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ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Then again, even China doesn't seem too bothered about what's happening to its own citizens in western countries, the cusp of it being the whole Meng Wanzhou debacle.
I don't want to beat a dead horse here, especially since you apologized for your outburst. I originally intended to write a tl;dr but I'll just point out a quick fact: the Meng Wanzhou debacle happened in December 2018. Since then, the Chinese economy has expanded by roughly 40%.

That's what matters. Not incidents here and there.
Russia is a basket case. Does China have an even bigger brother to support it in case something goes wrong? Russia can afford to act crazy because it knows China will never accept it's failure. But China doesn't have anything similar to depend on, so it has to act extremely careful
I wouldn't call Russia a basket case, but your point is well taken. China's first priority is growing its economy and technological capabilities. There's no sugar daddy China can go to if things go sideways.
This position completely ignores the history of the Third World and how it is the west responsibility the state it is in.
The West is responsible for a large part of it but not all of it. If the West were entirely responsible, CPEC would have been a stunning success. The sad fact is that "people are poor because they want to be" has a degree of truth.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Israel is an evil far too great for any force in that area. Only China can end Israel with a beast mode full military strike lasting one night only leaving Israel in total shambles and then dare anybody to do anything about it. But if that day comes, I presume it will have come because China has grown so strong that even Western European countries will only say Israel deserved it and never draw China's ire. And it will also have to depend on Israel's stupidity because we Chinese never strike people when they are in submission.
The thing is though that as Israel has correctly read the geopolitical environment today and is doing what is doing, bet you that when/if China becomes the top dog, by that time Israel would have long accomplish its objectives and then started 'atoning' for its sins

Maybe they would preserve some limited areas where people can visit Palestinian cultural artifacts. Build some museums, maybe make a national holiday for remembering the bad things that then "old generation" did. Then new generation would say "why blame US for what our grandparents did" etc, basically the US defence for what they did to native Americans and black Americans.

See, smart countries know how to be nimble and flexible. In that case, as long as Israel knows how to play the game and read the geopolitical situation correctly, nothing serious will happen to it
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I do follow quite a few of them. Yes, I mean the language at times in the forums.



Thats part of the issue as a big chunk of the arab leadership has been compromised over years of coups, bribes and so on, so it is why I make an argument for a third party to step up. Arab populations have rised against them, just to be gunned down by the western backed elites, so this is why I ask how you break the cycle without external support?


Fair points. My frustation stems from the fact that it would be nice to see some more assertiveness from Chinese diplomacy, something that makes a difference even within the existing framework.

But thats just me.
You have to understand that there's nothing Chinese or even Russians can do to help those who resist help.

How did Isrl get Nasrallah when they can't even get Hamas leadership in Gaza, an operationally encircled position that they even control the water to? Literally because an Iranian betrayed them.

Elite capture in the nonwest is real. When they would sell even their mothers for the chance to shop at Burberry in London, what do you expect them to value dignity at? 0. How do we know this? Because many of these people are Chinese too. It is only because of China's unique political structure that these types are kept away from power.

But make no mistake, they're there. And in other countries there's no barriers keeping them away from power. And they'll gladly run their countries into the ground for a pat on the head. Japan did it in the Plaza accords. Soviet Union did it. These are countries much stronger than Iran and Lebanon who were in 0 real danger yet they bent the knee for Pizza Hut and Hollywood, so what do you think Iran and Lebanon are gonna do?
 

Rafi

Junior Member
Registered Member
China should be more embarrassed with its long association with Pakistan that is keep afloat by Arabs and through Arab support by US.
Iran do alot of things competently like its Education and infrastructure (they increased Oil/Gas) and i dont think country is bankrupt.
This North-South is what is expected.

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Arabs don’t know you little bro, and Pakistan is doing fine
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
They only acquired S300PMU and S400 for evaluation, no S500. Not really a good time to ask Russia for one right now, maybe they could after the war. Or since cooperation deepened, China can just directly examine data from Russian sources.

S500 corresponds best with late variant hq-9 in China's own arsenal. China continously update them without changing the official designation, but people unofficially call the late variants B or C. Unlike the S400 family, hq-9s are track by missile, it's accused from some speculative sources that they descend from Patriot acquired from Israel, but this is with near 100% certainty not true, they only happen to share the basic tracking principles.
Russia has done 300mile intercept test with S500 in 2018 but those tests are now done in Kazakhstan so it may have more range than what they are disclosing. so obviously speed and altitude will change. it is not like Russian hasn't upgraded domestic test sites.

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Russia quietly conducted the world’s longest surface-to-air missile test​

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Russian S-500 to Receive New Missiles​

"Successful tests of the ammunition took place at the Sary-Shagan test site in Kazakhstan. After a series of launches, the planned characteristics were confirmed, and the combat crews successfully completed the task, hitting the simulated target with the specified accuracy," the newspaper writes.
 

Index

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thats part of the issue as a big chunk of the arab leadership has been compromised over years of coups, bribes and so on, so it is why I make an argument for a third party to step up. Arab populations have rised against them, just to be gunned down by the western backed elites, so this is why I ask how you break the cycle without external support?

Fair points. My frustation stems from the fact that it would be nice to see some more assertiveness from Chinese diplomacy, something that makes a difference even within the existing framework.
China assisted Russia not just on the battlefield but on a massive economic scale, to the point they're now pumped to world no4 economy. That's an unprecedented huge bankroll.

Maybe the idea is a sort of pivot where after NATO is sufficiently depleted in Ukraine, China can circle back to the middle east, now with a stronger Russia tying down NATO and Syria being a Russian playground. Plus then, there will be a lot of people clamoring for an UN style intervention on Israel, and US position may be too weak to resist it.

Both Arab and western propaganda are amplifying Israeli performance manyfold, because they have a vested interest in it. People here now act like there's no time and we must bomb all Israel harder than Russia shelled Mariupol or else Rwanda 2.0 will happen and China will be complicit are simply far exaggerating because of this media panic.

250 000 Ukrainians have fled during this year to Belarus and Russia. That is in addition to the many times larger amounts that went to EU. And surely no one here believes Israel has even approached getting rid of 250 000 Arabs from last year til now.

So who here believes Ukraine will surrender by Christmas? I don't. Next year Christmas maybe. Why the hurrying and panic then?

I can understand that we are allowed to have some moral panic in China. The Palestinians are fighting invaders to defend their homeland, we Chinese also have the same history. It's like how the EU have a history of fighting under nazi legions, Ukraine also has that history, so there is a moral panic response because the pain of the Ukrainian also reflects to the EU.

But losing head completely over this moral panic is counterproductive.
 

MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
We are much stronger now and can afford to push farther, do more, but we are NOT an overmatch for the combined West in a middle-eastern conflict. We can't be the heros for the global south today because we're just not strong enough yet.

This is the key. It's all about hard power dynamics.

If the enemy can bomb and kill you indiscriminately, rhetoric without actions is all that's left to try and salvage. Iran knows this, so does china and Russia. They are still bidding their time, and smartly so.

No matter how some on the forum wanted Iran to start a war, or for china to shart shooting when Pelosi was traveling to Taiwan, or want Russia to shoot down all NATO assets around eastern Europe, the same hard power dynamics are still at play.

That being said, if the enemy backs one into a corner eg. keep territorial integrity and security such as Korean war, Ukraine joining NATO, than you gotta fight as best as you can. Otherwise, you got to evade. There's no shame in doing that as long as you have a plan to come back stronger.

Iran is somewhat compromised. They just had a new president, with the previous one dying under suspicious circumstances.

Their population is divided. They need to hunker down, clean house. Starting a war is not what they need or can do. Many here may disagree with me but Hezbollah is not absolutely essential to Iranian territorial security. Hazbollahs success offers the Iranian ruling class mainly bragging rights and some political strength but it's mostly internal economy that counts towards population support.

Thats why I still feel Putin had the right idea. He had to fight to keep Ukraine form joining NATO and becoming an existential security threat to Russia. When he couldn't get a quick political agreement, he started the slow grind, but focused on keeping the economy afloat, maintaining support and logistics. This is, I feel, a much more superior strategy than trying to overwhelmingly destroy and conquer Ukraine with tons of men and recruits, then spending inordinate amount of money to keep and suppress local uprising and guerrilla warfare, like what the US did in Afghanistan and Vietnam. Russia would probably be bankrupt and there would be a lot more social unrest, Putin probably would have lost lots of support or even have lost the election.

I suspect that was what the west had hoped Putin would do because that would be a sure way for him to lose support

All warfare is based on deception. If your enemy is superior, evade him; if slightly inferior, yiu should avoid the enemy; if quite unequal in every way, you should flee from him.”
— Sun Tzu
 

canonicalsadhu

Junior Member
Registered Member
The rule of geopolitics is simple: if you are strong, you get a seat at the table. If you are weak, you are on the menu. China learned that lesson the hard way. Why can't the rest of the "global south"?
Not every global south country has a population of 1.4 billion. China's rise was in no small part due to its ability to leverage its huge population size to attract foreign investment and gradually climb the value chain. Other countries simply don't have this advantage.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
When did China claim leadership of the Global South? Show me an article from People’s Daily

The only ones are the US and Jai Hind.

Isn't that part of the point behind things like the BRICS and BRI?. A win-win relationship for all the involved in multiple areas, not depedent on the anglos racial and geopolitical games and interests?.

I wouldn't call Russia a basket case, but your point is well taken. China's first priority is growing its economy and technological capabilities. There's no sugar daddy China can go to if things go sideways.
Yeah, but like I mentioned before, at some point you are going to have to get your hands dirty. And if you don't do it voluntarily, the west will force you to and and on their terms, most likely.

We know the west isn't going to really wait for China to reach a point where the anglos can't mount a challenge at all in which at least they can dictate some if not most of the rules of engagement, so to speak.

Using Russia as an example, I'm sure they would have been more than happy not having to go to war in Ukraine and they even tried to disengage early on the war, but the "wait things out" aproach allowed the west to dictate the rules of the situation initially.


The West is responsible for a large part of it but not all of it. If the West were entirely responsible, CPEC would have been a stunning success. The sad fact is that "people are poor because they want to be" has a degree of truth.
While it might hold true in one aspect, it is never, ever the main general reason. It is in the west main interests for extractivist and geopolitical purposes to keep the global south impoverished and exploited enough that they are dependant on their ties to them but not enough were unrest might get out of hand or become a burden.

What do you think would happen if Mexico suddenly decided to eschew the whole of NAFTA and to ask China or Russia to build a base in Tijuana?. How long would the Mexican government last?.

We all know the long and studied history of the US in Latin America and the Europeans in Africa and Asia, and how they kept and keep mucking things up.


Maybe they would preserve some limited areas where people can visit Palestinian cultural artifacts. Build some museums, maybe make a national holiday for remembering the bad things that then "old generation" did. Then new generation would say "why blame US for what our grandparents did" etc, basically the US defence for what they did to native Americans and black Americans.
Thats the thing, it shouldn't be allowed to reach that point, not only out of emotional and moral point of veiw, but also because it has long term cultural and political ramifications. Is in no-one self interests to allow an outpost of irrational and delusional white supremacism to stand.

I mean, Israel is one of the backers of the whole East Turkestan shenanigans, for starters.

See, smart countries know how to be nimble and flexible. In that case, as long as Israel knows how to play the game and read the geopolitical situation correctly, nothing serious will happen to it
Is it smart though?. Lets not forget this started out Netanyahu's wish to avoid jail, not some national interests struggle.

Elite capture in the nonwest is real. When they would sell even their mothers for the chance to shop at Burberry in London, what do you expect them to value dignity at? 0. How do we know this? Because many of these people are Chinese too. It is only because of China's unique political structure that these types are kept away from power.
Thats why I argue that non-interventionism can only get you so far and long term is counter productive to Chinese interests regardless of ones perceptions of the region or the global south as a whole.

Japan did it in the Plaza accords.
Japan has been a Western vassal since day one after the lost the war. Their entire country is set up like that, so I don't think it is a fair inclusion from my personal opinion.

Soviet Union did it.
Thats one of the West biggest successes, yes. The late soviet leadership were also big on non-interventionism.

These are countries much stronger than Iran and Lebanon who were in 0 real danger yet they bent the knee for Pizza Hut and Hollywood, so what do you think Iran and Lebanon are gonna do?
Fair enough.

Maybe the idea is a sort of pivot where after NATO is sufficiently depleted in Ukraine, China can circle back to the middle east, now with a stronger Russia tying down NATO and Syria being a Russian playground. Plus then, there will be a lot of people clamoring for an UN style intervention on Israel, and US position may be too weak to resist it.
I wish, but at this point I'm afraid people will just move on with ther life and shrug once the deed is done.
 
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