Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

Some interesting things I read over the past few days.

1. Bai Suocheng is personally unpopular with the people in the region. He is considered a sellout. Peng Jiasheng was more popular.
2. According to WSJ (do not have the link), Tatmadaw forces are being bombed continuously with Matrice-sized drones and reconned by Mavic-size ones. Since they are operating from fixed outposts, they will bomb facilities to make life miserable and force surrender. I guess they do not have effective AA.
3. Fully Light's legitimate casino/tourism business was started by Peng to become "crime/drug free" (more realistically, less crime/drugs), and this was all handed over to Bai by Tatmadaw when Peng was pushed out and Bai's faction anointed the Border Guard Force

What is the Chinese governments level of tolerance of criminal activities on the border? It generally seems like keep Chinese citizens safe from violence, keep drugs out of China, don't traffic Chinese citizens. They don't like gambling and prostitution, but accept it as a trade off for these people to have some useful less violent criminal activity. Wa state seems to operate in this way.

Temstar said:

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Cat's Paw says MNDAA is in central Laukkai and is now in control of the city.
This fits with previous rumors about the peace talk where supposedly Junta agreed to peacefully hand over Laukkai if MNDAA let's them pull out in peace. Cat's Paw also says people have noticed helicopter take off from Bai residence.

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This also roughly correspond with the rumored deadline for Laukkai being Dec 16th

Fighting reignites in Laukkai, seems like groups not covered by the ceasefire intends to continue.



Military's strongest warrior with the strength of 75 men night ambushes MNDAA forces

Ceasefire is dead. Fighting in the city as well as surrounding hills.


City taking damage, bombs and shelling.



A bunch of Z-20s arrive to enforce border. Myanmar military continue to reinforce their mountain bases via helicopter.

Why can't China reign in the TNLA and AA since a look at the map tells where they are getting their supplies.

ren0312 said:

Why can't China reign in the TNLA and AA since a look at the map tells where they are getting their supplies.

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I think china don't want to. I don't know about TNLA, but AA did attack India kadalan project which was favor china.

ren0312 said:

Why can't China reign in the TNLA and AA since a look at the map tells where they are getting their supplies.

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resistance said:

I think china don't want to. I don't know about TNLA, but AA did attack India kadalan project which was favor china.

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What a terrible understanding of geopolitics.

China does not "reign in" these groups because it does not control them. If China prevent these groups from getting Chinese weapons, they simply get them from somewhere else, it would be more difficult but they would continue.

What to do after that? simply demand everyone else not sell them weapons as well? Why go through all this to oppose these groups? why is China obligated to fight Myanmar's civil war for the government?

China doesn't give these groups weapons btw, a simple cursory look at their weapons shows mostly KIA and UWSA type 81s.

PLAEnthusiast. said:

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After questioning those repatriated from Laukkaing, authorities concluded that 174 were actually human trafficking victims, Pol Maj Gen Manop said, adding they were lured by the scammers with the promise...

Pol Gen Surachate said authorities were still trying to figure out how the rest ended up in Myanmar. However, he said that out of the 525 people brought back to Thailand, 20 were wanted by law enforcement...

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Hmm. I think MNDAA will stop after achieve this.