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TK3600

Major
Registered Member
And I found out this guy got it again. I would hire this guy as a consultant if I had a business in China. He correctly guessed that Armenia would get jinxed, the UK and German economies would go bad (he guessed them exactly as they happened), French influence in West Africa would start collapsing, Russia being just slightly stronger than a large European country
That is such a bad take that should disqualify him on the spot. His ideas are too wishful. That comes from me a person who is optimistic about it.

Lets start with Russia, by what means does just slightly stronger than a european country comes from? Is it military? Of course not. Russian military is comparable to EU. Right now it is holding up against Ukraine, 2nd biggest European military with backing of US + EU most of NATO, and that is just the standing army. It did not call in the reservists. No single European country can pull that off. Not even close. There is also thousands of nuclear weapons with world class delivery. Enough to make any superpower shit their pants, and have no illusions of survive MAD. Again, no other European country come close.

Is it economy? True, in PPP terms it is just below Germany. But the economic resiliency and security makes them more valuable than paper suggests. Japan is a country slightly stronger than a European country, no way Japan can survive the level of sanction imposed, nor would Germany the biggest EU economy on paper. Russia has barely taken a scratch.

He then use the Lebanon example to justify Iran + Lebanon can take down Israel with American support. By his logic 1960 China + North Korea is stronger than US and can roll over US homeland anytime. Yes they repelled Israeli aggression on their home land, but invading Israel's core territory is entirely different. As we see despite Russia being much stronger than Ukraine, being on the offense still gave them big headache. Iran would need nuclear weapons to stand a chance ATTACKING Israel and win today.

He also concluded Israel is so weak they have hard time vs Hamas. Well true they were caught with pants down, but that is 1 day with element of surprise. No way we can jump to conclusions before Israel even begin to retaliate.

Militarily this attack is destined to fail. But they still stand a chance diplomatically.
Palestinians need to drag on for several years weakening Israel economically. Only then would Israel feel compelled to negotiate. We are talking about 5 to 10 years of intense combat. A conventional military victory for Palestinians is almost impossible. Their goal should be weakening Israel so much that Iran + Hezbolah ACTUALLY has a chance invading Israel and win.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
That is such a bad take that should disqualify him on the spot. His ideas are too wishful. That comes from me a person who is optimistic about it.

Lets start with Russia, by what means does just slightly stronger than a european country comes from? Is it military? Of course not. Russian military is comparable to EU. Right now it is holding up against Ukraine, 2nd biggest European military with backing of US + EU most of NATO, and that is just the standing army. It did not call in the reservists. No single European country can pull that off. Not even close. There is also thousands of nuclear weapons with world class delivery. Enough to make any superpower shit their pants, and have no illusions of survive MAD. Again, no other European country come close.

Is it economy? True, in PPP terms it is just below Germany. But the economic resiliency and security makes them more valuable than paper suggests. Japan is a country slightly stronger than a European country, no way Japan can survive the level of sanction imposed, nor would Germany the biggest EU economy on paper. Russia has barely taken a scratch.

He then use the Lebanon example to justify Iran + Lebanon can take down Israel with American support. By his logic 1960 China + North Korea is stronger than US and can roll over US homeland anytime. Yes they repelled Israeli aggression on their home land, but invading Israel's core territory is entirely different. As we see despite Russia being much stronger than Ukraine, being on the offense still gave them big headache. Iran would need nuclear weapons to stand a chance ATTACKING Israel and win today.

He also concluded Israel is so weak they have hard time vs Hamas. Well true they were caught with pants down, but that is 1 day with element of surprise. No way we can jump to conclusions before Israel even begin to retaliate.

Militarily this attack is destined to fail. But they still stand a chance diplomatically.
Palestinians need to drag on for several years weakening Israel economically. Only then would Israel feel compelled to negotiate. We are talking about 5 to 10 years of intense combat. A conventional military victory for Palestinians is almost impossible. Their goal should be weakening Israel so much that Iran + Hezbolah ACTUALLY has a chance invading Israel and win.
An OIL crisis will force Israel to the negotiating table, this is a proxy war against the US, I don't know who plan it but it ain't a coincidence that the Russian had stop exporting diesel and planning a major cut in oil production. After a major defeat in Ukraine what will happen to US prestige? Who can the Israeli look too to salvage this situation especially now the Arab and the whole Muslim world is wide awake and is empowered.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
An OIL crisis will force Israel to the negotiating table, this is a proxy war against the US, I don't know who plan it but it ain't a coincidence that the Russian had stop exporting diesel and planning a major cut in oil production. After a major defeat in Ukraine what will happen to US prestige? Who can the Israeli look too to salvage this situation especially now the Arab and the whole Muslim world is wide awake and is empowered.
Are you suggesting Israel will run out of fuel? US is an oil producer and surely they can supply Israel by sea no?
 
D

Deleted member 24525

Guest
An OIL crisis will force Israel to the negotiating table, this is a proxy war against the US, I don't know who plan it but it ain't a coincidence that the Russian had stop exporting diesel and planning a major cut in oil production. After a major defeat in Ukraine what will happen to US prestige? Who can the Israeli look too to salvage this situation especially now the Arab and the whole Muslim world is wide awake and is empowered.
Because that worked last time?
The Arab states already tried that in 1973. It didn't work. What makes you think it would be more effective this time?
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Are you suggesting Israel will run out of fuel? US is an oil producer and surely they can supply Israel by sea no?
No the US just exhausted its oil reserved and there is tightness in the world market, if the Israeli do escalate then the gulf state had the excuse to cut production even more. So for me this is a proxy war against the US, cause whatever they do, they're in a messy situation, with glaring economic depression staring them at their face.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Because that worked last time?
The Arab states already tried that in 1973. It didn't work. What makes you think it would be more effective this time?
Because the US is staring a massive economic depression coming , they just can't rely on transitory inflation to stave off the inevitable. Energy is a major factor in economic activity and beside there are other power blocs that the oil producing countries can sell to. We lived in a multipolar world and this the first of many that will chip away the collective west dominance.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Given time and effort, synthetic meat might replace pork. Factory farming could then be downscaled, and remaining pigs that are farmed would be farmed more humanely, for the luxury meat market. That is, if we the common people can accept synthetic meats. I expect that it would still be difficult to market that in the current society.

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Half of all the beef consumed in the United States is eaten by just 12 percent of the population, a new study has found. This impacts not only the health of these individuals but also the health of our planet.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Americans ate 30 billion pounds of beef as a nation in the year 2021, equating to nearly 60 pounds per person. However,
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has been associated with an increased risk of colon cancer, heart disease and strokes.

In a recent study, published in the journal
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on August 30, researchers from Tulane University in Louisiana analyzed data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which tracked the meals of more than 10,000 adults over a 24-hour period. From this data, half of all the beef consumed was accounted for by just 12 percent of the participants.

Those 12 percent were most likely to be men or people between the ages of 50 and 65.
 

luminary

Senior Member
Registered Member
Hindu nationalists demonstrate their power to completely halt unfavorable proposals in California, impressive how much they've infiltrated the political system there:

Newsom vetoes a
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in California​

Opponents contended that the legislation will stigmatize Hindus and people from South Asia, where caste is historically most closely associated. Representatives for the Hindu American Foundation had previously promised to challenge it in court. The veto is a victory for national Hindu groups such as the Hindu American Foundation and the Coalition of Hindus of North America, which fiercely lobbied lawmakers to oppose the bill.
A pair of Republican state senators, Brian Jones and Shannon Grove, wrote a letter to Newsom on Tuesday asking him to veto the bill. The senators claimed that the bill would “not only target and racially profile South Asian Californians, but will put other California residents and businesses at risk and jeopardize our state’s innovative edge.”
The bill also received pushback from two of Wahab’s progressive colleagues in the Assembly, and was amended to make the word “caste” less prominent in the law.





I've learned that if you're making $137,100 or less a year, you count as low income in Santa Clara County, CA, and qualify for financial assistance for living expenses. Wtf.
 

Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
— / BREAKING: Egyptian police officer shoots and kills two Israeli tourists in Alexandria

@Middle_East_Spectator

— / BREAKING: Six Israelis killed in Sinai in another attack carried out by an Egyptian police officer - Reports

@Middle_East_Spectator

— So two seperate events: One attack in Alexandria and one in Sinai

— Still confusion about this. Might be one incident or two seperate ones.
 

ficker22

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think this was all planned by Netanyahu, he needed retaliation to justify a larger conflict with Palestinians for his own domestic politics.


Way more action than Armenia vs Azerbaijan 2022 for sure.

— / BREAKING: Egyptian police officer shoots and kills two Israeli tourists in Alexandria

@Middle_East_Spectator

— / BREAKING: Six Israelis killed in Sinai in another attack carried out by an Egyptian police officer - Reports

@Middle_East_Spectator

— So two seperate events: One attack in Alexandria and one in Sinai

— Still confusion about this. Might be one incident or two seperate ones.
Should be 2 Sinai and Alexandria a quite far apart
 
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