Miscellaneous News

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Is this the fastest collapse we've seen around the world in the past 20 years? Did Assad leave Damascus yet?

This is speculation but it feels that the reason why it was relatively calm for the last 48-76 hours up until recently. Was likely private negotiations for the Russians, Iranians, and everyone else to leave. The deadline was probably the end of the Astana summit from yesterday.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
And what if the ETIM/TIP and allies comes into power. China is not going to work with Uigher terrorists.

Geopolitics is dynamic.

Unfortunately, China doesn't really has any other viable alternatives in Syria as Assad's government disintegrates. China also has neither the will nor capability to put boots on the ground in Syria to work towards something that will be massively in their favor, so China can only work with whatever they have there.

If anything, it might be in Beijing's interests to come with some sort of agreement with whoever's coming to power in Damascus post-Assad and especially their masters in Ankara, in exchange for them to not support extremist adventures into Xinjiang.

Having someone who you can talk with on the table (even if you really hate and despise that someone) is still way better than having someone who you can only talk with using guns.

However, if Syria descends into Libya 2.0 instead of just a post-2022 Afghanistan, then there's an entirely different calculus at play. But of course, Beijing-Ankara communications are still crucial.

In the meantime, China should definitely work towards rapidly stepping up its socio-economic presence and influence across Central Asia and West Asia, especially in light of Russia's withdrawal from Syria (and the Middle East in general). This may eventually enables security presence in the region, should the need arises.

Time is of the essence.
 
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Randomuser

Senior Member
Registered Member
Now I get why China doesn't really intervene much. There's always a chance you pick a guy that has massive issues inherently and you basically have you spend so much money keeping him alive since he can't make it by himself. And when the cost is too much you have to bail out like this in a embarrassing manner.

The whole Global South thing sounds nice on paper until you realize its only a few countries doing the actual fighting and everyone else expecting them to do the work for them.

India is a prime example of how this can go wrong. They keep calling themselves the leader of the global south. So lets say a lot of countries start having issues and start going to India for help. Thats when you will see ugliness really coming out and will collapse this group quite fast.
 
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coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
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Geopolitics is dynamic.

Unfortunately, China doesn't really has any other alternatives in Syria, once Assad's government disintegrates. China also has neither the will nor capability to put boots on the ground in Syria to work towards something that will be massively in their favor, so China can only work with whatever they have.

If anything, it might be in Beijing's interests to come with some sort of agreement with whoever's coming to power in Damascus post-Assad and especially their masters in Ankara that China would at least retain its present investments in Syria, in exchange for them to not support extremist adventures into Xinjiang.

However, if Syria descends into Libya 2.0 instead of just a post-2003 Iraq, then there's an entirely different calculus at play. But of course, Beijing-Ankara communications are still crucial.

In the meantime, China should definitely work towards rapidly stepping up its socio-economic presence and influence across Central Asia and West Asia, especially in light of Russia's withdrawal from Syria (and the Middle East in general). This may eventually enables security presence in the region, should the need arises.

Time is of the essence.
What investments does China have in Syria? I thought they were mostly aid related stuff to help Syrians improve their lives, nothing of economic benefits for China.

I think the negotiations about Syria might have happened a lot earlier than we know.

Nov 27th Aleppo offensive begins.

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Nov 27th
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Nov 30th Wang Yi chairs the Fifth China-Central Asia Foreign Ministers' Meeting.
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