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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
@clockwork
Even oilprice.com, which is a website about oil industry news, has been co-opted by the spooks. I mean just look at the sponsors of a lot of the latest news. And they even post articles by RFE/RL. Radio Free Europe. CIA news directly sponsored by US government.
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xypher

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think the timeframe is wrong, but most importantly the question itself needs to be changed. We should change our thinking first.

Like on Ukraine, my underlined thinking was always more about the US than Russia. Similarly, in a Tw reunification scenario, its the US that is most probably going to be the orchestrator, so we should focus more on it's actions than on China's predictable reaction.

IMO a more suitable question is:
When will the US decide to trigger a Taiwan reunification war?

My hunch is that while Biden is president, the chance is about 10-15%. After the elections, and if a Republican is elected, possibility of a war skyrockets to >50%.

To summarise, I think its too early to make a final bet/prediction about Taiwan. I will probably do so at late 2023 - early 2024
I think it will depend on which Republican candidate will be elected. If it is Trump or someone like him, then you could just bribe him and build some Trump towers in Beijing, then he will be again telling how Xi Jinping is his best friend and Trump made a "yuge, bigliest and bestest" trade deal ever.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
I think the US has nothing to do with it. They are supposed to replace that with their own helicopter. Which is nowhere near ready.
This is just the typical Indian think which gave us Arjun and Tejas.
What do you think the Americans were talking to Indians about on the number of meetings they've had. They're obviously unhappy with India's military ties with Russia and are doing everything they can to stop it. That's more of a problem for them than oil deals.

What Americans would have wanted them to do is buy some blackhawks or something instead of the Mi-17s. India is saying they will develop their own is just them shelving the option to make a deal with the Russians. As you say, they are far from making decent helicopters, let alone a transport helicopter. Typical of Indians to try and find a middle ground, even when it is the worst position to be in.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
I think it will depend on which Republican candidate will be elected. If it is Trump or someone like him, then you could just bribe him and build some Trump towers in Beijing, then he will be again telling how Xi Jinping is his best friend and Trump made a "yuge, bigliest and bestest" trade deal ever.

Nope. Trump can't be bribed by conventional means. Xi allowed him to eat in the forbidden palace but all he got was trade war.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Nope. Trump can't be bribed by conventional means. Xi allowed him to eat in the forbidden palace but all he got was trade war.
I don’t think Trump wants the hot conflict under his watch because he very much cares about his own image. It’s likely he will confront China but I don’t think his willing to push it over the top. Looks more likely towards the end of 2020s.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don’t think Trump wants the hot conflict under his watch because he very much cares about his own image. It’s likely he will confront China but I don’t think his willing to push it over the top. Looks more likely towards the end of 2020s.
I think the chances of an actual hot conflict between the US and China is low this decade, although still there.

On the other hand I do see the US in trying to arm Taiwan and hope it can be come China's 'Ukraine', bogging down China (and using it to rally its allies and for justification of sanctions, although its gonna be a very bloody double edged sword if they do sanctions).
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
I think the chances of an actual hot conflict between the US and China is low this decade, although still there.

On the other hand I do see the US in trying to arm Taiwan and hope it can be come China's 'Ukraine', bogging down China (and using it to rally its allies and for justification of sanctions, although its gonna be a very bloody double edged sword if they do sanctions).

It really depends how strong China is (military and economy) this decade relatively to the US, if the US sense they have a definite edge, the chance of hot conflict would be higher.

Most likely scenario is that China will be much stronger in military, economy and technology by the end of this decade relative to the US and EU, so YES, I agree that the chance of hot conflict is extremely low

Also there is a possibility that the next Taiwan president is from KMT or not that hostile to China

Taiwanese people are very nice and very proud to be Chinese, I think it is one of the nicest people I have ever met during my visit to many many countries. And they openly said they don't trust the US and "hate" them
 
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