Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
Should be interesting once progozhin is dealt with how people in position of power will shuffle around. Seems like Wagner has no political and popular support or did I miss something.
Looks and smells like a 2016 turkey coup attempt small army group hoped to get popular support but they didn't and afterwards erdogan could clean ship.
Looks and smells like a 2016 turkey coup attempt small army group hoped to get popular support but they didn't and afterwards erdogan could clean ship.
(Cross-posted from the Wagner Group Rebellion Thread.)
I could think of a couple things that Beijing could (or more like, should) do in the face of present ongoing development in Russia, assuming Putin did not request for any significant help from China early on.
A - Based on the current situation:
#1 - Maintain communication channels open between Zhongnanhai and the Kremlin, plus between the August 1st Building and the Russian Defense Ministry Building;
#2 - Offers a neutral ground for both Moscow and Wagner to conduct negotiations in order to settle their disputes, with Beijing acting as the middleman;
#3 - Making sure that Chinese citizens currently in Russia be on constant alert for any happenings through the PRC Embassy in Moscow, and be prepared to conduct evacuation missions of Chinese citizens from Russia;
#4 - Upgrade the Combat Readiness Condition (CRC, 战备等级)* of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), People's Armed Police (PAP) and the Militia to Level 2 (Training) for the Northern and Western Theater Commands, and Level 3 (Mobilization) for other Theater Commands; and
#5 - Request a meeting at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to discuss on the present situation in Russia.
B - When the prospects of large-scale disorder or civil war becomes increasingly likely/worsening in Russia:
#1 - Launch evacuation missions to ferry Chinese citizens out of Russia ASAP, especially those living in and around affected areas of tension or conflict (thank goodness China can mass-produce the Y-20Bs now).
#2 - Initiate direct channels of communication with the other heads of states, heads of governments and supranational organizations, especially with P5 members (Washington DC, Moscow, Paris and London) and others (New Delhi, Brasilia, Tokyo, Jakarta, Ankara, Brussels and Addis Ababa) to permit swift communication and coordination in case of worsening crisis in Russia;
#3 - Upgrade the CRC of the PLA, PAP and the Militia to Level 1 (Combat Ready) for the Northern and Western Theater Commands, and Level 2 (Training) for other Theater Commands;
#4 - Orders the PLA, PAP and Militia who are stationed along and around the China-Russia and China-Mongolia border regions to go on full alert for any unusual or hostile behaviors by the armed forces and armed elements of Russia;
#5 - Set up plans for the entire country to enter wartime mode across most economic, industrial and societal sectors of China;
#6 - Enact contingency plans for establishing and maintaining the stability and security of Siberia and the Russian Far East through the means of political, military, or a combination of both;
#7 - Enact contingency plans to secure the strategic assets of the Russian armed forces (strategic bombers, SSNs, SSBNs, mobile TELs and missile silos) and the Russia nuclear arsenal;
#8 - Continue offering a neutral ground for both Moscow and Wagner to conduct negotiations in order to settle their disputes, with Beijing acting as the middleman; and
#9 - Continue request urgent meetings at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to discuss on the evolving situation in Russia, formulate resolutions, and/or setting up UN-directed peacekeeping efforts that can enter Russia to conduct peacekeeping missions.
C- When sh1t REALLY hits the fan, i.e. full-scale, all-out civil war breaks out between rivalling factions of the armed forces and armed elements of Russia:
#1 - Upgrade the CRC of the PLA, PAP and the Militia to Level 1 (Combat Ready) for all Theater Commands;
#2 - Launch the plans that would transform the entire country into entering wartime mode across most economic, industrial and societal sectors of China;
#3 - Maintain direct channels of communication with the other heads of states, heads of governments and supranational organizations, especially with P5 members (Washington DC, Moscow, Paris and London) and others (New Delhi, Brasilia, Tokyo, Jakarta, Ankara, Brussels and Addis Ababa) in preparation for any worst-case scenario in Russia;
#4 - Continue offering a neutral ground for both Moscow and Wagner to conduct negotiations in order to settle their disputes, with Beijing acting as the middleman;
#5 - If the situation permits and UN support can be expected, provide support for UN-directed efforts to enter Russia to conduct peacekeeping missions;
#6 - If the situation permits and UN support cannot be expected, launch contingency plans to send PLA expeditionary forces into the regions of Siberia and Russian Far East in order to conduct peacekeeping missions, plus establishing & maintaining the stability and security of the region, preferably with the support of at least some armed elements and local governance of Russia in the region;
#7 - If the situation across Russia becomes gravely threatening towards the national security and national interests of China and the Chinese people, launch contingency plans to militarily invade and occupy the regions of Siberia and Russian Far East in order to prevent spillovers across the China-Russia and China-Mongolia borders;
#8 - Be prepared to provide humanitarian aid and support for waves of Russian war refugees crossing the China-Russia and China-Mongolia borders;
#9 - Launch amnesty programs targeting Russian military personnel in order to persuade them towards defecting by voluntarily flying their warplanes, driving their tanks or sailing their warships to Chinese-controlled air bases, Chinese-controlled border checkpoints and Chinese-controlled naval bases for safekeep;
#10 - Launch contingency plans to secure the strategic assets of the Russian armed forces (strategic bombers, SSNs, SSBNs, mobile TELs and missile silos) through the means of: 1. Voluntary handing-over of the assets to the PLA by the armed elements of Russia; 2. Infiltration of Chinese special forces to gain control of the assets; 3. Launching attacks against any armed elements that refuses to do so in order to gain control of the assets; or 4. Disable/destroy those assets if attempts at gaining physical control of the assets is deemed not viable;
#11 - Launch contingency plans to secure the Russian nuclear arsenal in order to prevent nuclear warheads from falling into the hands of extremists and terrorists, either through voluntary means (refer #6) or involuntary means (refer #9); and
#12 - Continue evacuation missions to evacuate any remaining Chinese citizens still in Russia whenever situation permits.
*CRC is the Chinese equivalent of the US DEFCON.
End of my random, incoherent and less-than-knowledgeable ramblings.
I could think of a couple things that Beijing could (or more like, should) do in the face of present ongoing development in Russia, assuming Putin did not request for any significant help from China early on.
A - Based on the current situation:
#1 - Maintain communication channels open between Zhongnanhai and the Kremlin, plus between the August 1st Building and the Russian Defense Ministry Building;
#2 - Offers a neutral ground for both Moscow and Wagner to conduct negotiations in order to settle their disputes, with Beijing acting as the middleman;
#3 - Making sure that Chinese citizens currently in Russia be on constant alert for any happenings through the PRC Embassy in Moscow, and be prepared to conduct evacuation missions of Chinese citizens from Russia;
#4 - Upgrade the Combat Readiness Condition (CRC, 战备等级)* of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), People's Armed Police (PAP) and the Militia to Level 2 (Training) for the Northern and Western Theater Commands, and Level 3 (Mobilization) for other Theater Commands; and
#5 - Request a meeting at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to discuss on the present situation in Russia.
B - When the prospects of large-scale disorder or civil war becomes increasingly likely/worsening in Russia:
#1 - Launch evacuation missions to ferry Chinese citizens out of Russia ASAP, especially those living in and around affected areas of tension or conflict (thank goodness China can mass-produce the Y-20Bs now).
#2 - Initiate direct channels of communication with the other heads of states, heads of governments and supranational organizations, especially with P5 members (Washington DC, Moscow, Paris and London) and others (New Delhi, Brasilia, Tokyo, Jakarta, Ankara, Brussels and Addis Ababa) to permit swift communication and coordination in case of worsening crisis in Russia;
#3 - Upgrade the CRC of the PLA, PAP and the Militia to Level 1 (Combat Ready) for the Northern and Western Theater Commands, and Level 2 (Training) for other Theater Commands;
#4 - Orders the PLA, PAP and Militia who are stationed along and around the China-Russia and China-Mongolia border regions to go on full alert for any unusual or hostile behaviors by the armed forces and armed elements of Russia;
#5 - Set up plans for the entire country to enter wartime mode across most economic, industrial and societal sectors of China;
#6 - Enact contingency plans for establishing and maintaining the stability and security of Siberia and the Russian Far East through the means of political, military, or a combination of both;
#7 - Enact contingency plans to secure the strategic assets of the Russian armed forces (strategic bombers, SSNs, SSBNs, mobile TELs and missile silos) and the Russia nuclear arsenal;
#8 - Continue offering a neutral ground for both Moscow and Wagner to conduct negotiations in order to settle their disputes, with Beijing acting as the middleman; and
#9 - Continue request urgent meetings at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to discuss on the evolving situation in Russia, formulate resolutions, and/or setting up UN-directed peacekeeping efforts that can enter Russia to conduct peacekeeping missions.
C- When sh1t REALLY hits the fan, i.e. full-scale, all-out civil war breaks out between rivalling factions of the armed forces and armed elements of Russia:
#1 - Upgrade the CRC of the PLA, PAP and the Militia to Level 1 (Combat Ready) for all Theater Commands;
#2 - Launch the plans that would transform the entire country into entering wartime mode across most economic, industrial and societal sectors of China;
#3 - Maintain direct channels of communication with the other heads of states, heads of governments and supranational organizations, especially with P5 members (Washington DC, Moscow, Paris and London) and others (New Delhi, Brasilia, Tokyo, Jakarta, Ankara, Brussels and Addis Ababa) in preparation for any worst-case scenario in Russia;
#4 - Continue offering a neutral ground for both Moscow and Wagner to conduct negotiations in order to settle their disputes, with Beijing acting as the middleman;
#5 - If the situation permits and UN support can be expected, provide support for UN-directed efforts to enter Russia to conduct peacekeeping missions;
#6 - If the situation permits and UN support cannot be expected, launch contingency plans to send PLA expeditionary forces into the regions of Siberia and Russian Far East in order to conduct peacekeeping missions, plus establishing & maintaining the stability and security of the region, preferably with the support of at least some armed elements and local governance of Russia in the region;
#7 - If the situation across Russia becomes gravely threatening towards the national security and national interests of China and the Chinese people, launch contingency plans to militarily invade and occupy the regions of Siberia and Russian Far East in order to prevent spillovers across the China-Russia and China-Mongolia borders;
#8 - Be prepared to provide humanitarian aid and support for waves of Russian war refugees crossing the China-Russia and China-Mongolia borders;
#9 - Launch amnesty programs targeting Russian military personnel in order to persuade them towards defecting by voluntarily flying their warplanes, driving their tanks or sailing their warships to Chinese-controlled air bases, Chinese-controlled border checkpoints and Chinese-controlled naval bases for safekeep;
#10 - Launch contingency plans to secure the strategic assets of the Russian armed forces (strategic bombers, SSNs, SSBNs, mobile TELs and missile silos) through the means of: 1. Voluntary handing-over of the assets to the PLA by the armed elements of Russia; 2. Infiltration of Chinese special forces to gain control of the assets; 3. Launching attacks against any armed elements that refuses to do so in order to gain control of the assets; or 4. Disable/destroy those assets if attempts at gaining physical control of the assets is deemed not viable;
#11 - Launch contingency plans to secure the Russian nuclear arsenal in order to prevent nuclear warheads from falling into the hands of extremists and terrorists, either through voluntary means (refer #6) or involuntary means (refer #9); and
#12 - Continue evacuation missions to evacuate any remaining Chinese citizens still in Russia whenever situation permits.
*CRC is the Chinese equivalent of the US DEFCON.
End of my random, incoherent and less-than-knowledgeable ramblings.
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Comrade Ma speaks on the current situation in Russia.
China needs to starting tossing her weight around. China's official policy is to just do business and not meddle with countries internal affairs, not even with allies that they have great influence with. That sounds great, until you realize that it results in shitshows like north korea, Russia and Myanmar. Just look at what America and Russia does, if China had their foreign policy they would be playing kingmaker in Russia for years and would already have deployed "peacekeeping troops" in Moscow. Just look at the power Russia used to have in central asia, the government there directly answered to the Kremlin and Russia deployed security troops if the situatiuon ever got too unstable.
Who knows, if China had greater influence over Russia, the entire Ukraine war might have never happened, I doubt that China wanted the war after having invested billions into Ukraine only for the war to wipe it all away. I doubt that China wants NK to be in the current state as one of the worst nations on earth that doesn't even listen to beijing half the time. I doubt that China wants all this failed states on her border.
What's probably going to happen is Beijing is going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to settle, before continuing to trade and continue relationships with the survivors, only directly stepping in if the situation gets dire(directly threatens China). They wouldn't do much to actually prevent or help the situation even though everyone can see that Russia is heading into a massive breakup into a warring states period, or just stagnate into a NK/somalia tier failed state. This is a absolute utter failure of foreign policy on China's part, they have so much power and influence but all their allies all turn into failed states, who will want to be allies in China in the future?
What's next? Iran goes full retard, nukes itself, China once again does nothing to prevent it and just continues to buy oil from the handful of survivors?
Who knows, if China had greater influence over Russia, the entire Ukraine war might have never happened, I doubt that China wanted the war after having invested billions into Ukraine only for the war to wipe it all away. I doubt that China wants NK to be in the current state as one of the worst nations on earth that doesn't even listen to beijing half the time. I doubt that China wants all this failed states on her border.
What's probably going to happen is Beijing is going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the dust to settle, before continuing to trade and continue relationships with the survivors, only directly stepping in if the situation gets dire(directly threatens China). They wouldn't do much to actually prevent or help the situation even though everyone can see that Russia is heading into a massive breakup into a warring states period, or just stagnate into a NK/somalia tier failed state. This is a absolute utter failure of foreign policy on China's part, they have so much power and influence but all their allies all turn into failed states, who will want to be allies in China in the future?
What's next? Iran goes full retard, nukes itself, China once again does nothing to prevent it and just continues to buy oil from the handful of survivors?
Yes. Russian ultranationalists are full of neonazis, monarchists, religious fanatics and other nasty people. Predictable and somewhat moderate Putin is far better for China.
Bro what's Prigozhin Wagner situation? If they still hold up and not moving then it's the end for him and his associates. His emotional tantrums is affecting his judgment from hero of Bakhmut to traitor of Mother Russia.
China clearly needs to do more then that. It needs to do nation building so that this countries don't go full retard with corruption, idiot leadership and follow a coherent foreign policy instead of everyone going at it by themselves. China is a superpower now, they need to act like one. The soviet union didn't sit on the sidelines, they had fingers and influence in every 2nd world nation, in their governments and population, all for a greater goal. They didn't just sit back and let them do whatever they wanted.
It's hopeless, China can't even influence NK to not be such an embarrassment and topple the Kim dynasty, for whatever reason China just has no influence outside of trade and economical and even then they don't seem to be using them properly.