Almost zero chance of war because of Pelosi visit. Now is not the time. Neither US and China is ready.Even though I repeated the need for military spending, especially as shown from this ongoing episode, I still maintain that there is a relatively (non-zero) low chance of a war happening before 2024. After 2024 however, I personally see the chance of a war or a military crisis so serious that could lead to it, at >60%.
To sum up, I don't think this Pelosi thing will cause a war
War starts because Taiwan declares independence not because Pelosi or whatever visits.
Last edited: