I think the French Army will go to the Ukraine's Belarus borders so that the Ukrainian Army stationed there can be freed up to be deployed towards the Russian front.
In such case, there should be minimal to zero contact between Russian and French forces
Wasn't the rumors that the French Army will go to Odessa? I think the Russians want to capture Odessa before agreeing to a ceasefire.
It doesn’t really matter where the French troops go, what matters is how they go there.
If the French sneak in, the Russians will probably not make a huge deal of it and just bomb them extra hard.
If the French go in officially and declare exactly where they are going, then it’s game on. The Russians would be forced to either call Macron’s bluff and bomb the French openly and knowingly and risk triggering Article 5, or not bomb them and allow the French to set an unacceptable precedent where NATO troops can go into Ukraine and create safe zones where the Russians fear to bomb, never mind tread.
I think this latter is a red line for Russia, because as soon as that happens, NATO troops will pop up all over Ukraine and basically freeze the conflict and set the new boarders. Just as it looks like Ukrainian resistance is finally crumbling and the Russians are about to make significant gains.
I don’t think Russia is in any mood for half measures or a compromised victory after all the blood and treasure it has already spent to get this far in Ukraine. China will also be just fine with Russia continuing to focus western attention in Europe and bleeding NATO of arms and money. This is why I think China will support Russia in targeting French troops if they go into Ukraine in whatever guise or capacity. Especially if the Russians learnt their lesson and consulted with China first before making a big move.
Also, it’s worth nothing that it’s not just Russia and America that have big elections this year. If Russia can show the Americans up as unreliable security guarantors, it may sway the election in a renegade province that is central to China’s interests.
If Russia has China’s support, it has to be stupid to not bomb the living daylights out of the French as soon as they can after they entry Ukraine.