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Phead128

Captain
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Moderator - World Affairs
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It's all Kabuki theatre. For domestic audience purposes, Biden cannot appear to be defer to China all the time. So if it removes China Tariffs, it has to do something else to "Appear" tough on China, even if it's a symbolic visit by someone else. I'm betting Biden will privately assure Xi Jinping during their Thursday call of US position on Taiwan has not changed, and China's reaction to Pelosi-visit will be unprecedented, but measured accordingly.
 

Biscuits

Major
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It's all Kabuki theatre. For domestic audience purposes, Biden cannot appear to be defer to China all the time. So if it removes China Tariffs, it has to do something else to "Appear" tough on China, even if it's a symbolic visit by someone else. I'm betting Biden will privately assure Xi Jinping during their Thursday call of US position on Taiwan has not changed, and China's reaction to Pelosi-visit will be unprecedented, but measured accordingly.
Unless there are some groundbreaking concessions he can make below the table, it would still be completely unacceptable.

It's like saying the Allies should have done nothing if Hitler just sent a few troops into Poland, as long as he phones to Stalin and assures him his position on Poland has not changed. Clearly his position did change, why else would he send armed forces there?
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
It keeps going up! We are so f**ed in UK/EU. On the BBC comment sections the British are laughing at EU for having poor energy security with zero self awareness.

Time to start preparing for the winter. I'm stocking up on LFP batteries. If it gets really bad I guess I will have to think about getting the hell out of here.
I am in the same situation. Basically I am from Bulgaria, but I have been living in Sweden for ten years.

Bulgaria was one of the first countries to stop receiving Russian gas because the Canadian-American puppet who was installed as Prime Minister of Bulgaria six months ago has an absolutely Russophobic policy and despite the fact that 80% of the Bulgarian population is on Russia's side. This harmful government for Bulgaria is already history, but the damage has already been done.

My parents live in a town in Bulgaria, but we have a country house in the countryside which we visit only in the summer. This summer my father has bought a lot of firewood, because it is very likely that my parents will return to the country house, where heating is possible.

Apologies for the lyrical digression.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
If the PLA can force the plane to leave or divert without firing first, then the USN will not engage even in international airspace is my assertion.

If the PLA can devise a plan to do that, then it would be a win for China. If not, I believe China will back down, it's trap as you pointed out and I think the CPC is wise enough to swallow this dead rat and the public would understand.

The only plan would be some very dangerous stunt flying a la Wang Wei.
It would be up to the US whether they want to play aerial ballet with a high profile politician on board.

In the end, if she lands safely, and the US sells this as a political win, that is good for them. I think the CPC leadership will sleep soundly as they continue to build more carriers, cruisers, submarines, and nukes.

PLAAF can just fly into Taiwan with Pelosi without firing unless fired on. From that point on all PLAAF and PLANAF will just fly over Taiwan instead of around it.

I agree. If she lands safely, then there will be no more median line in the future. Most patrols will probably overfly the island fully armed.
 

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Unless there are some groundbreaking concessions he can make below the table, it would still be completely unacceptable.

It's like saying the Allies should have done nothing if Hitler just sent a few troops into Poland, as long as he phones to Stalin and assures him his position on Poland has not changed. Clearly his position did change, why else would he send armed forces there?

Not to mention. China doesn’t trust the US. GlobalTimes basically said that Biden is lying and high level promises are untrustworthy. Whatever Biden offers cannot be taken seriously or reliable.

The “concession” that the US must be strong in exchange for tariffs is merely a lie. When he privately says they follow the policy and then publicly says they will defend Taiwan not once, not twice, but three times.

Meanwhile, the Whitehouse Admin actions shows they don’t care about the one China policy either. Then you know something is up and they have an agenda to push.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Unless there are some groundbreaking concessions he can make below the table, it would still be completely unacceptable.

It's like saying the Allies should have done nothing if Hitler just sent a few troops into Poland, as long as he phones to Stalin and assures him his position on Poland has not changed. Clearly his position did change, why else would he send armed forces there?
The pretext is they need fighter jets to protect Pelosi's flight and also aircraft carrier groups to protect the fighter jets, in effect normalizing and setting the clear precedent for US to send in military whenever it wants... thats the most generous intrepretation of it.... if China doesnt put a stop to this, it wont be long before the US jets start crossing the median line between the straits and then into mainland airspace, this is the boiling frog approach... does China shoot down US jet if it just barely inches across the line? etc the US will keep pushing as long as they see there are no consequences

If it was purely symbolic there would be no need for military escort, there is nothing symbolic about sending in carrier groups unless US agrees that some DF-41 parked in cuba is also only just merely symbolic
 
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