Myanmar/Burma civil conflict

windsclouds2030

windsclouds2030

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ARREST WARRANT IN KOKANG (11 December 2023)

The founder of Kokang region’s Border Guard Force (BGF) – who has been backed Myanmar’s military – has been named by Chinese authorities as the “main suspect” behind cyber crimes in the region and is named on an arrest warrant issued on Sunday along with other nine senior bosses allegedly involved in online scams.

The warrant describes Bai Suocheng as the main suspect in a cyber-scam syndicate operating in Kokang, which borders China in northern Shan State. Bai Suocheng (74) is also a former administrative chairman of the region, which is known officially as Kokang Self-Administered Zone. Sunday’s warrants are part of an intensifying crackdown against online scams in areas of Myanmar that border China. Bai Suocheng’s son Bai Yingcang is also named on the arrest warrant. Other high-ranking Kokang officials and business leaders named on the warrant include its current Border Guard Force commander, Wei San, and the president of the region’s biggest conglomerate, Fully Light Group, Liu Zhengxiang. Two of Liu’s Fully Light Group colleagues are also named on the warrant.

The arrest warrant was issued after investigations found “solid evidence” that the 10 individuals (eight men and two women) were involved in cyber scams, a statement from the Chinese police said. The 10 people were not only deeply involved in running online scams but had also committed other very serious crimes, including torture and forced detention, the warrant says. It also says that the 10 individuals had been responsible for suicides. Police announced a reward of 100,000 to 500,000 yuan for information leading to the arrest of the 10 individuals.

Nestled in the northeastern corner of Myanmar’s Shan State along the border with China, Kokang Self-Administered Zone is home to ethnic Kokang people who speak Mandarin and use China’s currency. Bai Suocheng took control of the autonomous enclave in August 2009, when he was deputy commander of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). He drove its octogenarian chairman, Peng Jiasheng, out of Kokang with the help of Myanmar’s military.

Bai Suocheng was appointed chairman of Kokang Self-Administered Zone as a reward for his assistance to Myanmar’s military. He subsequently founded the Kokang Border Guard Force, which has been backed by Myanmar’s military, including the current leadership. The Kokang Border Guard Force began crumbling after the launch of "Operation 1027" in late October. The coordinated offensive against Myanmar's military – and its allies – by three ethnic armed groups, including the MNDAA, is wiping Myanmar’s military and its allies from the zone and other areas in northern Myanmar.

The MNDAA is now poised to seize Kokang’s capital, Laukkai, and is led by the son of the man Bai Suocheng ousted. The Brotherhood Alliance, as the three armed groups are called, also announced that one of the missions of "Operation 1027" was to eradicate online scams in the area.

Bai Yingcang (31), the son of Bai Suocheng, is the general manager of Myanmar Yum Group. He also chairs Cangsheng Technology Park, previously led a Kokang militia and oversaw Kokang Self-Administered Zone’s financial bureau.

Sunday’s arrest warrants are part of an ongoing effort by Chinese authorities to crack down on online scams syndicates operating along its border with Myanmar. Beijing has been irritated by the proliferation of the syndicates along its border, including in Kokang, and has been pushing Myanmar to take serious action against the syndicates since the middle of this year.

In late November, Myanmar said that since September it had rounded up about 31,000 suspects along its border with China and handed them over to Chinese authorities. Security analysts said that the majority of those handed over to Chinese authorities were low-level suspects, despite the presence of a few scam-center leaders. In mid-November, three alleged ringleaders wanted by China were arrested in Laukkai, Kokang’s capital. A fourth suspect, Ming Xuechang, shot himself during a raid and later died, according to Myanmar’s media.

Sunday’s arrest warrants came after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Myanmar counterpart Than Swe in Beijing last week. Myanmar media reported that the fight against online scams was among the topics they discussed. (An opposition media, also funded by US, named after the biggest river there)
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windsclouds2030

windsclouds2030

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[08 December 2023] Chinese special envoy Deng Xijun recently traveled to the China-Myanmar border and held meetings with several leaders of key ethnic forces including the MNDAA, TNLA and AA. He also held a separate meeting with representatives of the Kachin Independence Army. Ethnic leaders sensed that China is concerned about the growing instability on the border and worried that if the current government cannot control Myanmar, who will?

China’s southwestern province of Yunnan shares a 2,000-km border with Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin states.

As Than Swe met with Wang Yi in Beijing (06 Dec 2023), Myanmar media reported that Myanmar and China discussed accelerating construction of the Kyaukphyu deep-seaport in western Myanmar’s Rakhine State and a railroad linking Rakhine with Yunnan Province via Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar. Analysts say the Myanmar junta plans to speed up the railroad project soon to please China, in a quid pro quo.

China remains Myanmar's key supporter and arms supplier. In the last week of November three Chinese navy ships arrived in Myanmar for joint drills with the Myanmar navy, to show that Myanmar remained an important ally. In the same week, the Chinese military began live-fire drills across the border from northern Shan State, beefing up security as violence escalated between Myanmar military and armed rebel groups.

The “real combat training” on the Chinese side of the border aimed to test the “rapid mobilizing, border sealing, and fire strike [capabilities]” of the PLA, its Southern Theater Command said. “[Our] troops are always prepared to respond to various unexpected situations and are determined to safeguard [China’s] national sovereignty, border stability, and the safety of people’s lives and property,” a spokesman was quoted as saying on the command’s official WeChat social media account. This is interesting.

China’s live-fire exercise and port calls were clear signals to those inside Myanmar and external forces, including the West, that Beijing will not allow the country to destabilize.
 
RedMetalSeadramon

RedMetalSeadramon

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windsclouds2030 said:
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[08 December 2023] Chinese special envoy Deng Xijun recently traveled to the China-Myanmar border and held meetings with several leaders of key ethnic forces including the MNDAA, TNLA and AA. He also held a separate meeting with representatives of the Kachin Independence Army. Ethnic leaders sensed that China is concerned about the growing instability on the border and worried that if the current government cannot control Myanmar, who will?

China’s southwestern province of Yunnan shares a 2,000-km border with Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin states.

As Than Swe met with Wang Yi in Beijing (06 Dec 2023), Myanmar media reported that Myanmar and China discussed accelerating construction of the Kyaukphyu deep-seaport in western Myanmar’s Rakhine State and a railroad linking Rakhine with Yunnan Province via Mandalay, the second-largest city in Myanmar. Analysts say the Myanmar junta plans to speed up the railroad project soon to please China, in a quid pro quo.

China remains Myanmar's key supporter and arms supplier. In the last week of November three Chinese navy ships arrived in Myanmar for joint drills with the Myanmar navy, to show that Myanmar remained an important ally. In the same week, the Chinese military began live-fire drills across the border from northern Shan State, beefing up security as violence escalated between Myanmar military and armed rebel groups.

The “real combat training” on the Chinese side of the border aimed to test the “rapid mobilizing, border sealing, and fire strike [capabilities]” of the PLA, its Southern Theater Command said. “[Our] troops are always prepared to respond to various unexpected situations and are determined to safeguard [China’s] national sovereignty, border stability, and the safety of people’s lives and property,” a spokesman was quoted as saying on the command’s official WeChat social media account. This is interesting.

China’s live-fire exercise and port calls were clear signals to those inside Myanmar and external forces, including the West, that Beijing will not allow the country to destabilize.
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Irrawaddy is a NED funded regime change operation.
 
RedMetalSeadramon

RedMetalSeadramon

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K

KangarooPriest

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Temstar said:
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Peace talk now in progress, it would be curious to know what sort of deal MNDAA is looking for. Probably take over the roles of four families themselves with greater autonomy.
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A "permanent" ceasefire right now would probably be bad for the TBA's relations with other groups like the PDFs and even the KIA, unless they find a way to spin it. They talked a lot about everyone being united against the Junta, so it'd be a bad look if they took what they wanted and then left the fight.
 
coolgod

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KangarooPriest said:
A "permanent" ceasefire right now would probably be bad for the TBA's relations with other groups like the PDFs and even the KIA, unless they find a way to spin it. They talked a lot about everyone being united against the Junta, so it'd be a bad look if they took what they wanted and then left the fight.
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The TBA is not important at all compared to China. The MNDAA already got China's approval for administering Kokang, the Junta also accepted the proposal. The Junta supposedly will accelerate the China-Myanmar corridor, this requires peace within the region and for this the Junta gained China's support. The current deal is a win win win deal, it is illogical to sacrifice this deal for some random CIA backed insurgency group.
 
RedMetalSeadramon

RedMetalSeadramon

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coolgod said:
The TBA is not important at all compared to China. The MNDAA already got China's approval for administering Kokang, the Junta also accepted the proposal. The Junta supposedly will accelerate the China-Myanmar corridor, this requires peace within the region and for this the Junta gained China's support. The current deal is a win win win deal, it is illogical to sacrifice this deal for some random CIA backed insurgency group.
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Deal only applies to Kokang, since the battle for Namkham is heating up, with helicopter reinforcements from the government.

The Ruili-Muse crossing is the most important crossing, some 60% cross border trade goes through it.

KangarooPriest said:
A "permanent" ceasefire right now would probably be bad for the TBA's relations with other groups like the PDFs and even the KIA, unless they find a way to spin it. They talked a lot about everyone being united against the Junta, so it'd be a bad look if they took what they wanted and then left the fight.
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MNDAA has no real relationship with PDF/western back groups other than minor weapons for participation deals. They didnt say anything about unity with non-northern groups. They only really owe TNLA here, but they're already working in Monekoe so this is expected to continue.
 
Temstar

Temstar

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Cat's Paw says MNDAA is in central Laukkai and is now in control of the city.
This fits with previous rumors about the peace talk where supposedly Junta agreed to peacefully hand over Laukkai if MNDAA let's them pull out in peace. Cat's Paw also says people have noticed helicopter take off from Bai residence.
 
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