If Taiwan ever declares independence, you know they and the west will be 100% prepared for an invasion. You should attack your enemy when they least expect it. It would be a casus belli, but attacking straight away would be very risky in my opinion.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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That’s why I said a short time frame. The author is suggesting a couple years which could be 2-7 or whatever years
short time frame does not mean immediately.
I said something like this 1 or 2 years ago, I got obliterated by fellow Chinese hawks. They all thought I was trying to find excuses for the so-called "impotency" of China's state media and propaganda machine to "fight the media war". I was trying to make a case that media war does NOT matter as much as cultural revival and inward soul searching and that Media war is a fake and meaningless game of force-feeding masses with cheap redundant info which is ultimately a privilege of most proliferated platforms and their backers. There is no point winning a media war. Real physical war, technological war and economic war are much much more important that spending time bickering with others.
I said those earlier and nobody believes me. Now, it feels really good to hear you say what you are saying right now.
The actual declaration of independence is meaningless. Satellites are watching their preparations. If these preparations reach a certain threshold then it is time to strike because a declaration is imminently coming.
Dude, which world are you from?
Are you a ROC SFA Agent? Nobody thinks giving them more time to prepare would make it easier lmao
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Nice gaslighting wishful thinking trap strategy.
The entire premise of that argument is to ignore the ‘inconvenient’ fact that China has been preparing for armed reunification (AU) with Taiwan for 73 years.
There will never be a ‘perfect’ time for AU because China is getting stronger every year with no signs of stopping anytime soon, but I have no doubt that if the order is given today, the PLA will be read to go immediately. It may take a while to prepare and spin up forces, but we would be talking about a matter of hours for rapid reaction forces and speartip strike elements and days at most for the entire invasion force. Just reference how quickly the PLA mobiles for Ladakh, during the height of covid. And that’s a low priority mission at the arse end of China where troops had to be transported thousands of miles across the country and acclimatise to the high altitudes to boot. The entire Taiwan AU forces are garrisoned much closer to where they need to be in comparison.
Thus the central premise of that strategy is moot and wrong. China doesn’t need years or even months or even weeks to gear up for AU, and I think the Nancy tactical-covid-emergency-abort-parachute was deployed because China allowed US intelligence to see how fast the PLA can mobilise for AU, and the US had no way to match that pace and state of readiness to go toe to toe with China over Taiwan at this precise moment in time. Had the visit gone ahead, China was willing and able to escalate up to and including full AU and the US would have had to back down or fight and loose. So faking covid was the only play they had.
America would absolutely love it if China was stupid enough to spend 50% of GDP on defence for years and trash it’s own economy in the process. All so the US can just extend its nuclear umbrella over Taiwan and render all that military expenditure moot with the threat of MAD, just like how they played the soviets during the Cold War.
Even if China dares America to go nuclear and America backs down, it will just instead embargo and sanction China to death after China takes Taiwan because China would have already killed its economic links with the rest of the world to spend 50% of GDP on weapons so it’s going to be essentially cost free for the west to do that.
Right now, China is the world’s factory. If the US goes to war against China over Taiwan, the whole world feels the pain in the form of shortages of everything and hyperinflation on everything. That means the US will struggle to enlist allies and will face massive pressure to back off if it is seen as the instigator of the conflict. Once the shooting stops, the rest of the world would be too desperate for a respite from their own economic misery to care and fully re-establishing trade links with China asap. That will leave America as the one isolated and broke.
This sounds very suspicious to me, either the India side is just fear-mongering to justify building up forces and infrastructure there, or China is actually planning something. It makes no sense to do random incursion now when China is trying to settle for peace, maybe this is preparations for or practicing for defending the borders during an armed reunification scenario with Taiwan. After all, India is predicted to try to take advantage of the situation, from what I read here before in another thread about China's contingency plans for armed reunification.
Agreed. Armenia was winning the propaganda war against Azerbaijan until the moment their army collapsed and they had to be bailed out by Russia. A similar thing happened with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and I suspect the same will happen for the Russians in the Ukraine eventually. Ignore the media war and concentrate on the battlefield. In the end no one will care how many upvotes you got on reddit.
When you've won the war you can narrate whatever story you want for the history books.
"Days at most" for the entire force? That seems ridiculous, but I have been wondering how long is needed. Observing the Russian buildup, and taking into account the amphibious context, I was guessing that at least 3-4 weeks would be needed from the day the decision is made, before all forces are ready in Fujian, even if they were trying to mobilize as quickly as possible. The exception might be if maybe there were preceding signs of independence or something so they prepositioned a portion already, then perhaps just assembling the rest and getting the fleet into position wouldn't take quite as long.