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9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
Well, they wouldn't have started talking about sending military escorts if the Chinese military didn't threaten a military response. They wanted to just fly her there on a plane, have her vomit some words, then come back. Then China raised the stakes and said that the PLA could intervene to so not look soft, the US had to say their military would protect her flight and that's why there's a standoff for who backs down first. So it is symbolic; it just got bigger than what was originally imagined.

China doesn't want to fight now because the power dynamic is shifting towards China so future is better. The US doesn't want to fight because China is already strong enough with MAD ready but they know that the longer they wait, the worse it gets for them. It's like a guy in a room with a saw and an infected arm: he waits, he's gonna die; if he saws it off, it is unbelievably painful right now, and he could still fail or die from the new wound. If either China or the US had already decided to start a war, this is not how an intelligent country would ramp it up because this war between two nuclear powers needs no ramp up. Surprise all out nuclear blitz is the correct opening move if war is already decided.

For the record, I think if the talk on Thursday doesn't result in the visit being cancelled, Pelosi will land on Taiwan but her flight will be harrassed by the PLAAF and they might do armed flyovers right in the middle of her trip, as she talks in public, right over her head, maybe even load up the chaff compartments with little Chinese flags and dump them all over her. And all sides, PRC, ROC, USA will have orders to not fire unless fired upon.
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Your last paragraph describes the best outcome or at least the least worst outcome....

There is zero chance the US will backdown or have the flight canceled.

As for MAD right out of the gate, thats certaintly an option US, Russia, China have etc but America still prefers to contain/guardrail the destruction to within Asia.... its still believes (naively) that it stands a good chance of winning and defeating China without its own homeland/cities getting glassed
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
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GlobalTimes is posting more detailed and serious threats.

@siegecrossbow I wonder if we should start another thread specifically for Strait Issues and Crisis News.

The PLA can send fighter jets to intercept Pelosi's plane if it approaches Taiwan, then escort it and have it landed in the Chinese mainland, another Chinese mainland military expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times on Wednesday.
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In addition, the PLA can conduct large-scale military drills around the island of Taiwan, including on the waters between Taiwan island and Japan as well as between Taiwan island and Guam, experts said. The drills should include joint efforts of all PLA service branches
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These political clowns will become special witnesses of China's reunification process.
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
9dashline said:
Your last paragraph describes the best outcome or at least the least worst outcome....
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It's the most likely outcome if the visit goes ahead. Nobody wants it to go hot and nobody wants to say they backed off so that's a likely middle.
9dashline said:
There is zero chance the US will backdown or have the flight canceled.
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There is not a zero chance; there is a good chance because the US has already hinted that there are several large parties including the president, who is opposed to it. For Biden to say that he came to some understandings with Xi so the trip is cancelled is very plausible at this point, but not at all guaranteed.
9dashline said:
As for MAD right out of the gate, thats certaintly an option US, Russia, China have etc but America still prefers to contain/guardrail the destruction to within Asia.... its still believes (naively) that it stands a good chance of winning and defeating China without its own homeland/cities getting glassed
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As long as it's not willing to commit to a full nuclear war, it has no chance to stop China from outgrowing it. This is the man with the saw and infected arm, gangrene to the bone, still trying to beat the infection by soaking it in tap water.
 
B

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
manqiangrexue said:
Well, they wouldn't have started talking about sending military escorts if the Chinese military didn't threaten a military response. They wanted to just fly her there on a plane, have her vomit some words, then come back. Then China raised the stakes and said that the PLA could intervene to so not look soft, the US had to say their military would protect her flight and that's why there's a standoff for who backs down first. So it is symbolic; it just got bigger than what was originally imagined.

China doesn't want to fight now because the power dynamic is shifting towards China so future is better. The US doesn't want to fight because China is already strong enough with MAD ready but they know that the longer they wait, the worse it gets for them. It's like a guy in a room with a saw and an infected arm: he waits, he's gonna die; if he saws it off, it is unbelievably painful right now, and he could still fail or die from the new wound. If either China or the US had already decided to start a war, this is not how an intelligent country would ramp it up because this war between two nuclear powers needs no ramp up. Surprise all out nuclear blitz is the correct opening move if war is already decided.

For the record, I think if the talk on Thursday doesn't result in the visit being cancelled, Pelosi will land on Taiwan but her flight will be harrassed by the PLAAF and they might do armed flyovers right in the middle of her trip, as she talks in public, right over her head. And all sides, PRC, ROC, USA will have orders to not fire unless fired upon.
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I can't agree with the talk about nuclear war, that benefits no one.

Even if we assume a scenario, all along, China was spending at 3.5% gdp and had put the hidden budget into nuclear defense, kinetic mid course interceptor works perfectly and there's thousands in tunnel networks secretly built across the mainland. And now, China invokes "all warfare is based on deception" and revealed talks about nukes only being used for second strike was a bluff meant to enhance a first strike. The rocket force hits the US mainland with 1000 thermonuclear warheads, and then intercept every sporadic American return strike.

So after that, what will happen? The fallout from the nuclear strike will devastate global climate. Even if China was unscathed by second strikes, China's population will starve due to lack of global harvest. But not as badly as people in the third world would starve.

Any nuclear war even ones that end in complete "victory" will lead to all progress made by China to get wiped out and possibly even the end of human civilization.

Nuclear war can only be played as a dead man's hand, as die together option to deny the fascists from claiming global hegemony if the workers' conventional defense would ever fail. Death is preferable over nazi rule and imperialism. This has always been China's only stance towards nuclear use.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Biscuits said:
I can't agree with the talk about nuclear war, that benefits no one.

Even if we assume a scenario, all along, China was spending at 3.5% gdp and had put the hidden budget into nuclear defense, kinetic mid course interceptor works perfectly and there's thousands in tunnel networks secretly built across the mainland. And now, China invokes "all warfare is based on deception" and revealed talks about nukes only being used for second strike was a bluff meant to enhance a first strike. The rocket force hits the US mainland with 1000 thermonuclear warheads, and then intercept every sporadic American return strike.

So after that, what will happen? The fallout from the nuclear strike will devastate global climate. Even if China was unscathed by second strikes, China's population will starve due to lack of global harvest. But not as badly as people in the third world would starve.

Any nuclear war even ones that end in complete "victory" will lead to all progress made by China to get wiped out and possibly even the end of human civilization.

Nuclear war can only be played as a dead man's hand, as die together option to deny the fascists from claiming global hegemony if the workers' conventional defense would ever fail. Death is preferable over nazi rule and imperialism. This has always been China's only stance towards nuclear use.
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I think you missed the point. I meant to counter 9dash's argument that this pattern represents America's committment to all out war with China and I say it's not; this is still posturing because the only real way to start all out war between nuclear superpowers is nuclear all out first strike. I'm not saying anybody should do that. It's especially bad for China because Americans had their (brief) reign but China's is just beginning so having the world end now for the Chinese is like have the the store close (or even go out of business, in this case) when you're next in line.
 
K

Kaeshmiri

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its not a confidence that this trip is few months before the Party Congress.. They're testing Xi and how far will he go. Afterall politically he'll be seen as weak by party hawks and possibly the general public if this trip is successful . This may even endanger his possible 3rd term.

Because PLA has already issued serious threats, any backing down would be perceived as China being weak & bluffing.
The only response left is to do what is required Militarily. China cant indicate hesitancy and meekness at all. As the date approaches and US realizes that China isnt bluffing, they'll call off the trip themselves using a myriad of excuses.

People here give too much credit to American threats and assuming that they wont back down. They will and you'll see soon.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
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It's all Kabuki theatre. For domestic audience purposes, Biden cannot appear to be defer to China all the time. So if it removes China Tariffs, it has to do something else to "Appear" tough on China, even if it's a symbolic visit by someone else. I'm betting Biden will privately assure Xi Jinping during their Thursday call of US position on Taiwan has not changed, and China's reaction to Pelosi-visit will be unprecedented, but measured accordingly.
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Removing Chinese tariffs benefits America more than it benefits China. It's not any more a concession to China than Europe "agreeing" to buy more Russian gas.

I can see how the telephone call with Biden is gong to go. "Do you recognise Taiwan, including its airspace, as an integral part of China? Yes? Well then don't go."

I wonder what Taiwanese public opinion is on this. If the Pelosi visit happens, they are about to be dragged into a full scale war for American domestic politics. Taiwanese aren't third worlders like Ukrainians and Taiwan is a decent country to live in.

I think the most likely outcome is that Taiwan rescinds the invitation. Americans can pretend that they didn't back down and Taiwan doesn't have to go to war.
 
LawLeadsToPeace

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
This has to be the stupidest way to start a World War ever.
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I see it as an attempt by Pelosi to at least try to drag the Republicans down with her into this fiasco by showing that they are all talk but no walk. The GOP is doing everything they can to get the Democrats to screw up and cause a huge economic and political crisis, and I guarantee you that the Democrats finally realized that. If Pelosi is successful, she might be able to cancel the trip and claim that such a cancellation is due to the “lack of support from home” and s**t on the GOP for “betraying” her and Taiwan.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Abominable said:
I think the most likely outcome is that Taiwan rescinds the invitation.
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This one, I think has almost no chance. Taiwanese politicians (not regular people) are some of the most maniacal, least level-headed people I've ever seen. At every public speech, they need to wave their arms around and shout like they're doing stand-up comedy at a party for kids with hearing aids. These are the people talking about defeating China by targetting the 3 Gorges Dam like some mentally challenged kid saying he can beat up a bear by kicking it in the balls.
 
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