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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I've asked in a separate thread, but what would constitute "fail", "serious trouble"? Feb 24th border restored, or NATO entrance into war, Moscow under threat? In first scenario, I can see China amplifying dual-use aid, intelligence sharing, ammunition. For the latter scenario, why wouldn't Russia start lobbing nukes, and China overtly giving weapons to Russia, since the world is ending anyways?
I assume fail is NATO entering the conflict, dealing catastrophic conventional damage to Russian forces, making deep inroads into Russian territory or/and Russian society becoming extremely unstable due to the effects of the war (economical)

Any of those cases would trigger a significant response by China to stabilise Russia. Said significant response could involve China throwing tons of money to Russia, start serious armament aid, using coercive measures to force a diplomatic solution etc
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I've asked in a separate thread, but what would constitute "fail", "serious trouble"? Feb 24th border restored, or NATO entrance into war, Moscow under threat? In first scenario, I can see China amplifying dual-use aid, intelligence sharing, ammunition. For the latter scenario, why wouldn't Russia start lobbing nukes, and China overtly giving weapons to Russia, since the world is ending anyways?
Situation 1: Russia keeps fighting and wearing down NATO/Ukraine in a limited war like what we see now. Russia will not stop until at least large chunks of Ukraine go to Russia and the Ukrainian government is replaced with a pacifist one. I'd say they shouldn't stop until Ukraine is entirely Russian. In this conflict, Russia and NATO/Ukraine will be trying to wear each other down for years. China should help Russia by providing resources to keep the Russian economy and industry in shape to keep grinding. In the meantime, as these sides wear down, China should build itself up so that by the time the conflict is over and both sides exhausted, China is fresh and ready to steamroll America in the superpower competition. In this case, China should keep itself out of direct weapons transfers and thus out of the mud pit and Russia seems to like that just fine because it doesn't want to be seen buying Chinese arms anyway.

Situation 2: WWIII, in this case, the fight in Ukraine escalates into one where NATO is directly involved and the use of nukes is on the daily possibility. This is probably triggered by NATO trying to invade Russia. Then Russia probably needs no help from China; it and NATO/US will basically neutralize each other in nuclear warfare. China's job is to defend against the possibility of any FU nukes coming from the US as it doesn't want to leave China unscathed while the entire West is on fire.

In either case, China's support to Russia is unlikely to be direct arms transfers. It's going to be economic/industrial assistance in situation 1 and I don't know what in situation 2.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Situation 1: Russia keeps fighting and wearing down NATO/Ukraine in a limited war like what we see now. Russia will not stop until at least large chunks of Ukraine go to Russia and the Ukrainian government is replaced with a pacifist one. I'd say they shouldn't stop until Ukraine is entirely Russian. In this conflict, Russia and NATO/Ukraine will be trying to wear each other down for years. China should help Russia but providing resources to keep the Russian economy and industry in shape to keep grinding. In the meantime, as these sides wear down, China should build itself up so that by the time the conflict is over and both sides exhausted, China is fresh and ready to steamroll America in the superpower competition. In this case, China should keep itself out of direct weapons transfers and thus out of the mud pit and Russia seems to like that just fine because it doesn't want to be seen buying Chinese arms anyway.

Situation 2: WWIII, in this case, the fight in Ukraine escalates into one where NATO is directly involved and the use of nukes is on the daily possibility. This is probably triggered by NATO trying to invade Russia. Then Russia probably needs no help from China; it and NATO/US will basically neutralize each other in nuclear warfare. China's job is to defend against the possibility of any FU nukes coming from the US as it doesn't want to leave China unscathed while the entire West is on fire.

In either case, China's support to Russia is unlikely to be direct arms transfers. It's going to be economic/industrial assistance in situation 1 and I don't know what in situation 2.
There might be another situation were NATO gets directly involved but with explicit statement only on Ukrainian territory (what it was before say 2014 Crimea loss).

With that said, we do know the west is liers, but even then it could be possible they would want to try and destroy Russia's conventional forces only in Ukraine (using only conventional forces as well).

And there's also the possiblity, they only have some countries attack, such as Poland (still kinda far fetched, but not impossible) while maybe also having some 'new' mercenary corps (with full fledged army equipment).

In general, I think we might be looking at your Situation 1, but that's not to say there are 0% chance for other situations/scenarios.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
There might be another situation were NATO gets directly involved but with explicit statement only on Ukrainian territory (what it was before say 2014 Crimea loss).

With that said, we do know the west is liers, but even then it could be possible they would want to try and destroy Russia's conventional forces only in Ukraine (using only conventional forces as well).

And there's also the possiblity, they only have some countries attack, such as Poland (still kinda far fetched, but not impossible) while maybe also having some 'new' mercenary corps (with full fledged army equipment).

In general, I think we might be looking at your Situation 1, but that's not to say there are 0% chance for other situations/scenarios.
That's still situation 1. What separates the two is whether there is some existential threat to Russia causing the war to go nuclear. Without that, Russia will continue to grind with Ukraine and NATO and China should support Russia's ability to manufacture and put more weapons onto the battlefield to wear them down until they no longer have the resources to try to pose a collective Western challenge to China.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
In my opinion, the NATO scenario is to destroy conventional Russian forces in Ukraine, including Crimea, which will cause massive discontent in Russia and the overthrow of Putin. I think NATO already has a scenario for a Russian Maidan after the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine and installing a puppet after Putin.

On that note, a few days ago I came across this thread on Twitter from a Chinese perspective.

You should read the whole thread:

 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Just to repeat one more time. In 2023, the US offers nothing except confrontation.
View attachment 104107
Right? If you are a small or middle power, you would play both sides for maximum benefit. Just one-sided smearing about "bad influence", cutting off ties with 20% of humanity, #1 GDP PPP in the world, in exchange for what? What does US offer to compensate for these loss? US offers nothing, all they can do is fearmongering.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
In my opinion, the NATO scenario is to destroy conventional Russian forces in Ukraine, including Crimea, which will cause massive discontent in Russia and the overthrow of Putin. I think NATO already has a scenario for a Russian Maidan after the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine and installing a puppet after Putin.

On that note, a few days ago I came across this thread on Twitter from a Chinese perspective.

You should read the whole thread:

The should hate us. Russia can't take on NATO and the US alone. Because of China's support of Russia, Ukraine will end up gone or in pieces like they deserve.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
In my opinion, the NATO scenario is to destroy conventional Russian forces in Ukraine, including Crimea, which will cause massive discontent in Russia and the overthrow of Putin. I think NATO already has a scenario for a Russian Maidan after the Russian army is defeated in Ukraine and installing a puppet after Putin.

On that note, a few days ago I came across this thread on Twitter from a Chinese perspective.

You should read the whole thread:

Looks like that twitter post got deleted? If that is truly an Official Ukrainian Gov't account, then China must have protested :)

China protested:

Ukraine deleted tweet:
Code:
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Ukraine gave up very quickly lol.
 
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