Not something the size of a carrier. They're very compartmentalized, large ships. You'll need several hits at least to mission kill.
Disintegration?
The USS America (CV-66) managed to survive 25 days of explosive testing, and was then scuttled.
And mind you, the USS America is 20% smaller than the Nimitz or Ford CVNs.
The difficulties of putting an AShBM on target aside....
To mission kill a carrier I think a hit-to-kill warhead isn't the way to go, partly because that means much greater requirements of accuracy.
How heavy is the warhead that they can lob aboard DF-21D? about 2000kg? Bit less?
Fuse two tons worth of ball bearings or bomblets to disperse in an optimal way that will cover the most area over the flight deck. Should reliably kill any planes, crew on board. And even if the carrier has sufficient warning to hide planes and crew beneath, the flight deck itself with its catapults, and the squishy sensors and protruding electronics on the island will be torn to shreds, rendering flight ops difficult if not near impossible to continue without major repairs, thus you get a mission kill.
Not as awe inspiring as images of a torpedo crippling a ship like a branch, but probably more realistic.
On that note, have there been any recent tests of torpedoes against large ships like carriers? A mk 48 has about 300 kg of warhead and can split most ships clean in two beneath the keel. I wonder if a DF-21D penetrating warhead like a bunker buster could be designed to explode near the keel to cause similar damage