter more than just Norway. Just a matter of time.

Good to see Leapmotor doing well. Their new C01 looks like a nice car and they have really ramped up production level and didn't get affected by the lockdowns. Just look at this, 45k pre-order for this new car in less than a month.

tphuang said:

Wuling mini are getting sent to Indonesia for assembly and export. The Chinese mini EVs should do well in many ASEAN markets like I said. I think Chery, Geely and BYD should be the next to bring their PHEV and BEV models here.

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This is getting more press release the last few days. Even electric viking covered it. His experience in Indonesia is exactly what my experience was. Traffic jams everywhere. Huge demand for mini cars. I remember going from Denpensar airport to my hotel. And we had 3 lanes of cars on a 2 car lane road. Something that should take 5 to 10 minutes in goo driving conditions took 30 minutes.

What I didn't realize was that SAIC Wuling already had a factory in Indonesia back in 2017. Looks like they will be assembling the Air EV here.
Indonesian gov't has been asking SAIC to do this for a while in their bid to reduce emissions.

btw, I love this part. It's time for all these Chinese automakers to manufacturer cheap EVs there. I can't wait for these anti-EV Japanese automakers to get crushed here. Japan has no alternative to offer here.

Luhut has accused Japanese automakers of dragging their heels when it comes to EV production in Indonesia.
He told a group of alumni of the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) last year that government’s EV ambition makes the Japanese unhappy and that the country is “under Japan’s technology colonialism”.
“Japan is angry with us. They asked why we didn’t consider developing hybrid cars first. And I was accused of being pro-China,” the retired army general said.
“Why should we go hybrid while we can directly develop electric vehicles?” he added.

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I wonder if all of ASEAN countries feel the same. This is a great opportunity for China to strengthen relationship with ASEAN countries. They want to be part of the technology of the future. The exported technology here is far from the latest. It helps build their local industry. Win/win for everyone.

It looks like Wuling is getting the red carpet treatment in Indonesia. I don't know how much more visible it gets for the local market than the G20 summit. The Chinese market is getting overly crowded. Smart of SAIC to add production in oversea markets.

There will be 300 Wuling EV units that are ready to support the mobility needs during the G20 Summit. Furthermore, all units used in the event will be produced at the Wuling factory located in Cikarang, West Java.

As additional information, the Wuling EV with the G20 livery has been shown for the first time today and is on display until June 5, 2022 at Laguna Atrium Central Park, Jakarta.

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Something to make Indonesians product of this car. It has longer range than the one currently sold in China
In reality, range of these mini-cars should continue to improve over time.

As one would expect, China gets more nickel access in Indonesia.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade obliged to provide support for the Chinese GB / T charging standard in Russian charging stations for electric vehicles.​

The Ministry of Industry and Trade has changed the requirements for completing fast charging stations for electric vehicles. Now the station must necessarily have only the Chinese GB / T charging standard, and the European CCS and Japanese CHAdeMO are optional. However, all Chinese cars in the Russian Federation have European connectors, market participants say. They believe that due to the closure of exports from the EU, the ministry hopes for the localization of Chinese cars and Asian imports.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade approved the characteristics of subsidized charging stations for electric vehicles (ECS), follows from the order of the ministry, published on pravo.gov.ru.

The station must have three connectors and be equipped with at least one Chinese standard GB / T connector, which was not in the February draft order.

The manufacturer can also choose to install either one CCS2 or one CHAdeMO connector. The CCS2 standard is used in European cars, and the Japanese CHAdeMO is used in the Nissan Leaf electric car.

In 2021, 545 filling stations operated in the Russian Federation. Subsidizing program in the amount of 8.1 billion rubles. will operate in 2022-2024. With this money, it is planned to install 2.9 thousand fast chargers. The maximum subsidy is 60% of the cost of the plant, but not more than 1.86 million rubles. Subsidy for technical connection of EZS to power grids - 30%, but up to 900 thousand rubles.

The economic parameters of future charging stations remain the same, they say in the Ministry of Energy. The ministry forwarded questions about the technical characteristics to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, but they did not explain to Kommersant the changes, saying that "the technical characteristics were approved for the first time, so the previous parameters are not available."

The minimal layout of the connectors looks strange, says IT Charge CEO Dmitry Matvievsky. “The manufacturer is required to install at least one GB / T connector, although there are very few such machines in the Russian Federation, but at the same time they leave the choice between CCS and CHAdeMO,” he says. 50 kW to save."

Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting adds that Chinese electric vehicles were delivered to Russia or were planned to be delivered from the European CCS/Type2. The only Chinese JAC iEV7 electric car officially presented in the Russian Federation comes with the CCS standard, confirmed to Kommersant in Rusgidrowise (JV Sollers Group and RusHydro structures of Hydroinvest JSC), which develops electric carsharing in the Far East with this car.

The Chinese GB/T standard is essentially replacing the CHAdeMO and CCS2 connectors, says Andrey Gurlenov, CEO of Sitronics Electro.

CHAdeMO is losing popularity, and the European CCS2 will lose ground due to the EU's refusal to export. It is China that is the leader in the number of electric vehicles produced, therefore, he believes, in a couple of years up to 70% of electric vehicles in the Russian Federation will be with a Chinese charging port. He expects that Russian-made electric vehicles will also be with a Chinese port. A preliminary request for proposals conducted by the Sitronics Group showed that such a station would cost from 3.3 million to 4 million rubles. in view of VAT.

Chery, which only planned to present electric vehicles in the Russian Federation, notes that the process of adaptation and certification of cars with the CCS standard has been launched for Russia. However, against the backdrop of government plans to install charging stations with mandatory GB / T, the company said there may reconsider its plans and return to it for this market as well.

Ilya Rashkin, the founder and CEO of Electric Vehicles Manufacturing Rus (produces an electric truck based on the UAZ Profi chassis), says that EVM PRO has two ports - GB / T and CHAdeMO, "so that the car is optimally versatile." “The CHAdeMO port is important for being able to charge at citywide charging stations, and GB/T is important, firstly, for our charging station that comes with the EVM PRO,” he explains. “Secondly, in the future, most of the stations that will be installed in Russia, will also be equipped with GB/T connectors.”

In the GAZ group, which has an electric Gazelle e-NN, they told Kommersant that “more powerful” charges will be needed in the future: “The combination of fast charges (90 kW), ultra-fast (200 kW ) and inexpensive night charging, for which there is enough power and less than 90 kW. “However, it is important for us that there is a CCS standard, it is suitable for e-NN, and this is, in principle, the most universal standard,” GAZ concluded.