An extremely worrying Western behavior is they think they have infinite resolve but the other side has none. It was a problem in 1950 and it is an even bigger problem now. They also believe any compromise is a show of weakness which makes de-escalation extremely hard. I think there is a good chance we will see re-unification before 2026 with this logic. Biden admin is insane itself, The next one will likely be even more insane. Most people don't get how xenophobic and power-trippy conservatives in Anglosphere have grown. And Taiwan is like Ukraine of 2019-2021. They keep escalating all the problematic policies while dismissing China. They wouldn't allow this trip if they weren't salami slicing towards independence.
What I would do if I was the CPC? I would think about what I am trying to achieve, which is stopping the salami slicing. To do that you need to stop foreign encouragement and make this behavior undesirable for Taiwanese domestic politics.
1- Consider this a partial recognition by the USA and downgrade US relations. This would signal China is not intending to continue any relationship that is not based on one-China framework.
2- Armed overflight of Taiwan. This signals China is not shy about a military conflict. As importantly, not answering this would likely make Tsai less popular. Taiwanese politics became more US-like recently. The pro-independence side has a fetish for being tough. Of course it may scare the public into supporting the DPP too but I think the first outcome is more likely. If the first outcome happens, Taiwanese politicians will likely be less into deriving votes from independist behavior.
