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horse

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
Forces in Fujian are already prepositioned and forces in Guangdong and Zhejiang are a few days away at the most. I wouldn't be surprised if ammo and nonperishable food is already stockpiled. Wheeled vehicles like logistics trucks, artillery, rockets and SAMs can drive on existing highways at highway speed (~100 km/hr). They can go from Guangdong and Zhejiang to staging areas in Fujian within a day and organize/load pallets of cargo within 2-3 days. People and light cargo can travel on civilian high speed rail specialty cars.

There's a reason why PLA buys much more wheeled versions of armored vehicles like IFV (ZBL-08), artillery (PLL-05, PLL-09) and rocket launchers (WS) than US or Russia which prefer mostly tracked vehicles. Unlike US and Russia where there is a huge need for tracked vehicles (since US is going to fight in 3rd world countries with shit infrastructure and Russia has snow/ice/mud that make wheels useless), China uses wheeled armored vehicles for rapid deployment on domestic highways. Tracked vehicles have a hard time traveling for long distances on highway and usually must be transported by rail, with the limiting step being loading and unloading at rail yards, driving to staging areas, then driving to the battlefield. Wheeled vehicles just drive on highways.

I envision the ground mobilization consisting of 1.) immediately activating garrisons of prepositioned units with tracked vehicles and prepositioned ammo/food 2.) shipping operational personnel for tracked vehicles and infantry by high speed train within hours 3.) wheeled vehicles drive themselves at highway speed within 1 days driving distance (~1000 km) 4.) further tracked vehicles shipped from inland within a few days 5.) followup ammo, food and supplies head for Fujian within 1 week.
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When Covid first broke out in Wuhan, it was simply amazing the mobilization we saw take place.

It was Chairman Mao orchestrating the people's war. The mobilization was that good.

Also, it seemed that the leadership thought this was a biological attack, hence the mobilization. then again, maybe it was just that good, that the country is ready to be mobilized for war at very short notice.

Mass, then attack. China will and can do the massing part faster than imaginable. That is what we learned from the Wuhan outbreak.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
clockwork said:
Well, I wasn't really talking about the 3 fleets/the major surface combatants themselves. How about the sealift capacity? What percentage of the boats the PLA needs to ferry the men, vehicles and materiel across are already in place or very close to it, and where would the rest of those boats be coming from? Don't even a lot of civilian boats and barges need to be involved in that effort?
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you don't need tons of amphibs on day 1.

for the ground portion you need artillery to start pounding Kinmen, Matsu and Penghu islands, setting up SAMs and ASMs on the coast, rockets and SRBMs hitting Taiwan itself, etc.

for the naval portion you need to sink the ROCN and taking Penghu, laying mines, cutting cables, air defence, etc.

how many amphibs do you need for that?

you gather amphibs over the course of the war depending on how it's doing. gather them all on day 1? just a big target. if things are going well you have all the time in the world to get amphibs. if things are going badly, you don't need them.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
antiterror13 said:
Yes, I have been to Taiwan twice, the most recent one was in 2019, mostly in Taipei but been to many places, it was my holiday. Very nice people, same as in China's 2nd tier cities. I don't see any difference really than China's 2nd tier cities

Comparing Taipei to Beijing or Shanghai or Shenzhen or Guangzhou, would be too much, nowhere near that

What you hear from western medias regarding China or Taiwan are very biased, mostly not true at all
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The image of Taiwan that the English based news outlets post makes it seem that only its destruction is sensible for China's planning. But if it is true what you say that Taiwan is mostly inhabited by people who identify with their Chinese roots and at least hold an anti-conflict rather than anti-China stance but are essentially held hostage by a CIA-poisoned government then it finally makes sense to me why Beijing wants to wait for the opportunity to retake the island with peacefully or with minimal force rather than serve up the total obliteration that hanjian deserve. This would be the only reason for which I myself would think it worth it to wait to retake the island.
 
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LawLeadsToPeace

LawLeadsToPeace

Senior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
antiterror13 said:
Yes, I have been to Taiwan twice, the most recent one was in 2019, mostly in Taipei but been to many places, it was my holiday. Very nice people, same as in China's 2nd tier cities. I don't see any difference really than China's 2nd tier cities

Comparing Taipei to Beijing or Shanghai or Shenzhen or Guangzhou, would be too much, nowhere near that

What you hear from western medias regarding China or Taiwan are very biased, mostly not true at all
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Interesting. From what I have heard and seen (not from Western MSM; mines is based on experience and what other people seen and experienced), Taiwan's populace is extremely arrogant towards mainlanders and border line obsequious towards foreigners, particularly Japanese people. In addition, I have heard that Taiwan has been trying to call everything that's Chinese, "Taiwanese", and disconnect themselves from Chinese history and establish "Taiwanese" history. I guess your non-mainlander status made them more friendly to you OR you must be a DPP/KMT agent trying to do your duty of performing psyops on us lol.
 
4Runner

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Temstar said:
Just because he's very much onboard US taking down China does not mean us Chinese cannot listen to him and appreciate his clarity of vision. You can learn a lot about geopolitics listening to him.
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What I meant was that, it is not that I or we cannot listen to Mearsheimer. I am living in US and I listened to the right side way more than to the left side. As Chairman Mao once said that he preferred dealing with the right side of the west.

Rather, it is the fact that Mearsheimer was willing to appear on CGTN. I am not sure how familiar you are with the US domestic eco-system or if you live in US. I bet it would have taken a few dramatic turns of events in his professional life at U of Chicago or even personal life to make him willingly appearing on CGTN. Not long ago, CGTN was a dirty word here when Trump was still in the white house.

My point was that, in the US, even those life-long "panda huggers" have not dared appearing in CGTN, period. And Mearsheimer is a distinguished professor at U of Chicago. Go figure ......
 
Strangelove

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
4Runner said:

This is a 3-day old video, in which Mearsheimer emphasized to the host that US should have had a laser-like focus on containing China instead of messing with Russia over Ukraine, because China is a peer competitor.

Now you connect this video to the above video in which Mearsheimer was talking with CGTN. And you have to come to terms with Xi's "百年未有之大变局" vision. This is close to be a WTF moment with epic proportion.

I once had a close coworker who was a typical Utah white type. He was a big time fan of Mearsheimer and traveled to attend a few Mearsheimer seminars on his speech circuit. I still cannot get my brain straightened up for Mearsheimer appearing on CGTN. This would be equivalent to China letting Brad Pitt visiting times 10. This would also tell me how pissed Mearsheimer is right now at US MSM and political eco-system.

The world is changing in front of our eyes in ways we could not have imagined just a few years ago ......
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Of course he's pissed, they tried to cancel him LOL..

 
A

antiterror13

Brigadier
LawLeadsToPeace said:
Interesting. From what I have heard and seen (not from Western MSM; mines is based on experience and what other people seen and experienced), Taiwan's populace is extremely arrogant towards mainlanders and border line obsequious towards foreigners, particularly Japanese people. In addition, I have heard that Taiwan has been trying to call everything that's Chinese, "Taiwanese", and disconnect themselves from Chinese history and establish "Taiwanese" history. I guess your non-mainlander status made them more friendly to you OR you must be a DPP/KMT agent trying to do your duty of performing psyops on us lol.
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It might be, even I didn't see they could be arrogant to anybody really. From my face, they might think I was from Mainland anyway. But obviously I am not from mainland but they didn't know that

I do hope, there is no war in Taiwan ... peaceful reunification is very much the best option, may not be this decade, could be in 20-30 yrs, no rush at all. The only party wanted to have a war is perhaps only one country that you could guest ;) , definitely not the people in Taiwan, not at all
 
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