Miscellaneous News

jwnz said:

About the latest wargame report, 3 of the 4 conditions for success are borderline unrealistic, rendering the conclusion very doubtful IMO.

The 4 conditions are:
Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
I wouldn't bet on it and don't underestimate the potential sabotaging from within Taiwan.

There is no "Ukraine model" for Taiwan. (As the US must fight directly.)
Fair enough as they must.

The US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
I would imagine once the war has started, it wouldn't take much effort for China to destroy the bases via missiles.

The US must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.
This is all about weaponry ranges and the amount of assets available. I think this is 50/50 at best for the US.

Click to expand...

You forgot the biggest wish dreaming of this "wargame"

The 40 or 50 submarines would organize in squadrons of four boats apiece and deploy to U.S. bases in Guam, at Wake Island and in Yokosuka, Japan. One squadron should be on station in the narrow Taiwan Strait when the first Chinese rockets fall and the invasion fleet sets sail.

Click to expand...

There are 2 stupid assumptions here:
1) The US submarines can go and stay at the Taiwan strait without being detected and then swiftly obliterated by Chinese ASW

2) It assumes that the "invasion fleet sets sail" when "the first Chinese rockets fall". They think that China is stupid enough to start the invasion when the US submarines are laying right on front of them and Taiwanese defences haven't been degraded by weeks of preceding bombardment lol

This "wargame" is only made to give some propaganda boost to the Taiwanese and American idiots to think that they can resist so that they go all out in a potential war Ukraine-style.

Reddit is already full of these hopium posts now ("we can still win guys, so easy!")

Overbom said:

You forgot the biggest wish dreaming of this "wargame"

There are 2 stupid assumptions here:
1) The US submarines can go and stay at the Taiwan strait without being detected and then swiftly obliterated by Chinese ASW

2) It assumes that the "invasion fleet sets sail" when "the first Chinese rockets fall". They think that China is stupid enough to start the invasion when the US submarines are laying right on front of them and Taiwanese defences haven't been degraded by weeks of preceding bombardment lol

This "wargame" is only made to give some propaganda boost to the Taiwanese and American idiots to think that they can resist so that they go all out in a potential war Ukraine-style.

Reddit is already full of these hopium posts now ("we can still win guys, so easy!")

Click to expand...

I must admit that I didn't bother to read the assumptions after reading the success conditions.

Overbom said:

You forgot the biggest wish dreaming of this "wargame"

There are 2 stupid assumptions here:
1) The US submarines can go and stay at the Taiwan strait without being detected and then swiftly obliterated by Chinese ASW

2) It assumes that the "invasion fleet sets sail" when "the first Chinese rockets fall". They think that China is stupid enough to start the invasion when the US submarines are laying right on front of them and Taiwanese defences haven't been degraded by weeks of preceding bombardment lol

This "wargame" is only made to give some propaganda boost to the Taiwanese and American idiots to think that they can resist so that they go all out in a potential war Ukraine-style.

Reddit is already full of these hopium posts now ("we can still win guys, so easy!")

Click to expand...

Also the invasion force might only land months after infrastructure crippling bombartment and naval blockade or only after tw govt declared surrender after being starved of everything after months of naval blockade

jwnz said:

About the latest wargame report, 3 of the 4 conditions for success are borderline unrealistic, rendering the conclusion very doubtful IMO.

The 4 conditions are:
Taiwanese forces must hold the line.
I wouldn't bet on it and don't underestimate the potential sabotaging from within Taiwan.

Click to expand...

Yes. A big proportion of the Taiwanese population are sympathetic to their true motherland. And unlike Ukraine, there are no ultra-nationalist fascists in Taiwan yet. These crazed killers are the only types, capable of suppressing the general population and fighting a sustained war.

jwnz said:

There is no "Ukraine model" for Taiwan. (As the US must fight directly.)
Fair enough as they must.

Click to expand...

The bigger question is. Will the US fight China directly for Taiwan? Judging by the recent US pattern of recommending Taiwan to adopt asymmetric warfare. And the 'vaccuuming' of TSMC technology and staff to the US. I looks quite likely that the US is leaving Taiwan out to dry when Armed Reunification really happens.

jwnz said:

The US must be able to use its bases in Japan for combat operations.
I would imagine once the war has started, it wouldn't take much effort for China to destroy the bases via missiles.

Click to expand...

Yes. This is almost a certainty. No Japanese bases = no US presence within the 1st Island Chain. Missile exchanges between the US and Chinese bases will hurt both sides tremendously. But I think that the US and Japan will run out of their long range ammo quicker. And China can rebuild their bases and replace losses much quicker. The US will have to ship their replacements in. Which leaves a long logistics trail that can be distrupted.

jwnz said:

The US must be able to strike the Chinese fleet rapidly and en masse from outside the Chinese defensive zone.
This is all about weaponry ranges and the amount of assets available. I think this is 50/50 at best for the US.

Click to expand...

Yes. It'll be 50/50 for the US to strike China from outside of their defensive zone. The US will have to rely mainly on Tomahawks and JASSMs. But China can also shoot back with CJ-10s, DF-21Ds, DF-26s, DF-17s. So it's not like the US is gonna get away scott free. After those US aircrafts have unloaded their standoff weapons, they might not have a base or aircraft carrier to return to. Rebuilding them is not gonna be quick matter for the US and Japan. While every Chinese base that has been leveled can be rebuilt much quicker.This is a wartime China that they are gonna be dealing with.

America thought that sanctions, propaganda, Western arms, and money could bring Russia to it's knees. It didn't happen. America thought that China will succumb to Covid-19 hell. It didn't happen. So now, America thinks that it can shoot at China and not get shot back? Can anyone still believe their propaganda anymore?

Here comes one of the most healing thing a Chinese person can experience: seeing Brits rage impotently:

The guy who was laying the smack down in Manchester is also in China, why not rename one of the Type 45 to HMS Amethyst, put Sunak on it and come get them?

Overbom said:

You forgot the biggest wish dreaming of this "wargame"

There are 2 stupid assumptions here:
1) The US submarines can go and stay at the Taiwan strait without being detected and then swiftly obliterated by Chinese ASW

2) It assumes that the "invasion fleet sets sail" when "the first Chinese rockets fall". They think that China is stupid enough to start the invasion when the US submarines are laying right on front of them and Taiwanese defences haven't been degraded by weeks of preceding bombardment lol

This "wargame" is only made to give some propaganda boost to the Taiwanese and American idiots to think that they can resist so that they go all out in a potential war Ukraine-style.

Reddit is already full of these hopium posts now ("we can still win guys, so easy!")

Click to expand...

Bro they didn't factor in the after effect, these people never serve in the military nor have experience a hard life, a simple question? who supply them their basic needs, with war trade will stop, inflation will hit the roof, the American are accustomed to instant gratification, let's see IF they're able to stomach a full spectrum shortages. And what more IF the casualties keep pilling in especially IF a carrier or two had been sunk plus the Chinese can sustain a prolonged war with Russia supplying all her needs can the US afford it? The US is not equip to fight a peer nation what more a combined strength of Russian and Chinese.

Sardaukar20 said:

Yes. A big proportion of the Taiwanese population are sympathetic to their true motherland. And unlike Ukraine, there are no ultra-nationalist fascists in Taiwan yet. These crazed killers are the only types, capable of suppressing the general population and fighting a sustained war.


The bigger question is. Will the US fight China directly for Taiwan? Judging by the recent US pattern of recommending Taiwan to adopt asymmetric warfare. And the 'vaccuuming' of TSMC technology and staff to the US. I looks quite likely that the US is leaving Taiwan out to dry when Armed Reunification really happens.


Yes. This is almost a certainty. No Japanese bases = no US presence within the 1st Island Chain. Missile exchanges between the US and Chinese bases will hurt both sides tremendously. But I think that the US and Japan will run out of their long range ammo quicker. And China can rebuild their bases and replace losses much quicker. The US will have to ship their replacements in. Which leaves a long logistics trail that can be distrupted.


Yes. It'll be 50/50 for the US to strike China from outside of their defensive zone. The US will have to rely mainly on Tomahawks and JASSMs. But China can also shoot back with CJ-10s, DF-21Ds, DF-26s, DF-17s. So it's not like the US is gonna get away scott free. After those US aircrafts have unloaded their standoff weapons, they might not have a base or aircraft carrier to return to. Rebuilding them is not gonna be quick matter for the US and Japan. While every Chinese base that has been leveled can be rebuilt much quicker.This is a wartime China that they are gonna be dealing with.

America thought that sanctions, propaganda, Western arms, and money could bring Russia to it's knees. It didn't happen. America thought that China will succumb to Covid-19 hell. It didn't happen. So now, America thinks that it can shoot at China and not get shot back? Can anyone still believe their propaganda anymore?

Click to expand...

Bro perfect analysis, bravo!!! can I add one more, IF the US want a Hybrid War with China, they will be disappointed because whatever happen China is their neighbor, knowing the Chinese they will never forget nor forgive and they know the Chinese value their sovereignty, will fight tooth and nail even if they lost the war, future generation will keep the fire burning.

ansy1968 said:

Bro they didn't factor in the after effect, these people never serve in the military nor have experience a hard life, a simple question? who supply them their basic needs, with war trade will stop, inflation will hit the roof, the American are accustomed to instant gratification, let's see IF they're able to stomach a full spectrum shortages. And what more IF the casualties keep pilling in especially IF a carrier or two had been sunk plus the Chinese can sustain a prolonged war with Russia supplying all her needs can the US afford it? The US is not equip to fight a peer nation what more a combined strength of Russian and Chinese.

Click to expand...

If even China doesn't have a numerically large navy, it still has the most powerful land army by quite a bit. And ability to plug all its gaps using sheer numbers through mobilizing NK.

China is poised to land a crushing blow using quality over quantity on American naval and air invasion forces, but even if that devolves into a stalemate, the Ground forces can be used to turn the tide of said stalemate.

If SK is involved in invading Taiwan, invade SK. Without SK, US loses their only presence within China's 1st island line.

But even if SK swears neutrality, China can still apply its army elsewhere while waiting for the air/sea stalemate to resolve. With US fully abandoning any international law through its brazen attack on another UNSC permanent member, China will be justified in sending enough divisions to Ukraine as to encircle and annihilate all the natoites there.

And then, the baltic countries lie wide open. The decision to recreate the Russian Empire or not can be left up to Mr Putin.

NATO Article 5 means that whoever messes with NATO will have to fight America. But if America begins by invading you, then what Article 5 really means is that if you are already fighting America which is 90% of NATO's military power, why would you not use the opportunity to pick off the weak NATO client states? An attack on one is considered an attack on all, conversely also means being attacked by one means you might as well counterattack all of them, if you have the ground forces to spare.

For fvcks's sake, how is PRC China not even included in the list?! Are you fvcking kidding me, WEF?! Has none of your staff ever stepped foot on Chinese soil?!

Nicely done...

Counter Insurgency Air Strike on India by Myanmar​

By -
January 12, 2023


Counter-Insurgency Cross Border Air Strike on India by Myanmar

Note: This article gives a true picture of events regarding counter insurgency cross border air strike by Myanmar Air Force on India.
On the morning of 10th Jan 2022, reports on social media started surfacing regarding a cross-border airstrike inside Indian territory conducted by the Myanmar Air force. As more information and videos of the strike became public, the whole story became clear. Myanmar had conducted a coordinated counter-insurgency airstrike operation near and within Indian territory. Reports from locals suggest that Myanmar bombed the Chin National Army (CNA) rebel group in camp Victoria which sits on the border between India and Myanmar. The Myanmar Air Force further dropped 2 bombs inside Indian territory as well as targeting rebel forces taking shelter under Indian territorial cover. Overall, the strike consisted of 3 bomber fighters and 2 helicopters, whereas according to rebel sources, they lost 7 fighters and suffered 20 injured.

This is no isolated incident as over the last few years Myanmar has conducted several operations both near and within Indian territory against several different antigovernment rebel groups. Each time Indian authorities/military swept the incident under the rug to maintain diplomatic relations while continuing to turn a blind eye against the open presence and smuggling of rebels within Indian territory. Historically, the Indian-Myanmar border always has been open and easy for insurgents to cross seeking shelter within India. These crossings also facilitate the smuggling of illicit goods such as weapons and drugs. The Myanmar leadership being aware of this has grown increasingly frustrated and behind closed doors repeatedly demanded the suspension of aid to insurgents by India, otherwise more strikes might follow.

As of now, the Indian military has stated that an investigation is ongoing which suggests the usual plan of sweeping the incident under the rug. Already some Indian websites have started reporting the bombing incident inside Indian territory being false. It is clear that the Indian state will downplay the situation and continue to harbor/support insurgent elements. According to the Myanmar government media, India is attempting to expand its influence within Myanmar by supporting rebel factions just as it did with Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka.

This shows a growing trend of anti-Indian sentiment within all nations bordering India, against Pakistan India continues to support internationally recognized terrorist groups such as TTP/BLA, against China Indian soldiers repeatedly clash with Chinese border guards in places like LOC and Arunachal and now against Myanmar India hosts rebel groups. Such actions do not go unnoticed and influence the future of South Asian / East Asian power dynamics.

As for the aftermath of the bombing incident, a rebel commander reported that after the air raid dozens of rebel members fled deeper into India, while Indian doctors from Mizoram crossed over into Myanmar to help treat the injured who could not be moved. On the next day, protests were organized against the earlier aerial strikes causing a shutdown across Chin state in Myanmar.