I think the timeframe is wrong, but most importantly the question itself needs to be changed. We should change our thinking first.
Like on Ukraine, my underlined thinking was always more about the US than Russia. Similarly, in a Tw reunification scenario, its the US that is most probably going to be the orchestrator, so we should focus more on it's actions than on China's predictable reaction.
IMO a more suitable question is:
When will the US decide to trigger a Taiwan reunification war?
My hunch is that while Biden is president, the chance is about 10-15%. After the elections, and if a Republican is elected, possibility of a war skyrockets to >50%.
To summarise, I think its too early to make a final bet/prediction about Taiwan. I will probably do so at late 2023 - early 2024