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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
In December 2021 Nord Stream 1 was up, as was the Yamal pipeline, and Ukraine transit had not been cut in half.
It is still way too early to celebrate anything. The weather is mild in Europe right now but winter is not over yet.
It can get really cold in January and February.

If Russia wanted Europe to freeze they would have stopped gas exports. The only reason Europe can even have this respite is because the Russians kept pumping gas all this time and in fact they are still selling it right now.

Next year is going to be a lot worse, since there will be little Russian gas transit if current trends continue.
 
baykalov

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
So the EU price cap on natural gas is a success?
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1606285847648555009
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It's too early to tell. Europe filled the gas storages with expensive liquefied natural gas, towards the end of January when they are empty, the prices will go up again.

BoraTas said:
No. It is just there is no panic anymore. Europe avoided shortages for certain. European storages are more filled than they were during the December of 2021. The economic slowdown and warm winter are also lowering the demand. Russia got outplayed again.
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But at what cost?!

Bloomberg: Europe’s $1 Trillion Energy Bill Only Marks Start of the Crisis​

  • High prices could last years and aid is becoming unaffordable
  • Relief on global gas markets isn’t expected until 2026

Europe got hit by roughly $1 trillion from surging energy costs in the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the deepest crisis in decades is only getting started.

After this winter, the region will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices.

While governments were able to help companies and consumers absorb much of the blow with more than $700 billion in aid, according to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, a state of emergency could last for years. With interest rates rising and economies likely already in recession, the support that cushioned the blow for millions of households and businesses is looking increasingly unaffordable.

“Once you add everything up — bailouts, subsidies — it is a ridiculously large amount of money,” said Martin Devenish, a director at consultancy S-RM. “It’s going to be a lot harder for governments to manage this crisis next year.”

Government fiscal capacity is already stretched. About half of European Union member states have debt exceeding the bloc’s limit of 60% of gross domestic product. Germany to issue record federal debt to fund energy crisis aid.

The roughly $1 trillion, calculated by Bloomberg from market data, is a broad tally of more expensive energy for consumers and companies — some but not all of which was offset with aid packages. Bruegel has a similar estimate looking at demand and an increase in prices, which was published in a report this month by the International Monetary Fund.
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baykalov

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation

However, future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today.

As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.

After the dissolution of the Russian Federation, the United States should pursue a set of achievable goals that narrowly focus on the American national interest. Specifically, the US will need to:

Continued in the link:
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Now that was some delusional crap if I ever read it.

The reasons for Russia falling back into an authoritarian stance after the 1990s were two. 1. The massive socioeconomic chaos after the US sponsored privatizations, which caused social conditions so severe they were opposed by the Russian Duma, and then US puppet Yeltsin was forced to attack the parliament building and impose martial law to ram the changes through thus setting the precedent. 2. The US' continuous erosion of Russia's security environment, by annexing former republics of the Soviet Union into NATO, and sponsoring terrorism inside Russia including in Chechnya.

The economic conditions in Russia were also made much, much, worse because the US insisted on putting the whole burden of paying the Soviet Union's debts on the Russian government. Compare this with Poland which got its debts forgiven.
 
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zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
kokole said:
Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation

However, future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today.

As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.

After the dissolution of the Russian Federation, the United States should pursue a set of achievable goals that narrowly focus on the American national interest. Specifically, the US will need to:

Continued in the link:
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I think it's too early to discuss this.
This reminds me of several neighboring countries of China. Their netizens always openly imagine the future of China's collapse, so that they can seize the opportunity to occupy a large area of territory.
Who wrote this article? Seems like an American "researcher".
That's why many people laugh at them: they can't think of anything else except the experience of winning the Cold War. Half of their victory must be attributed to Gorbachev's perfect cooperation，but it's better not to expect history to repeat itself indiscriminately.

Add: I read the details in the article again. This is really a bad article. This is not a reasonable assumption, but a delusional plan to dispose of a defeated Russia.

One more thing to add: the vision of this article makes me feel familiar, haha, I remember, it's the plot of COD4：Modern Warfare.
 
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
You should not laugh at what this think tank is writing. I posted a link on the War on Ukraine thread with a PDF from another think tank which also made similar claims. Except they go into way more detail i.e. describing how to actually achieve that. And they also described how the US fomented this conflict. These guys really want to break up Russia, using Ukraine as a pretext.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
kokole said:
Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation







However, future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today.







As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.







After the dissolution of the Russian Federation, the United States should pursue a set of achievable goals that narrowly focus on the American national interest. Specifically, the US will need to:







Continued in the link:



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Click to expand...

kokole said:
Preparing for the Final Collapse of the Soviet Union and the Dissolution of the Russian Federation

However, future historians will likely describe Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine as the most consequential moment, if not the final moment, of the Soviet Union’s collapse. When the war in Ukraine will end is unknown, but it will likely mark the dissolution of the Russian Federation (the legal successor of the Soviet Union) as it is known today.

As the final collapse of the Soviet Union plays out and as the Russian Federation faces the possibility of dissolving, policymakers need to start planning for the new geopolitical reality on the Eurasian landmass.

After the dissolution of the Russian Federation, the United States should pursue a set of achievable goals that narrowly focus on the American national interest. Specifically, the US will need to:

Continued in the link:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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How did Mr. Coffey become such an expert on Soviet Union, it's history including that of the Russian Federation when according to the person who wish to be identified as maybe a man or a woman depending on the situation never studied above subject matter with a very interesting but improbable analysis.

Here's Luke's education and training cv: Mr. Coffey received a Master of Science degree in the politics and government of the European Union from the London School of Economics. He holds a BA in political science from the University of Missouri–St. Louis and studied African politics at the University of the Western Cape in South Africa.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
Bellum_Romanum said:
How did Mr. Coffey become such an expert on Soviet Union, it's history including that of the Russian Federation when according to the person who wish to be identified as maybe a man or a woman depending on the situation never studied above subject matter with a very interesting but improbable analysis.

Here's Luke's education and training cv: Mr. Coffey received a Master of Science degree in the politics and government of the European Union from the London School of Economics. He holds a BA in political science from the University of Missouri–St. Louis and studied African politics at the University of the Western Cape in South Africa.
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He is a neocon and a high ranking one to. I think his opinion may be noteworthy. Not because of the article but because it represents the neocon thinking and their recklessness.

This author is an US citizen who was serving as the first non-UK citizen serving within the UK defence ministry. Probably a CIA rat as well. He advised senior British ministers and shaped their policy on NATO, Afghanistan, Middle-East, and China.

Before joining Heritage, Mr. Coffey served at the UK Ministry of Defence as senior special adviser to then-British Defence Secretary Liam Fox. He was the first non-UK citizen appointed to this position by the prime minister to provide advice to senior British ministers. Among his duties was helping shape British defense policy in relation to transatlantic security, NATO, the Middle-East, and Afghanistan.
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Mr. Coffey previously worked in the House of Commons as an adviser on defense and security issues for the Conservative Party. He helped develop and implement policy initiatives on security and defense matters, in particular drafting the defense section of the party’s 2010 election manifesto.
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