New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China

tphuang

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This is the problem with foreign automakers trying to sell EVs in China. Too expensive. The sale price for SUV here is way higher than BYD Seal and as high as D9 MPVs. It's just not competitive with similar priced NIO ES6. And not appealing to other consumers who would buy BYD Song
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This is the important part of look at. 25.7% of potential NEV buyers in China prefer BYD.
This matches what I'm seeing on social media. Report from car city in Taiyuan, which is probably a 3rd tier city, show that only BYD is getting customers coming in out of their stores. Song+ DM-i is doing well (multi-month wait time). Same with Dolphin. Song EV has cars now. I think BYD is going to make its biggest gains in the 3rd to 5th tier cities where Tesla and NIO are probably too expensive. Dolphin and Seagull in the future will do well here.

Apparently, D9 is already getting close to 10k orders in the future 24 hours. Pretty impressive compared to the new Voyah Dreamer MPV, which had 3k orders in the first 3 days. This is not a big market, so 10k would be a lot of orders. BYD is looking to produce about 100k D9s a year and will be using its latest manufacturing tooling in Changsha to do so.

BYD looks to be setting Denza up as their luxury brand. They will be releasing a medium sized SUV (similar to ES6) and larger SUV (similar to ES8) in the second half of this year. All will be produced at Changsha.
 

tphuang

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Capacity is really not fully restored in Shanghai for May. Supply chain issues. So, that will hurt SAIC and Tesla. BYD also has the Changsha shutdown issue. We will see how many they can deliver in May.

There is a promotion for automakers in rural area for cars under 150k RMB in June. This will probably help all those class A00 NEVs like Wuling Hanguang mini EV and even BYD Dolphin

Denza Z9 officially had 5679 orders in the first 24 hours. Not as much as some originally estimated, but still very good for a first day. I fully expect first day Seal to just crush this number.
Article reflecting on Denza brand
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I think Mercedes expected its JV with BYD to be like the one it has with the traditional Chinese automakers and then found out BYD is not going give a lot of effort unless it collects most of the profit. So now that BYD is up to 90% of JV, Denza is getting the full BYD push again. I wonder if this is what will happen to the Toyota JV. BYD is using this to string Toyota along until Toyota just depends on BYD to build their cars. That would be a good strategy if it works.
 

tphuang

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Regarding lithium, looks like BYD finally managed to secure supply for itself. It can always just buy off the market, but normally you'd want to secure supply in order to avoid falling victim to market disruptions
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Keep in mind that China has been working very hard securing Lithium resources across the world. Those meetings with the Taliban are quite important. Absolutely insane, Afghanistan could have reserves rivaling Bolivia. It's going to be a big part of BRI if that's the case. Fyi, copper is also very important in EVs.
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Canada's liberal government has no problem with China buying it's lithium miner (unlike certain other US ally in the South Pacific)
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Who could've guessed, the Himalayas could have huge lithium deposits.
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there was another one I had which showed China had acquired the most lithium asset of anyone in 2021. Never mind, it's here
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If lithium is the oil of 21st century, then China would be wise to snap them up.
 

tphuang

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The electric viking has a new video out on NIO ES7. Have to say, they make some nice cars.

Of course, the problem for them is that BYD is looking to take over the whole market and is much better at ramping up production and vertical integration. As Denza was getting released, I totally forgot that I read about the XingKong series (Starry Sky), which is BYD's planned luxury series lineup of cars (targeting in the 500k+ RMB range).
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It's suppose to be more luxurious than Denza and looking to challenge Benz and Model X in luxury class. The 4 product lineup For BYD will be:
- dynasty series
- marine series
- Denza series
- Starry Sky series.

It will be on a whole new technological platform.
 
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