It would miss first mover and network advantages; the RoW would be locked into firms that are first to market (not Chinese startups in this scenario). Examples would include things like Google and Windows - those search and OS products are functional monopolies in the world ex-China, more or less, entirely traceable to them being the first to market with what were then highly innovative ideas (with Google, the idea of placing ads based on keyword search to facilitate market making: with Windows, a point and click UI on top of an OS that made it usable to laymen without having to memorize 500 Unix commands on a CLI)
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It is the same term used by the same source over time so “narrow or broaden your definition” issues shouldn’t result in that abrupt of a change, especially since if it was a change in methods, you’d find a sharp drop or increase overnight, but here, that didn’t happen. Instead, what you saw was a rapid decline over 1-2 years.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Also, I wouldn't really worry about Chinese firms being locked out of "90%" (???) of the world's economy, we are already seeing circumvention of certain Chinese firms which are blacklisted due to their business with Russia (like Deepcool, where a third party retailer began reselling their products on Amazon after being banned from the US: )
Chinese firms can continue to "Singapore wash" and try to legally distance themselves from China, while still acting as Chinese firms, hiring Chinese talent, and taking advantage of Chinese supply chains and human capital (like Shein and Bytedance):
Ultimately the US needs to have alignment with their allies and the administrative capacity to keep track of all these firms and play whack-a-mole with their sanction policy, otherwise it'll prove to be ineffective, like what we're seeing with Russia currently.
Chinese firms can continue to "Singapore wash" and try to legally distance themselves from China, while still acting as Chinese firms, hiring Chinese talent, and taking advantage of Chinese supply chains and human capital (like Shein and Bytedance):
Ultimately the US needs to have alignment with their allies and the administrative capacity to keep track of all these firms and play whack-a-mole with their sanction policy, otherwise it'll prove to be ineffective, like what we're seeing with Russia currently.
Time will prove who is right, it seems. We can review this conversation 3-5 years in the future.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
State regulations tightened amidst the chaos of the start-up peak and China pretty much chose to reign it in to become more regulated, ruly, and clean. There were just too many companies there to cheat people out of money rather than get anything useful done and it had to be stopped. Sometimes, things are just better under government directive.
So it's basically a nothing-burger because China's continued world-beating pace of innovation means that the ecosystem has shifted and continues to work.
That's one hell of a mistake. What person with even a vague understanding of the world, would think that China's population and GDP are only 10%?? That's like claiming that the USA has a population of 330 people, then going, "Oh, my bad, it's 330 million. I didn't see the million. No big deal, doesn't change anything."
The meaning was wrong in the first place. China has the highest number of trading partners in the world and only the frustrated jealous West would close off their markets to China. The number of countries that welcome China's business far outnumber those that would close themselves to in hoping that the harm they can cause themselves would be less than that caused to China, but always being proven incorrect as China finds new fresh trading partners instead.
The locking out is not in this case, a political decision, it is a business decision (hence, my reference to Google Search and Windows) - Baidu clears very little outside of China, not because it is banned, but because it was 2nd: people are used to using Google, no advertiser wants to run ads on baifu because it reaches a smaller customer base and that limits the scope of baidu to do the web scraping, etc, etc.
Once those network effects and customer lock-ins happen, people won’t change absent very compelling reasons, as it relates to startups. No amount of sanctions circumvention or whatnot matter in this case because it’s all legal trade.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
That is a really high expectation to hold for someone who claimed, then continued to argue, that a 168% increase is less than doubling.
I mean saying US doesn't need to deescalate because it so strong etc etc is straight up debunked multiple times over already.
American nationalists were saying this as far back as pivot to Asia or Trump trade war. Saying "we can review this conversation 3-5 years in the future" and that America will finally stop being scared and escalate.
It has already been 3-5 years, and then 3-5 years again since then.
US political elites, economic oligarchs, generals, admirals and officials get cold feet, somehow only high bravado nationalists that get their news from fox and epoch times don't get cold feet.
which is why I am going to enjoy watching yet another migrant crisis happening in Europe this fall with Ukraine goes into an existential crisis when the energy grid finally goes down hard. These NATO bastards literally cannot learn any lessons until those freaks in Brussels get a taste of its own medicine, preferably French Revolution style due to how out of touch they are with reality