Please leave "Taiwan Independence" out of this thread! I will only post this one reply on this subject and no more follow ups.
It's irrelevant, and the most things I am hearing from you guys are simply juvenile. You guys model Taiwan as a single person. Taiwan is not a person, it's a society politically organized by a parliamentary democratic system. Perhaps you guys should really treat a parliamentary democratic system objectively and materialistically. The number one driving force and motive of politics in a democratic parliamentary system is to earn votes. Why do you treat this society as if it's run by a unified ego? You should look at the political parties in Taiwan, what they are look after, and most importantly why they sort after what they sort after!
The DPP is the ruling party right now, and it was born largely as a result of people's negative reaction towards the KMT's fascistic militaristic rule in Taiwan. Therefore, DPP's "Taiwan Independence" was NEVER originally an anti-CPC creature, it was an anti-KMT creature. The DPP strives to be everything the KMT is not, many DPP leaders were left-leaning, or even joined communist movements in their early years, against the KMT. As a political party, their real main competitor is the KMT, every anti-CPC action is essential an anti-KMT action in disguise for the DPP.
There is NO reason for them to really set the CPC against them, because that will harm their own superiority against the KMT in Taiwan. They will keep up the superficially anti-CPC stance on the exterior, just to keep the rhetoric consistent. But they are NOT stupid enough to be blind to the OBVIOUS fact that the US ONLY wants them to be expendable acids, a tool to use against PRC. They (DPP leadership and elites) will NOT sacrifice their good peaceful life, their "developed world living standards", and their political triumph over the KMT, in exchange for a real war with PRC, which will turn Taiwan into a wasteland, EVEN IF the PLA loses such war.The is very simple game theory.
Sure, the DPP will have 'nominal independence" afterwards, but it really does not feel much different for the average people. But if they ended up a ruled, bombed-to-smithereens wasteland, with all their wealth effectively gone, do you think the DPP party elites will thing it's worth it? And this is only considering the best case scenario for them: no nuclear war, no actual (even partial) occupation by PLA, AND they somehow win the war. And certainly no Ukrainian-like-idiocy where they think they can get enough war reparation to rebuild from nuclear-armed power, because that's a bullshit point not worth talking about, because the sheer loss of population, lives as well as infrastructure would be detrimental and far beyond any realistic reparation can fix.
This is why there will be no real "Formal Taiwan Independence" as long as the DPP and Taiwan is in healthy economic shape. The US can pretty much give up trying to trick the Taiwanese into being a expendable acid against the PRC. If the US really want to use Taiwan as a tool, they need to obliterate Taiwanese economy, turn them into a cornered, hopeless poor shithole first. And then, the Americans might find enough desperate people and politicians in Taiwan will to risk anything for a "US economic aid" or "formal alliance treaty with the USA" which will alleviate their dire poverty.
However, you will NOT see this happening any time soon in our timeline.
Okey, I will say no more on this topic. Mod, if you don't like this post, please delete it!
It's irrelevant, and the most things I am hearing from you guys are simply juvenile. You guys model Taiwan as a single person. Taiwan is not a person, it's a society politically organized by a parliamentary democratic system. Perhaps you guys should really treat a parliamentary democratic system objectively and materialistically. The number one driving force and motive of politics in a democratic parliamentary system is to earn votes. Why do you treat this society as if it's run by a unified ego? You should look at the political parties in Taiwan, what they are look after, and most importantly why they sort after what they sort after!
The DPP is the ruling party right now, and it was born largely as a result of people's negative reaction towards the KMT's fascistic militaristic rule in Taiwan. Therefore, DPP's "Taiwan Independence" was NEVER originally an anti-CPC creature, it was an anti-KMT creature. The DPP strives to be everything the KMT is not, many DPP leaders were left-leaning, or even joined communist movements in their early years, against the KMT. As a political party, their real main competitor is the KMT, every anti-CPC action is essential an anti-KMT action in disguise for the DPP.
There is NO reason for them to really set the CPC against them, because that will harm their own superiority against the KMT in Taiwan. They will keep up the superficially anti-CPC stance on the exterior, just to keep the rhetoric consistent. But they are NOT stupid enough to be blind to the OBVIOUS fact that the US ONLY wants them to be expendable acids, a tool to use against PRC. They (DPP leadership and elites) will NOT sacrifice their good peaceful life, their "developed world living standards", and their political triumph over the KMT, in exchange for a real war with PRC, which will turn Taiwan into a wasteland, EVEN IF the PLA loses such war.The is very simple game theory.
Sure, the DPP will have 'nominal independence" afterwards, but it really does not feel much different for the average people. But if they ended up a ruled, bombed-to-smithereens wasteland, with all their wealth effectively gone, do you think the DPP party elites will thing it's worth it? And this is only considering the best case scenario for them: no nuclear war, no actual (even partial) occupation by PLA, AND they somehow win the war. And certainly no Ukrainian-like-idiocy where they think they can get enough war reparation to rebuild from nuclear-armed power, because that's a bullshit point not worth talking about, because the sheer loss of population, lives as well as infrastructure would be detrimental and far beyond any realistic reparation can fix.
This is why there will be no real "Formal Taiwan Independence" as long as the DPP and Taiwan is in healthy economic shape. The US can pretty much give up trying to trick the Taiwanese into being a expendable acid against the PRC. If the US really want to use Taiwan as a tool, they need to obliterate Taiwanese economy, turn them into a cornered, hopeless poor shithole first. And then, the Americans might find enough desperate people and politicians in Taiwan will to risk anything for a "US economic aid" or "formal alliance treaty with the USA" which will alleviate their dire poverty.
However, you will NOT see this happening any time soon in our timeline.
Okey, I will say no more on this topic. Mod, if you don't like this post, please delete it!
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