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clockwork

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Naval portion isn't limited at all. PLAN is neither sitting in port doing nothing nor far flung in all parts of the world - again, unlike US and Russia who have global responsibilities (one by virtue of having its hand everywhere, the other by literally being globe spanning domestically with 3 disconnected oceans to manage). PLAN is mostly on local patrol. Distance from Yellow Sea to Taiwan Strait is ~1000 km. You can redeploy a ship at sea from Northern Fleet to Taiwan Strait within 2 days at cruise speed of ~40 kph (20 knots). Let's say a ship is in port. Activating the ship crew takes let's say 2 days to call people up from leave, briefing, and loading ammo. Then 2 days to transit to theater.

Eastern and Southern Fleet doesn't need strategic movement, they are already in theater. Southern Fleet will be hitting first at Taiwan occupied islands in the SCS and sinking Taiwanese naval ships in the southern half of the strait. Eastern Fleet will hit the northern half of the straits.

The ground mobilization absolutely matters too, because they will be the ones to hit Taiwan itself: with SRBMs, cruise missiles and outlying islands with artillery, and by moving SAM trucks into place to intercept Taiwanese aircraft as they take off.
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Well, I wasn't really talking about the 3 fleets/the major surface combatants themselves. How about the sealift capacity? What percentage of the boats the PLA needs to ferry the men, vehicles and materiel across are already in place or very close to it, and where would the rest of those boats be coming from? Don't even a lot of civilian boats and barges need to be involved in that effort?
 
J

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
clockwork said:
What about the amphibious and naval portion? A ridiculous number of boats are needed to ship everything across. I agree the land portion will be significantly faster than the Russian buildup due to a combination of forces being based closer, the country being smaller, and better transport infrastructure. Also the Russians probably weren't trying to go as fast as possible.

IIRC on D-Day they also had to select a very narrow suitable window due to weather, tides and even the phase of the moon or some crap.
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Dude, are you kidding me!? This is 2022. Your idea of war is still stuck in D-day?!?!

The actual "taking of the island" is not as important as the air war to literally obliterate the island, and the naval war to essential blockade the island. You think PLA ground soldiers will just "Zerg Rush" the beach heads like those repetitive US-made games?! Are you kidding!?!

Pull your head out of those games, they are propaganda, they are NOT the same as real warfare.

At least for the D-day, the US and Allies are fighting the 3rd Reich, which controls the entire continental Western Europe. How big is Taiwan compare to continental Europe?

After this war in Ukraine, there will be no illusion of a easy, low damage war amongst the PLA and CPC leadership. PLAAF and PLAN will play a much bigger and more brutal role in this potential unification war, they will obliterate the island's defenses, they will hunt down every stronghold and gatherings of forces on that teeny weeny island, before they will let their brethren the ground forces go in.
 
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clockwork

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
Jingle Bells said:
Dude, are you kidding me!? This is 2022. Your idea of war is still stuck in D-day?!?!
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The point is it would be on a similar scale and difficulty, with many factors involved. Calm yourself with the exclamation marks lmao

Edit to your edit: I'm not sure whether you can read or where you spouted all that from, but we were discussing the length of time needed to build up forces and shipping before an amphibious assault can begin.
 
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Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
4Runner said:

This is a 3-day old video, in which Mearsheimer emphasized to the host that US should have had a laser-like focus on containing China instead of messing with Russia over Ukraine, because China is a peer competitor.

Now you connect this video to the above video in which Mearsheimer was talking with CGTN. And you have to come to terms with Xi's "百年未有之大变局" vision. This is close to be a WTF moment with epic proportion.

I once had a close coworker who was a typical Utah white type. He was a big time fan of Mearsheimer and traveled to attend a few Mearsheimer seminars on his speech circuit. I still cannot get my brain straightened up for Mearsheimer appearing on CGTN. This would be equivalent to China letting Brad Pitt visiting times 10. This would also tell me how pissed Mearsheimer is right now at US MSM and political eco-system.

The world is changing in front of our eyes in ways we could not have imagined just a few years ago ......
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Just because he's very much onboard US taking down China does not mean us Chinese cannot listen to him and appreciate his clarity of vision. You can learn a lot about geopolitics listening to him.
 
J

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
clockwork said:
The point is it would be on a similar scale and difficulty, with many factors involved. Calm yourself with the exclamation marks lmao
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You think it will be PLA ground troops doing the fighting? Are you stuck back in the past when PLAN and PLAAF were irrelevantly small and weak?! Read my last reply in full. I have added a lot more content.
 
J

Jingle Bells

Junior Member
Registered Member
clockwork said:
The point is it would be on a similar scale and difficulty, with many factors involved. Calm yourself with the exclamation marks lmao

Edit to your edit: I'm not sure whether you can read or where you spouted all that from, but we were discussing the length of time needed to build up forces and shipping before an amphibious assault can begin.
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This is not the right post to discuss those. Go to the proper post.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

At least 47 dead in Afghanistan after Pakistan attacks: Officials​

“Forty-one civilians, mainly women and children, were killed and 22 others were wounded in air strikes by Pakistani forces near the Durand Line in Khost province,” Shabir Ahmad Osmani, director of information and culture in Khost, told AFP on Sunday.
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After regime change, the new Pakistani PM is bombing Afghanistan.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
4Runner said:

This is a 3-day old video, in which Mearsheimer emphasized to the host that US should have had a laser-like focus on containing China instead of messing with Russia over Ukraine, because China is a peer competitor.

Now you connect this video to the above video in which Mearsheimer was talking with CGTN. And you have to come to terms with Xi's "百年未有之大变局" vision. This is close to be a WTF moment with epic proportion.

I once had a close coworker who was a typical Utah white type. He was a big time fan of Mearsheimer and traveled to attend a few Mearsheimer seminars on his speech circuit. I still cannot get my brain straightened up for Mearsheimer appearing on CGTN. This would be equivalent to China letting Brad Pitt visiting times 10. This would also tell me how pissed Mearsheimer is right now at US MSM and political eco-system.

The world is changing in front of our eyes in ways we could not have imagined just a few years ago ......
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Make a deal with Russia giving them part of Ukraine in return for support against China. This sort of view is taboo right now in western media, but I am sure many American elite are at least considering this. As the American public become more war weary, you'll start hearing this more and more. Eventually it may even represent mainstream Republican thinking, and we know who's going to win the next US election.

It's why from China's perspective Russia needs to be supported (covertly) in their current war, and once the Ukraine is taken Russia needs to continue to be a threat to Latvia, Poland, and so on. Let Russia be the direct military threat to America and Europe, while China increases its economic and military threat.
 
horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Abominable said:
If Taiwan ever declares independence, you know they and the west will be 100% prepared for an invasion. You should attack your enemy when they least expect it. It would be a casus belli, but attacking straight away would be very risky in my opinion.
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It is going to be a blockade.

But it is not a blockade. The CCP already told us.

They will over fly the island, asserting sovereignty. That realistically is a no-fly zone.

The Chinese Communist Party will dare anyone to break that no fly zone.

Let's not have any illusions here.

The Russians actually wanted to be part of the West.

China? The Chinese, some just don't like those white people.

I mean, once they have control of the air over Taiwan, that means control of the sea lanes to the island is a done deal too. So who is gonna fucking break it? God damn mother fuckers.

If the Americans come to break it, it will turn into a war of air attrition. The odds would be totally against the United States, due to geography.

That is the way this is going to play out.

All this talk about salami slicing by the DDP and American politicans about Taiwan, if China moves, it grabs the salami, takes it away, whacks them across the head with a steel bar. Then the fight will start.

The fight will start, if those salami slicers are willing.

I would think no.

In Asia, the Americans are out gunned and out numbered around Taiwan.
 
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