Modern Carrier Battle Group..Strategies and Tactics

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Actually the X-47 does not have to penetrate that far into the Chinese air defense network. Since the ASBM is coming to kill the carrier, all the UAV and other platforms have to do is position themselves along the likely route of travel and intercept the missile when it is most vulnerable - the boost stage. Since the X-47 knows the location of the carrier, all other missiles can be ignored.

A refined AIM-54 Phoenix missile or Russian Novator K-100 could both do the job of intercepting a boosting missile.

At the very least the X-47 platform could give early warning of a launch and cue other defenses on where to pick up the incoming missile. At least that's how I would play it. Does that sound logical?

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

NikeX said:

Actually the X-47 does not have to penetrate that far into the Chinese air defense network. Since the ASBM is coming to kill the carrier, all the UAV and other platforms have to do is position themselves along the likely route of travel and intercept the missile when it is most vulnerable - the boost stage. Since the X-47 knows the location of the carrier, all other missiles can be ignored.

A refined AIM-54 Phoenix missile or Russian Novator K-100 could both do the job of intercepting a boosting missile.

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Well why not send an F-22 armed with AIM-120D instead to do the job?
You'll have to modify X-47B extensively with the A2A avionics not to mention it's range still isn't enough to cross the 2700km.
And that's saying the idea is feasible in the first place. I think there's a tom clancy novel where an apache shot down a boost stage ICBM with a sidewinder. the closest real life approximation to that is the airborne laser which is meant to shoot down boost stage missiles (its success at the moment is questionable).

And if you knew where DF-21D launchers were in the first place, why not just use virginia SSNs to launch some tomahawks? Of course there's no guarantee they'll hit, as high value targets will likely be defended by C-RAM systems lke LD2000 and likely J-7s with KJ AEW support, but it certainly sound more logical than sending in a ucav (which doesn't exist yet) to wait along what one hopes is the flight path and fire an air to air missile while it's in boost phase...

At the very least the X-47 platform could give early warning of a launch and cue other defenses on where to pick up the incoming missile. At least that's how I would play it. Does that sound logical?

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Well then it'll just be another surveillance asset and not a "counter"... which is what I've been trying to say this whole time.
Aside from BMD, the other real "counters" is simply to attack the chinese C4ISR network in the asia pacific region. satellites, microsats, submarines, OTH radar stations, uavs, mpas, any sosus like systems, even fishing boats. Any could and probably would be used to search for carriers in a time of conflict. And given the low chances of actually knowing where DF-21D launchers woudl be during wartime (what's difference between a DF-21C and D from satellite?), their all terrain TELs and likely decoys which would be set up i case any strikers managed to get through the IADS in the first place... it might be easier to attack the sensors supporting the missile system rather than the missile itself.
Not as glamorous, but certainly easier to do and you'll be removing a sensor asset which can be used for other non AShBM purposes too. Isn't to say they won't have back ups but still.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Let's speculate! An RQ-170 was lost. The Iranians detected and took it down. What does that say about about an X-47? You think they're going use it anywhere near China?

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

^ Well in wartime all bets will be off, and China isn't far away from building their own UCAS like plane now anyway so I think they will certainly try to use X-47Bs, whether they have the range for CVNs to stay out of AShBM killzone is another quesiton.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

I'm sure it's not that much a bigger problem putting an ASBM warhead onto a longer range missile. It's just all about detecting where the carrier is at. Also they can place the ASBM further inland where they'd never think to look. China is as big as the US. They had trouble finding Serb armor in Kosovo and it was difficult to tell decoy from the real thing. Plenty of ways for China to play this game.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

Well why not send an F-22 armed with AIM-120D instead to do the job?

Why risk such a valuable asset when a stealthy UAV can do the job

And if you knew where DF-21D launchers were in the first place, why not just use virginia SSNs to launch some tomahawks?

That's the rub. You don't know where the DF-21D launchers are so you wait until they commit, that is launch their missiles and then intercept them in flight. And since you, the X-47 knows the general area of the carrier, you position the X-47 along the expected axis of attack on the carrier and then shoot at any missiles being launched that way. Using the X-47 as an interceptor gives you early shots at the missile as it is in its boost stage and before it can deploy countermeasures. I do believe the X-47 can carry two Phoenix sized missiles internally. Using stealthy UAVs in the interceptor role would be a nasty surprise for someone attacking the carrier. And it works in Iran too.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

I'm sure it's not that much a bigger problem putting an ASBM warhead onto a longer range missile. It's just all about detecting where the carrier is at. Also they can place the ASBM further inland where they'd never think to look. China is as big as the US. They had trouble finding Serb armor in Kosovo and it was difficult to tell decoy from the real thing. Plenty of ways for China to play this game.

Yes China can position their missiles further inland but as soon as they are launched, they present a beautiful IR target that says "look at me I am a missile". And with an early positive track on their trajectory you have longer to plot missions to shoot them down or avoid them. The key is giving the forces tasked to protecting the carrier as much time as possible to respond to the launch. Its a time thing.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

NikeX said:

Well why not send an F-22 armed with AIM-120D instead to do the job?

Why risk such a valuable asset when a stealthy UAV can do the job

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Fair enough -- though F-22s already exist and are ready for the job. If not F-22s, why not F-35s instead of effectively building an entirely new X-47 variant or UCAV altogether?

And if you knew where DF-21D launchers were in the first place, why not just use virginia SSNs to launch some tomahawks?

That's the rub. You don't know where the DF-21D launchers are so you wait until they commit, that is launch their missiles and then intercept them in flight. And since you, the X-47 knows the general area of the carrier, you position the X-47 along the expected axis of attack on the carrier and then shoot at any missiles being launched that way. Using the X-47 as an interceptor gives you early shots at the missile as it is in its boost stage and before it can deploy countermeasures. I do believe the X-47 can carry two Phoenix sized missiles internally. Using stealthy UAVs in the interceptor role would be a nasty surprise for someone attacking the carrier. And it works in Iran too.

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Wouldn't SSNs know the general area of USN carriers as well and therefore have this "axis of attack". If you knew the general area of the launcher why wait for it to show up, why not use other satellite and if possible, uav assets to ID targets and destroy it earlier with cruise missiles instead of complex A2A from uav concepts?
And the whole idea of knowing where DF-21D might be is no simple matter to assume, given it's not exactly a ballistic straight line from land to carrier and even if it was, the TEL can be at any point inland few hundred KMs from the chinese coast and still cover a massive portion of westpac. Sure early warning radars and IR sensor assets will pick up the missile but if you're a few hundred kms away (warded by IADS) it won't do you much good. Now tracking the missile will obviously allow midcourse interception (let's get real, boostphase interception is very, very unlikely. simply getting close enough will be a challenge) -- and that's a matter of whether there are additional detroyers or cruisers stationed between the launch area and the cvbg. If there isn't then it's a matter for terminal ballistic defense. Either way, once DF-21D is in the air it's a matter of the defenders vs the attacker. Assuming both sides have optimal sensors and datalinks operational, it's whether SM-2/3/6 can hit a midflight+terminal maneovering KV, likely to be containing countermeasures/decoys.
So really at that point it's out of our hands.

For the defenders, try to degrade the AShBMs sensors and try to spot, then destroy DF-21D TELs if possible. For the attackers, hide and create decoy TELs and put out as many sensor assets as possible.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

NikeX said:

I'm sure it's not that much a bigger problem putting an ASBM warhead onto a longer range missile. It's just all about detecting where the carrier is at. Also they can place the ASBM further inland where they'd never think to look. China is as big as the US. They had trouble finding Serb armor in Kosovo and it was difficult to tell decoy from the real thing. Plenty of ways for China to play this game.

Yes China can position their missiles further inland but as soon as they are launched, they present a beautiful IR target that says "look at me I am a missile". And with an early positive track on their trajectory you have longer to plot missions to shoot them down or avoid them. The key is giving the forces tasked to protecting the carrier as much time as possible to respond to the launch. Its a time thing.

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It's called being too late. Is your X-47 going to have complete coverage everywhere? Not likely at all. Like I said before... the Serbs had something like 90% armor in tact at the end of the war. Just like you can believe the US will have a 100% effectiveness in shooting down a missile. I can say the ASBM will have countermeasure to fool any ABM.

Re: The End of the Carrier Age?

NikeX said:

Well why not send an F-22 armed with AIM-120D instead to do the job?

Why risk such a valuable asset when a stealthy UAV can do the job

And if you knew where DF-21D launchers were in the first place, why not just use virginia SSNs to launch some tomahawks?

That's the rub. You don't know where the DF-21D launchers are so you wait until they commit, that is launch their missiles and then intercept them in flight. And since you, the X-47 knows the general area of the carrier, you position the X-47 along the expected axis of attack on the carrier and then shoot at any missiles being launched that way. Using the X-47 as an interceptor gives you early shots at the missile as it is in its boost stage and before it can deploy countermeasures. I do believe the X-47 can carry two Phoenix sized missiles internally. Using stealthy UAVs in the interceptor role would be a nasty surprise for someone attacking the carrier. And it works in Iran too.

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The carrier is somewhere in the Pacific. The launcher might be in Tibet or near Urumqi. Where is your expected line of attack? And how high can you reach with your anti-missile missile carried by the X-47?