Miscellaneous News

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
View attachment 119721

Welp, it is an abusive relationship...



If you put on the thinking cap, the catalyst for the whole mess is the Saudi-Iranian truth brokered by China earlier this year. The Chinese leadership are literally playing Go here -- the placing of a single strategic piece has made the Chinese position "alive" once again. Think about the relative cost the US has to spend due to that single move -- additional concessions to placate Saudi Arabia/UAE, military aid to Israel to combat the latest offensive, etc. Versus what it cost China -- an expensive dinner gala in Beijing. All that money and resource that could otherwise be used to contain China and stir up shit in East Asia must now be directed not only to Europe, but the Middle East.

Israel failed to see this coming. A huge coordinated attack from a tiny blockaded territory they spend a sizeable amount of their state's resources on surveilling... "All knowing MOSSAD" meme is dead so is "all competent IDF". Saudi-Israeli normalization prospects will likely die too unless they manage to handle this without killing a lot of civilians (very unlikely).

So Israel will be less sure of itself going forward. If the USA doesn't back it significantly more strongly, it will open prospects for Chinese influence on Israel. BTW India-Greece corridor is already dead too. These all mean a lot of billions to spend for the USA.

The US is a country with the goal of global domination. China can and should exploit that.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Ukraine and Afghanistan war has shown that in modern warfare, defense is stronger than offense. Ragtag fighters with ManPADS and Anti-Tank launchers can do a lot of damage in urban environments. Now add to that cheap drones. Israel will be severely tested by these new realities of Warfare where their supposed superiority of Tanks, Planes and Air Defense will not be as effective as before.

Moreover, Muslims in the Middle East are getting richer, more sophisticated, more educated and gaining advanced arms technology. Modern Turkey and Iran are quite powerful with large armies with their own production of drones, tanks and other arms. Even the likes of Saudi Arabia is getting more sophisticated.

The more powerful muslims in Middle East get, the more precarious Israel's future will be. These countries can funnel plenty of weapons into Palestine and create life extremely hard for Israel. And their main backer the US and Europe are also weakening and getting distracted by China. So, they will have less and less influence to protect Israel in the future.

Middle East is not out of the limelight just yet. Its going to flare up again
correction. The more powerful Mideast The more precarious Europe future. These Arabs/Iranian/Turks or even Indians have no interest of migrating to Israel. They just use Israel to extract concession from West and they know how to squeeze Europe. Can Europe trade with Asia/ Africa without Mideast? All those Europe Architecture and engineering firms will be working for Gulf Arabs and this impact the smaller one who are subcontractors. bankrupt societies cannot compete with societies that have wealth accumulation.
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A yard full of excavators from bankruptcies​

As of: July 20, 2023 10:37 a.m
High energy prices, bureaucracy and a shortage of skilled workers are causing problems for many companies. Auction houses are also noticing this: there are currently a particularly large number of companies coming to Auctioneer Philippi in Moschheim that are giving up.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel failed to see this coming. A huge coordinated attack from a tiny blockaded territory they spend a sizeable amount of their state's resources on surveilling... "All knowing MOSSAD" meme is dead so is "all competent IDF". Saudi-Israeli normalization prospects will likely die too unless they manage to handle this without killing a lot of civilians (very unlikely).

So Israel will be less sure of itself going forward. If the USA doesn't back it significantly more strongly, it will open prospects for Chinese influence on Israel. BTW India-Greece corridor is already dead too. These all mean a lot of billions to spend for the USA.

The US is a country with the goal of global domination. China can and should exploit that.

So strange, hearing people claiming Israel going hard on Gaza or even permanently occupying Gaza is somehow going leave Israel better off in the future.

What happened last time they tried to go into Lebanon?
People learned nothing, and they'll learn nothing the next time this happens.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
So strange, hearing people claiming Israel going hard on Gaza or even permanently occupying Gaza is somehow going leave Israel better off in the future.

What happened last time they tried to go into Lebanon?
People learned nothing, and they'll learn nothing the next time this happens.
Depends on How they go in. If they pretty much kill everyone or force them to flee, then I guess problem will be solved for them. Their only fear was Western reaction. But considering the charged atmosphere in the west, calls on Social media to raze Gaza to the ground is quite common. I am guessing there won't be much reaction if they completely depopulate Gaza.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Depends on How they go in. If they pretty much kill everyone or force them to flee, then I guess problem will be solved for them
Yeah, of course, that kills the Arab-Israel rapprochement if Israel decides to permanently take care of 2 million Gazans. (And fail in the process). The rulers might turn a blind eye, but the average person on street are sympathetic to Palestinians.

That's what Hamas wants, and they might get it.
 

BoraTas

Captain
Registered Member
And I found out this guy got it again. I would hire this guy as a consultant if I had a business in China. He correctly guessed that Armenia would get jinxed, the UK and German economies would go bad (he guessed them exactly as they happened), French influence in West Africa would start collapsing, Russia being just slightly stronger than a large European country

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Has the last stone been laid on the road to a totalitarian regime in Israel? How do Israelis go to the polls to vote for an undemocratic government? Israel loses support from the US, so maybe it's all over with the state of Israel?

If I were a right wing zionist, I would have done the same. Here is why:

1: In terms of foreign policy, Israel has missed the last golden opportunity to resolve the Palestinian issue and more importantly reconcilate with Arab states.

Gulf Arabs on the other hand have historically reconciliated with Iran, and Iran has made its way to Iraq and Syria thanks to George W Bush. And there is no evidence to suggest that Israel and Russia have a particular relationship, nor the relationship with Israel is more important than with Arabs and Iranian for the Chinese.

Israel is therefore facing an increasingly harsh and hostile external environment in the long run.

2: In terms of military capabilities, since the war in Lebanon, it has been proven that Hezbollah +Iran have surpassed Israel. The Israelis army after the cold war has fallen to a degree where handling Hamas is even a hard task. And this is just the beginning. All those countries, Arab included, are still developing their military and tons of potentials are there.

Meanwhile, the US is in a steady decline as a world superpower. The US can’t provide the same amount of support and aids in time if Israel is in a war, compared with the cold war era.

3: The worst nightmare of course doesn’t come from the outside but the inside. The birth rate of the “orthodox” is way too high. They are the real trojan and virus and cancer. What’s more, the expansion of Israel doesn’t come for free as the Arabs are also incorporated.

Meanwhile, the birth rate of reformists and conservatives and the leftists can’t match up.

Again, the internal environment is also harsh like the external environment because at the end of the day, it is about the number of people you have.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
And I found out this guy got it again. I would hire this guy as a consultant if I had a business in China. He correctly guessed that Armenia would get jinxed, the UK and German economies would go bad (he guessed them exactly as they happened), French influence in West Africa would start collapsing, Russia being just slightly stronger than a large European country

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Has the last stone been laid on the road to a totalitarian regime in Israel? How do Israelis go to the polls to vote for an undemocratic government? Israel loses support from the US, so maybe it's all over with the state of Israel?

If I were a right wing zionist, I would have done the same. Here is why:

1: In terms of foreign policy, Israel has missed the last golden opportunity to resolve the Palestinian issue and more importantly reconcilate with Arab states.

Gulf Arabs on the other hand have historically reconciliated with Iran, and Iran has made its way to Iraq and Syria thanks to George W Bush. And there is no evidence to suggest that Israel and Russia have a particular relationship, nor the relationship with Israel is more important than with Arabs and Iranian for the Chinese.

Israel is therefore facing an increasingly harsh and hostile external environment in the long run.

2: In terms of military capabilities, since the war in Lebanon, it has been proven that Hezbollah +Iran have surpassed Israel. The Israelis army after the cold war has fallen to a degree where handling Hamas is even a hard task. And this is just the beginning. All those countries, Arab included, are still developing their military and tons of potentials are there.

Meanwhile, the US is in a steady decline as a world superpower. The US can’t provide the same amount of support and aids in time if Israel is in a war, compared with the cold war era.

3: The worst nightmare of course doesn’t come from the outside but the inside. The birth rate of the “orthodox” is way too high. They are the real trojan and virus and cancer. What’s more, the expansion of Israel doesn’t come for free as the Arabs are also incorporated.

Meanwhile, the birth rate of reformists and conservatives and the leftists can’t match up.

Again, the internal environment is also harsh like the external environment because at the end of the day, it is about the number of people you have.

I think @tphuang is also named Feng. Is this the same person?
 
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