This is going to be the Toyota Corolla of the 21st century.
New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) in China
- Thread starter supercat
- Start date
I don't think Wuling mini ev will be accepted as a "true" people's car. It's way too small and lacking in power even for slightly longer city trips. It's only suitable for really short distance city trips.
Changan Benben and Sehol e10x are examples of what I'd like to see more of, ~1000kg kerb weight, range of 301km, not completely death traps.
Their prices got increased from 40k to around 70k rmb due to battery shortage but this class of cars should fall back to the USD10k range within a few years.
I just realised is that Huawei is making their own drive system called DriveOne consisting of all the key drive components like motor, motor control, inverters, charging system etc
This could be the key to saving failing SOEs like BAIC, Dongfeng and FAW who are failing to create their own brand of vehicles as they don't have good technology of their own, either in ICE or EV. They could leverage Huawei's prowess in drive system but retain control over the other design components like chassis and battery.
While stronger companies like Changan, BYD, GAC, Geely (questionable), SAIC (questionable) would create their own drive system so there's still some competition.
This could be the key to saving failing SOEs like BAIC, Dongfeng and FAW who are failing to create their own brand of vehicles as they don't have good technology of their own, either in ICE or EV. They could leverage Huawei's prowess in drive system but retain control over the other design components like chassis and battery.
While stronger companies like Changan, BYD, GAC, Geely (questionable), SAIC (questionable) would create their own drive system so there's still some competition.
Considering that HongGuang Mini EV now sells under USD5K now, it has potentials. Among the domestic manufacturers, SAIC's quality is above average. So given some time, it could evolve to a point. Their current strategy is to saturate that market segment, just like what they did with "五菱面滴" some 20 years ago.
Controversial opinion but I actually don't think cars should be selling for 4.5k. It's not really possible to create a decent and safe car at that price even with China's manufacturing prowess.
Around 9-10k for an okayish car with okayish safety should be a minimum. Otherwise the hidden costs (road jams, urban parking space, accidents) outweigh the benefits for society
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supercat
Major
I think LG Chemical and SK (another South Korea battery manufacturer) are working on LFP batteries. I'm not sure they can ever catch up Chinese battery makers in market share though, because Chinese LFP productions have already reached such a massive scale and are still expanding at a neck-breaking speed.
The battle for raw materials is truly global. Sometimes you really wonder why some of the Westerns hate and demonize the Chinese, although Chinese acquired all their mineral resources in a peaceful and legitimate manner, unlike Western colonialists and imperialists in the past.
A lot of these guys are in trouble. What BYD has done since early 2021 is changing the entire Chinese auto industry. They are going from 1 series of cars (dynasty) to 4. They are planning to cover the entire spectrum of car types. The genius part of what they did is DM-i/DM-p engines. There is just no way Huawei's drive system could compete with the efficiency of what BYD has created over 15 years. There is a reason that BYD has been success in the past year. All the technology it had been working on for 15 years all basically matured at the same time for mass production. DM-i is effectively replacing the traditional ICE cars for people that don't feel comfortable switching to purely battery yet. That the difference of going alone and persevering over many years vs just getting fed the technology. All these technologies that BYD has developed are probably available for sale to other automakers. Most of the EV startups in China are probably not going to make it. My guess is that Geely probably will be able to make it. They have enough going on. A lot of the old state owned ones will probably get bought out by the surviving ones.
The Chinese market is brutal. A lot of Western ones that had been making a fortune off the Chinese market will now be suffering. VW is the prime example. BYD going for 500k a year to 4 to 5 million a year over the course of 3 or 4 years is going to put a lot of competition on ventilators.
It really does not. It's fortunes have already been crushed by several new entrant into the market in the same class. This space is very low margin and really competitive. You don't want to be stuck there.
Out of the ones we've seen, I could see BYD Dolphin doing really well long term in the international market.
In the medium-term, automobiles are going to be commoditised like smartphones.
The motors will be standard, the batteries will be fairly standardised as well, the operating system for the car and infotainment system etc etc
Think the difference between smartphones from Apple, Huawei, Samsung, Xiaomi, etc
But we're at the beginning of the transport revolution heralded by electric vehicles, so you can't buy components off the shelf yet.
What about Nio?
I could see Geely surviving and emerging as a sleeper hit. It's extremely smart acquisitions of Volvo, Lotus etc has its foundations more solid compared to other EV companies. I'm not sure what is its battery strategy though
The current growth trend For BYD is a huge threat to not just foreign automakers, but also domestic ones. I do think that in the end, when people say the competition is between Chinese automakers and Tesla in the new EV environment, that we will actually just see BYD and Tesla battle it out. BYD has kind of avoided encroaching into the space occupied by Tesla/NIO/XPeng up to this point. But as we've seen in the last few days, that won't be the case going forward. They are going for the entire passenger vehicle markets. From Sea Gull in the A00 segment to their new luxury segment brand. The pace at which they are release models is quite insane. So we have just in 2nd half of May.
D9 May 16
Seal May 20
new Tang EV May 22
Frigate 07 May 28
At this pace, BYD is becoming the new GM or VW in terms of product lineup coverage and competing brand. The only difference is that BYD can supply itself the batteries and chips needed to transition to NEV world, while GM/VW cannot. If we look at America, Ford is about half its size and Chrysler/Stellantis also counts. Since China is a larger market, we can count on 3 or 4 other major brand surviving.
If we assume Geely is one of them due to its exports and product lineup and foreign brands, then I would say other former domestic brand from ICE era like Chery isn't going to last. BYD will be buying out their factories once these companies fail. Keep in mind that as foreign JVs give up due to tough market conditions, their Chinese JV partners will also go under. I see that's where BYD expand into.
Among new EV startups, we basically have NIO, XPeng, Li auto and Leapmotor as the most well known one. I'd guess 2 out of 4 of them survive. If they were smart, they'd probably merge with each other to quickly scale up.
NIO seems to be quite ambitious with their product lineup this year with ET5, ET7, ES7 and the new sub-brand ALP, but it's production numbers are just not there.
You look at the current pace of product launch, new factories, new battery factories from BYD, the other automakers are probably wondering when BYD will slow down and give them chance. When the Sea Gull gets launched (probably later this year), it will directly clash with the A00 class cars like Wuling mini EV. It will put a direct squeeze not only on Wuling, but also all the other automakers that had been living off the sub 100k RMB market. Sea Gull will definitely be more capable than its competition at a higher price. It will be interesting to see if people are willing to pay 40% more to buy BYD product over Wuling mini or Chery QQ. Think about it this way. As BYD becomes a huge brand in China, people will all want to buy one. Right now, the cheapest they can buy is Dolphin. That is still too expensive and too capable for a lot of young city dwellers. Sea Gull would be a nice entry level car for young couples that just drive around in city.
And if that isn't scary enough, BYD is also encroaching on all the non-passenger vehicle segment. It's going after taxis, mass city transportation buses, long range buses, commercial trucks, garbage trucks, construction vehicles, airport transports, sea port transport, fork lifts and others. The only thing it hasn't got into so far are electric airplanes. If I were to guess, it will try to get into there also.
D9 May 16
Seal May 20
new Tang EV May 22
Frigate 07 May 28
At this pace, BYD is becoming the new GM or VW in terms of product lineup coverage and competing brand. The only difference is that BYD can supply itself the batteries and chips needed to transition to NEV world, while GM/VW cannot. If we look at America, Ford is about half its size and Chrysler/Stellantis also counts. Since China is a larger market, we can count on 3 or 4 other major brand surviving.
If we assume Geely is one of them due to its exports and product lineup and foreign brands, then I would say other former domestic brand from ICE era like Chery isn't going to last. BYD will be buying out their factories once these companies fail. Keep in mind that as foreign JVs give up due to tough market conditions, their Chinese JV partners will also go under. I see that's where BYD expand into.
Among new EV startups, we basically have NIO, XPeng, Li auto and Leapmotor as the most well known one. I'd guess 2 out of 4 of them survive. If they were smart, they'd probably merge with each other to quickly scale up.
NIO seems to be quite ambitious with their product lineup this year with ET5, ET7, ES7 and the new sub-brand ALP, but it's production numbers are just not there.
You look at the current pace of product launch, new factories, new battery factories from BYD, the other automakers are probably wondering when BYD will slow down and give them chance. When the Sea Gull gets launched (probably later this year), it will directly clash with the A00 class cars like Wuling mini EV. It will put a direct squeeze not only on Wuling, but also all the other automakers that had been living off the sub 100k RMB market. Sea Gull will definitely be more capable than its competition at a higher price. It will be interesting to see if people are willing to pay 40% more to buy BYD product over Wuling mini or Chery QQ. Think about it this way. As BYD becomes a huge brand in China, people will all want to buy one. Right now, the cheapest they can buy is Dolphin. That is still too expensive and too capable for a lot of young city dwellers. Sea Gull would be a nice entry level car for young couples that just drive around in city.
And if that isn't scary enough, BYD is also encroaching on all the non-passenger vehicle segment. It's going after taxis, mass city transportation buses, long range buses, commercial trucks, garbage trucks, construction vehicles, airport transports, sea port transport, fork lifts and others. The only thing it hasn't got into so far are electric airplanes. If I were to guess, it will try to get into there also.