Miscellaneous News

Biscuits said:

I can't agree with the talk about nuclear war, that benefits no one.

Even if we assume a scenario, all along, China was spending at 3.5% gdp and had put the hidden budget into nuclear defense, kinetic mid course interceptor works perfectly and there's thousands in tunnel networks secretly built across the mainland. And now, China invokes "all warfare is based on deception" and revealed talks about nukes only being used for second strike was a bluff meant to enhance a first strike. The rocket force hits the US mainland with 1000 thermonuclear warheads, and then intercept every sporadic American return strike.

So after that, what will happen? The fallout from the nuclear strike will devastate global climate. Even if China was unscathed by second strikes, China's population will starve due to lack of global harvest. But not as badly as people in the third world would starve.

Any nuclear war even ones that end in complete "victory" will lead to all progress made by China to get wiped out and possibly even the end of human civilization.

Nuclear war can only be played as a dead man's hand, as die together option to deny the fascists from claiming global hegemony if the workers' conventional defense would ever fail. Death is preferable over nazi rule and imperialism. This has always been China's only stance towards nuclear use.

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The concept of a nuclear winter is a discredited Cold War myth. Thousands of nuclear weapons were tested during the cold war and we're fine.

Americans have killed 30 million people since WW2, it's unlikely any changes to the climate will lead to a death toll anywhere close to that.

Temstar said:

It's always been like that

"China is bluffing"
-Douglas MacArthur 1950

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An extremely worrying Western behavior is they think they have infinite resolve but the other side has none. It was a problem in 1950 and it is an even bigger problem now. They also believe any compromise is a show of weakness which makes de-escalation extremely hard. I think there is a good chance we will see re-unification before 2026 with this logic. Biden admin is insane itself, The next one will likely be even more insane. Most people don't get how xenophobic and power-trippy conservatives in Anglosphere have grown. And Taiwan is like Ukraine of 2019-2021. They keep escalating all the problematic policies while dismissing China. They wouldn't allow this trip if they weren't salami slicing towards independence.

What I would do if I was the CPC? I would think about what I am trying to achieve, which is stopping the salami slicing. To do that you need to stop foreign encouragement and make this behavior undesirable for Taiwanese domestic politics.

1- Consider this a partial recognition by the USA and downgrade US relations. This would signal China is not intending to continue any relationship that is not based on one-China framework.

2- Armed overflight of Taiwan. This signals China is not shy about a military conflict. As importantly, not answering this would likely make Tsai less popular. Taiwanese politics became more US-like recently. The pro-independence side has a fetish for being tough. Of course it may scare the public into supporting the DPP too but I think the first outcome is more likely. If the first outcome happens, Taiwanese politicians will likely be less into deriving votes from independist behavior.

Abominable said:

Removing Chinese tariffs benefits America more than it benefits China. It's not any more a concession to China than Europe "agreeing" to buy more Russian gas.

I can see how the telephone call with Biden is gong to go. "Do you recognise Taiwan, including its airspace, as an integral part of China? Yes? Well then don't go."

I wonder what Taiwanese public opinion is on this. If the Pelosi visit happens, they are about to be dragged into a full scale war for American domestic politics. Taiwanese aren't third worlders like Ukrainians and Taiwan is a decent country to live in.

I think the most likely outcome is that Taiwan rescinds the invitation. Americans can pretend that they didn't back down and Taiwan doesn't have to go to war.

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I sort of more or less expressed the same sentiment that this stunt is all about trying to pressure Xi, stunt his potential 3rd term as President which means in my opinion that he's seen as a very effective bulwark and leader for China and it's goals trying to fulfill the Chinese dream. If they manage to dent Xi's political standing as a result of this Pelosi visit, the knives-will be out for Xi within the CPC hierarchy because there's still rivalry and faction trying to gain the upper hand even if they all agree that U.S. is their prime rival/threat.

And this is where I really sour on the Democratic process and political system because rather than recognizing a clear danger in front of these western Democratic politicians, they would rather prefer to test and find out if the lava is indeed hot and wether it can melt their hands with a burning sulfur. The same thing can be said to that President vegetable of Taiwan. She wouldn't back down or disinvite Pelosi because for political reasons and credibility with her own party, the people crazy enough to think that America and the rest of the gang will fight to the death with China to protect them from reunification with the mainland. And even the most fantastical, Tsai probably sees herself as some heroic figure trying to resist the Red Scare from Commies.

She has seen the Zelensky effect and how that comedian has been hoisted by Western countries as some sort of heroic figure and wartime leader. After all this lady, ain't married, doesn't have children of her own, except cats. So she has nothing to lose, if her gamble wins, Taiwan becomes independent and her name will be forever cemented in the history books as the lesbian mother she/her/me/we of Taiwan. But we all know this is rather insane, not to mention highly fantastical. China will have her under arrest, placed under death penalty for causing the deaths of her fellow Chinese citizens all for her selfish desire to separate Taiwan from China.

BoraTas said:

An extremely worrying Western behavior is they think they have infinite resolve but the other side has none. It was a problem in 1950 and it is an even bigger problem now. They also believe any compromise is a show of weakness which makes de-escalation extremely hard. I think there is a good chance we will see re-unification before 2026 with this logic. Biden admin is insane itself, The next one will likely be even more insane. Most people don't get how xenophobic and power-trippy conservatives in Anglosphere have grown. And Taiwan is like Ukraine of 2019-2021. They keep escalating all the problematic policies while dismissing China. They wouldn't allow this trip if they weren't salami slicing towards independence.

What I would do if I was the CPC? I would think about what I am trying to achieve, which is stopping the salami slicing. To do that you need to stop foreign encouragement and make this behavior undesirable for Taiwanese domestic politics.

1- Consider this a partial recognition by the USA and downgrade US relations. This would signal China is not intending to continue any relationship that is not based on one-China framework.

2- Armed overflight of Taiwan. This signals China is not shy about a military conflict. As importantly, not answering this would likely make Tsai less popular. Taiwanese politics became more US-like recently. The pro-independence side has a fetish for being tough. Of course it may scare the public into supporting the DPP too but I think the first outcome is more likely. If the first outcome happens, Taiwanese politicians will likely be less into deriving votes from independist behavior.

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I don't think that would be an appropriate response to an American violation of Chinese airspace. If any country flew into American airspace after being warned not to, what do you think the response would be? Americans shoot down planes that don't follow orders in international airspace.

Abominable said:

I don't think that would be an appropriate response to an American violation of Chinese airspace. If any country flew into American airspace after being warned not to, what do you think the response would be? Americans shoot down planes that don't follow orders in international airspace.

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Heck US shot down a plane full of Iranians on a passenger commerical flight that was still in Iranian airspace because it got too close to an American aircraft carrier group.... its the law of the jungle in real life

BoraTas said:

An extremely worrying Western behavior is they think they have infinite resolve but the other side has none. It was a problem in 1950 and it is an even bigger problem now. They also believe any compromise is a show of weakness which makes de-escalation extremely hard. I think there is a good chance we will see re-unification before 2026 with this logic. Biden admin is insane itself, The next one will likely be even more insane. Most people don't get how xenophobic and power-trippy conservatives in Anglosphere have grown. And Taiwan is like Ukraine of 2019-2021. They keep escalating all the problematic policies while dismissing China. They wouldn't allow this trip if they weren't salami slicing towards independence.

What I would do if I was the CPC? I would think about what I am trying to achieve, which is stopping the salami slicing. To do that you need to stop foreign encouragement and make this behavior undesirable for Taiwanese domestic politics.

1- Consider this a partial recognition by the USA and downgrade US relations. This would signal China is not intending to continue any relationship that is not based on one-China framework.

2- Armed overflight of Taiwan. This signals China is not shy about a military conflict. As importantly, not answering this would likely make Tsai less popular. Taiwanese politics became more US-like recently. The pro-independence side has a fetish for being tough. Of course it may scare the public into supporting the DPP too but I think the first outcome is more likely. If the first outcome happens, Taiwanese politicians will likely be less into deriving votes from independist behavior.

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A little bird told me that armed overflight might not be sufficient response, but we’ll see…

Why doesn't China just assassinate Tsai and be done with it?

Abominable said:

I don't think that would be an appropriate response to an American violation of Chinese airspace. If any country flew into American airspace after being warned not to, what do you think the response would be? Americans shoot down planes that don't follow orders in international airspace.

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China would definitely shoot down any US plane that entered non-Taiwanese Chinese airspace. It did that in past. But one-China is a pretty weird framework with no counterparts in history. Thus this analogy doesn't really apply, especially when there are other options of escalations available. We will see what's going to happen together.

@ember : Why doesn't China just assassinate Tsai and be done with it?

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It would just create a martyr

ember said:

Why doesn't China just assassinate Tsai and be done with it?

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What would killing a pointless politician change? Zelensky aren’t dead either because it doesn’t change anything whatever he or her is alive or not

ember said:

Why doesn't China just assassinate Tsai and be done with it?

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Maybe the Chinese armed drone that flew full circle around Tiawan yesterday didnt find a chance to match MQ-9's Soleimani airstrike.