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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
I believe that many, if not most, Ukrainians feel an overpowering emotional urge to escape Russia's influence.
So what? They are an independent country and they can make their own choices for their diplomatic policies

That proves to be that they aren't thinking critically because the first thing they would see if they looked at a map is that there's no escaping Russia's influence in the patch of geography they occupy
If you looked at a map you would also see that there is the EU next door. The future is pointing towards EU not Russia. Why would Ukraine turn towards a Russian economy and not towards EU? If I was a Ukrainian I would also 100% push for Ukraine to escape Russia and join EU.

What is Russia offering to Ukraine to keep it in its sphere of influence?

You like Russia, and I like it too, but that doesn't mean that it is somehow entitled to boss around its neighborhood. When you see China with its neighborhood and how gentle it is, that shows how much it respects its neighbors. That's a giant dragon next to them, and it is still restrained on how it acts to countries next to it

It seems that you have 2 different standards for China and Russia. I would rather the World be behaving like China and not like Russia
 
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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
So what? They are an independent country and they can make their own choices for their diplomatic policies
A lot of people say the same of Taiwan. So no, the Ukrainians are not an independent people who get to make their own choices, that's their fate. When you're that strategically vital to a great power, you don't get to choose. The only "choice" they have is to make peace with their fate or be turned into Syria.

If I hold any "principled belief" about this subject it's that great powers are due their spheres of influence. Countries within that sphere should have freedom so long as their choices don't mortally threaten their patron - Ukraine forfeited that freedom when it decided to join NATO. So sincerely do I hold this belief that I'll say this: If America ever becomes a sane country and accepts that it isn't "exceptional" and doesn't have any claim to "universal values" or a sphere of influence that blankets the planet, I would wholly support it stomping the crap out of Canada and Mexico if they moved to join a Chinese/Russian military alliance.
Why would Ukraine turn towards a Russian economy and not towards EU?
So that it wouldn't be destroyed.
If I was a Ukrainian I would also 100% push for Ukraine to escape Russia and join EU.
Then you would be condemning your countrymen to horrific suffering.
What is Russia offering to Ukraine to keep it in its sphere of influence?
The privilege of Ukraine drawing its next breath.
When you see China with its neighborhood and how gentle it is, that shows how much it respects its neighbors. That's a giant dragon next to them, and it is still restrained on how it acts to countries next to it
That's because China's neighbours understand that there are red lines that they cannot cross without inviting disaster. They're intelligent enough to grasp this, Ukrainians aren't.
I would rather the World be behaving like China and not like Russia
There are no "I would rather"s in geopolitics. Relations between countries are fundamentally savage and brutal; the best that can be hoped for is to minimize that savagery, and the best way to do that is to respect powerful countries' red lines.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
A lot of people say the same of Taiwan. So no, the Ukrainians are not an independent people who get to make their own choices, that's their fate.
Disagree. Taiwan is not a country and is not internationally recognised as a country. You should know better than writing that Taiwan is in any kind, similar to Ukraine. There are 0 similarities between them.

When you're that strategically vital to a great power, you don't get to choose
Correct, but EU is also next to them. Its not like they are geographically isolated. Yes I know that EU is not a "geopolitical" heavy weight, but their economy sure is, which in turn can influence many matters. So in my opinion, the "choice" for Ukraine is not solely Russia, there is also EU/West.

If I hold any "principled belief" about this subject it's that great powers are due their spheres of influence
I agree with conditions though. A great power should also offer benefits to these countries. I don't see this happening on Ukraine and Russia. Only offering sticks is a recipe for disaster (happening now).


So that it wouldn't be destroyed.
So Ukraine is morally justified to turn towards the West for protection in order to survive. If someone is threatening to destroy you then you should pivot to other powers.


That's because China's neighbours understand that there are red lines that they cannot cross without inviting disaster. They're intelligent enough to grasp this, Ukrainians aren't.
Yes because they are also offered enough benefits. China is publically showing its carrots but it also gives them enough sticks.
As such there is a balanced ratio of carrots-sticks which keeps them in line.
On the other hand Russia doesn't have enough carrots to satisfy its neighbors which it wants in its sphere of influence


There are no "I would rather"s in geopolitics. Relations between countries are fundamentally savage and brutal; the best that can be hoped for is to minimize that savagery, and the best way to do
Agree but great powers should also give some benefits to those countries.

I believe that you know enough of history to understand that only relying on sticks and military power is not a viable long term strategy.

The current examples of the US, China show how they can play this game. America's allies are basically feeding of its dying body at this point. China on the other hand is smarter and knows how to play this game much better. Russia on the other hand, IMO is failing.

Anyway I think our fundamental points are similar on that smaller powers should respect the great powers next to them. I think where we diverge is that I believe that great powers should also provide benefits to these smaller countries if they want them to in their sphere of influence
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Yes because they are also offered enough benefits. China is publically showing its carrots but it also gives them enough sticks.
As such there is a balanced ratio of carrots-sticks which keeps them in line.
On the other hand Russia doesn't have enough carrots to satisfy its neighbors which it wants in its sphere of influence

Boy this is sure wrong as heck. The fact is Russia did offer Ukraine a better deal. They granted them more financing than the EU was willing to give when Ukraine was in a severe financing pinch. Russia offered Ukraine a $15 billion USD loan and discounts on the gas price. The Ukrainian President basically took the deal with Russia and then the West just pushed a coup to oust the Ukrainian President from power.

Just look at the huge amounts of money Russia has lent Belarus so far including building them two new nuclear power plants.
Just recently Russia even delayed the start of repayments of the loan on the first nuclear power plant at the Belarussian government's request. Belarus was supposed to start repaying the loan once the power plant was operational and supplying electric power to the grid.
Good luck getting a deal like that from anywhere else.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Boy this is sure wrong as heck. The fact is Russia did offer Ukraine a better deal
So you are saying that Ukraine is better off long term with Russia than the EU?

Eastern Europe countries who have joined the EU have seen their wealth increased much more than non-EU countries. So why would Ukraine choose Russia over EU?

Russia has a subpar economy (international trade we look at GDP Nominal) in comparison to the EU.

I am all ears to listen on how you could credibly explain that Ukraine is better off with Russia than the EU. I would also like to listen to the people on the ground what they would prefer. Even with CIA rampant, there will still be more people in favour of the EU than Russia


Russia offered Ukraine a $15 billion USD loan and discounts on the gas price.
I am talking about medium-long term direction for the country


The Ukrainian President basically took the deal with Russia and then the West just pushed a coup to oust the Ukrainian President from power.
Yes.


Just look at the huge amounts of money Russia has lent Belarus so far including building them two new nuclear power plants.
That's nothing in comparison to what EU is offering to its EE members
 
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