That is such a bad take that should disqualify him on the spot. His ideas are too wishful. That comes from me a person who is optimistic about it.And I found out this guy got it again. I would hire this guy as a consultant if I had a business in China. He correctly guessed that Armenia would get jinxed, the UK and German economies would go bad (he guessed them exactly as they happened), French influence in West Africa would start collapsing, Russia being just slightly stronger than a large European country
Lets start with Russia, by what means does just slightly stronger than a european country comes from? Is it military? Of course not. Russian military is comparable to EU. Right now it is holding up against Ukraine, 2nd biggest European military with backing of US + EU most of NATO, and that is just the standing army. It did not call in the reservists. No single European country can pull that off. Not even close. There is also thousands of nuclear weapons with world class delivery. Enough to make any superpower shit their pants, and have no illusions of survive MAD. Again, no other European country come close.
Is it economy? True, in PPP terms it is just below Germany. But the economic resiliency and security makes them more valuable than paper suggests. Japan is a country slightly stronger than a European country, no way Japan can survive the level of sanction imposed, nor would Germany the biggest EU economy on paper. Russia has barely taken a scratch.
He then use the Lebanon example to justify Iran + Lebanon can take down Israel with American support. By his logic 1960 China + North Korea is stronger than US and can roll over US homeland anytime. Yes they repelled Israeli aggression on their home land, but invading Israel's core territory is entirely different. As we see despite Russia being much stronger than Ukraine, being on the offense still gave them big headache. Iran would need nuclear weapons to stand a chance ATTACKING Israel and win today.
He also concluded Israel is so weak they have hard time vs Hamas. Well true they were caught with pants down, but that is 1 day with element of surprise. No way we can jump to conclusions before Israel even begin to retaliate.
Militarily this attack is destined to fail. But they still stand a chance diplomatically.
Palestinians need to drag on for several years weakening Israel economically. Only then would Israel feel compelled to negotiate. We are talking about 5 to 10 years of intense combat. A conventional military victory for Palestinians is almost impossible. Their goal should be weakening Israel so much that Iran + Hezbolah ACTUALLY has a chance invading Israel and win.
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