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ZZY1977

New Member
Registered Member
In fact, i don't think Russia want to invade Ukraine, they just kept the current situation, kept east Ukraine factual independence.
 

BoraTas

Major
Registered Member
It may be a calculated move by the US. If it forces Russia to invade Ukraine, it achieves twin goals of rallying the EU and placing additional sanctions on Russia. When those sanctions hit, Russia has no choice but to turn to China. The real goal is of course China, and if Russia is formally allied with China, the EU has no choice but to follow US lead on China/.
This is an infantilization of Europe. Unless China openly supports Russia against Europe, it would be completely unreasonable for Europe to become enemies with China. Do they want China to join sanctions against Russia? Well, that's a pipe dream regardless of what happens. China is not going to make Russia its enemy while it is sharing the world longest with it. It is that simple. And trying to force China to do that would be Europe's aggression against China. China would just behave like how it behaved after Russia annexed Crimea.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Yes. Lets be honest, a US + EU combined economical power is approximately $35 trillion.
If you see it from the economic terms then it is a no brainer for the US to trade Russia for the EU.

China takes Russia's side but I would bet that if something happened, it would keep very quiet in order to not provoke the EU and make it even closer to the US.

What is happening here is the US using its advantages to provoke Russia to attack Ukraine and then find an excuse to close ranks with the EU and sanction so hard the Russian economy that itnwill suffer substantial damage. Then the US would also try to get China into this mess

This is a trap. China isn't afraid of taking the West, but not today. The timeframe is for 2030+, not 2022. Here, Chinese diplomats and leaders will have to play a masterful and delicate hand in order to keep the status quo (basically, play for time)
No one is ready for war you just got to do with you got. Most of German general does not want war to start in 1939 they want it to start in 1943 But it happened. The funny thing China pledge 200 billion dollars for Africa as to this year Not sure if all of them disburse. With that kind of money they can buy a lot ships, tanks, fighter jets. I guess the need to be pat on the back is more important than survival. It make me depress what are they thinking the barbarian is on the gate and you play nice guy? Song dynasty again?
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
This is an infantilization of Europe. Unless China openly supports Russia against Europe, it would be completely unreasonable for Europe to become enemies with China. Do they want China to join sanctions against Russia? Well, that's a pipe dream regardless of what happens. China is not going to make Russia its enemy while it is sharing the world longest with it. It is that simple. And trying to force China to do that would be Europe's aggression against China. China would just behave like how it behaved after Russia annexed Crimea.
Indeed. If it goes to a scenario where China would have to choose, it would 100% choose Russia over the EU.

Russia is far too important for China.

And the EU is already restrained by its economic dependence on China on what it can do. So unless China suddenly becomes 100x times more threatening to EU, it won't take a hard line

This is what Biden is aiming to do with Ukraine, and this is why this is vicious move by the US. Whatever China will choose, it won't be able to please everyone
 

solarz

Brigadier
Yes. Lets be honest, a US + EU combined economical power is approximately $35 trillion.
If you see it from the economic terms then it is a no brainer for the US to trade Russia for the EU.

Don't just look at the numbers, you need to look at the nature of the economies.

Both US and EU economies are mainly service. They have little manufacturing capability but a lot of consumption demand.

Russia is an energy giant, which fits right with China's needs. US and EU might be large markets for China, but they're not the only markets. China's own domestic market would be enough to sustain the Chinese economy.

On the other hand, US and EU are economic competitors, not partners. They produce largely the same goods and offer the same services.

On an economic level, a China-Russia partnership would be far more competitive than a US-EU partnership.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
No one is ready for war you just got to do with you got. Most of German general does not want war to start in 1939 they want it to start in 1943 But it happened. The funny thing China pledge 200 billion dollars for Africa as to this year Not sure if all of them disburse. With that kind of money they can buy a lot ships, tanks, fighter jets. I guess the need to be pat on the back is more important than survival. It make me depress what are they thinking the barbarian is on the gate and you play nice guy? Song dynasty again?
China investing 200 billion dollar in Africa is actually a smart move. Europe's power comes from the fact they had access to cheaper resources from Africa and their other colonies.

There is this example of the global chocolate market. The global chocolate market is worth $150 billion. West African nations provide 70% of the resources and only get like 6 billion for it. Europe and US food companies can make $105 billion which is 70% of 150 billion from 6 billion. Increasing the value of cacao beans by almost 18 times. Imaging the west losing this market to Asian and African brands because chine invested in regional chocolate production. Thats 100 billion less revenue that can taxed and use to pay for military adventures by the west.

This China eating away at the wests bottom line. China become more of a consumer market might help Africa with this by importing African and Asian chocolate.

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