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GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
I mean saying US doesn't need to deescalate because it so strong etc etc is straight up debunked multiple times over already.

American nationalists were saying this as far back as pivot to Asia or Trump trade war. Saying "we can review this conversation 3-5 years in the future" and that America will finally stop being scared and escalate.

It has already been 3-5 years, and then 3-5 years again since then.

US political elites, economic oligarchs, generals, admirals and officials get cold feet, somehow only high bravado nationalists that get their news from fox and epoch times don't get cold feet.
It's not really the US not needing to de-escalate so much as the US refusing to engage with China in good faith. They don't want to de-escalate because American exceptionalism and the influence they wielded since the collapse of the USSR has rotted their brains. Quite literally unable to see the current state of the world as anything but a zero sum game.

I hope to see countries cooperate, get rich, and address climate change but that ain't ever happening because of fundamental ideological and economic conflicts of interest.
 

jiajia99

Junior Member
Registered Member
The world ex-China is ~90% of the world in both population and gdp terms
But you are assuming that most of that will lock out China when in reality none of them will do so because they still need China more then the USA right now, not to mention all those stats you are using are from western sources that have no incentive to tell the truth in regards to China. Also what US start ups are succeeding in this climate right now given how poorly the USA is going economic wise along with all those shut downs happening left and right

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but if we need to play this silly game, it’s not like US start ups are doing all that hot either and heck it’s not like anyone else around the world is benefiting from this start ups at all either

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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Also, I wouldn't really worry about Chinese firms being locked out of "90%" (???) of the world's economy, we are already seeing circumvention of certain Chinese firms which are blacklisted due to their business with Russia (like Deepcool, where a third party retailer began reselling their products on Amazon after being banned from the US:
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)

Chinese firms can continue to "Singapore wash" and try to legally distance themselves from China, while still acting as Chinese firms, hiring Chinese talent, and taking advantage of Chinese supply chains and human capital (like Shein and Bytedance):
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Ultimately the US needs to have alignment with their allies and the administrative capacity to keep track of all these firms and play whack-a-mole with their sanction policy, otherwise it'll prove to be ineffective, like what we're seeing with Russia currently.

There is that little thing called Soft Power thats why sanctions are not effective
Kim Jong Un had difficulty with used Lexus but now he is riding a new Lexus twice the price and off course Presidential Aurus. Just incase people dont get the hint.
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Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
Legititimacy is a huge question for US if they are starting a war against China. US is hoping for NATO countries to at least sanction China when US invades. If US can frame an US invasion as "protecting the freedom of democratic separatists in Taiwan against evil CPC", it would make it much more politically defenisble for NATO countries to sanction China or even aid US.

Whereas if they go mask off and show this is a racial great war against China by holocausing Chinese travellers, expats and even people who were ethnic Chinese a few generation ago for their skin color, this conduct won't be politically defensible anywhere and US can only expect neutrality at best from NATO.

Imagine for example if a country like Lithuania wanted to sanction China while US is fighting a clean war against only the PLA and let all Chinese visitors go home after visa cancellation, vs if US was openly genocidal. In the first case, Lithuania is endorsing a position of, anti communism, pro "democracy", maybe pro western. In the latter case, they are blatantly endorsing an ethnic cleansing. Which position do you think carries a higher risk of being war declared on by China? Even if deep inside they want an ethnic cleansing, they would not dare to speak it out loud, because of the risk of retaliation.

It's not about US PoW lives but about US being able to have some control to deescalate in a war they're outnumbered and outgunned in. If you go from 0-100 and start ethnic cleansing, China will also do interesting things in retaliation on every NATO/Pro-US immigrant, and any such caught in the path of their offensive. And there's nothing US can do to deescalate the situation. Don't forget there's also a few 100 000s at least civilian Americans in China, and even more in the surroundings.

Hence it's much better/realistic for US if Chinese people are simply forced to take the next ship/flight to Indonesia or some other neutral and then head back to the mainland. It achieves the same positive effect (no ethnic Chinese spies) with none of the massive downsides.
It’s not in the nature of Chinese people, especially under the CPC to conduct genocide the way the anglos did to the native Americans or 1930s~1940s Germany. If it comes down to a war that the U.S. unofficially frames as a “all of society/ racial holy war”, the CPC will be sure to maintain moral legitimacy by not conducting genocide against Anglos as much as I personally view this to be an appropriate response. Rather, I hope and would lobby the CPC to instead take the territories of the Five Eyes in perpetuity, as worthy recompense for Anglo sins.

What does this look like? Call it the Xinjiangisation of Australia and Canada. The rest of the United States may well take a generation or two to pacify but with loitering munitions and constant razing of grain fields around the Great Lakes as the anglos did to the bison food supply of the native Americans, I’m sure we can convince the anglos to return to Britain. The continental territories of the five eyes are the only worthy prize of the anglos’ desired racial holy war, and I’m sure even history would look favourably on this Red Dynasty for enlarging China to half the planet. We can call it the Reconquista of the SanXingDui Given the kinship between ancient Chinese and native Americans.
 

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member

Sep 23, 2001: 911 hijackers' identity theft; still alive after 911
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May 7, 2002: "Israeli art students" infiltrating US federal organizations - FBI, DEA, CIA, etc - in the months leading up to 911
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2000: Foreign art group "Gelatin" (renamed Gelitin in 2005) rents "91st" floor of WTC; BB18 is a fuse holder for explosive devices.
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21 Then the Philistines seized him, gouged out his eyes and took him down to Gaza. Binding him with bronze shackles, they set him to grinding grain in the prison. 22 But the hair on his head began to grow again after it had been shaved.

23 Now the rulers of the Philistines assembled to offer a great sacrifice to Dagon their god and to celebrate, saying, “Our god has delivered Samson, our enemy, into our hands.”

24 When the people saw him, they praised their god, saying,

“Our god has delivered our enemy
into our hands,
the one who laid waste our land
and multiplied our slain.”
25 While they were in high spirits, they shouted, “Bring out Samson to entertain us.” So they called Samson out of the prison, and he performed for them.

When they stood him among the pillars, 26 Samson said to the servant who held his hand, “Put me where I can feel the pillars that support the temple, so that I may lean against them.” 27 Now the temple was crowded with men and women; all the rulers of the Philistines were there, and on the roof were about three thousand men and women watching Samson perform. 28 Then Samson prayed to the Lord, “Sovereign Lord, remember me. Please, God, strengthen me just once more, and let me with one blow get revenge on the Philistines for my two eyes.” 29 Then Samson reached toward the two central pillars on which the temple stood. Bracing himself against them, his right hand on the one and his left hand on the other, 30 Samson said, “Let me die with the Philistines!” Then he pushed with all his might, and down came the temple on the rulers and all the people in it. Thus he killed many more when he died than while he lived.

31 Then his brothers and his father’s whole family went down to get him. They brought him back and buried him between Zorah and Eshtaol in the tomb of Manoah his father. He had led[
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] Israel twenty years.
[Hebrew Bible, Judges 16:21-31]

~3000 died in Gaza when Samson destroyed the temple by pushing down it's two "pillars". 2997 people died on 9/11 when the two towers were brought down.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The locking out is not in this case, a political decision, it is a business decision (hence, my reference to Google Search and Windows) - Baidu clears very little outside of China, not because it is banned, but because it was 2nd: people are used to using Google, no advertiser wants to run ads on baifu because it reaches a smaller customer base and that limits the scope of baidu to do the web scraping, etc, etc.

Once those network effects and customer lock-ins happen, people won’t change absent very compelling reasons, as it relates to startups. No amount of sanctions circumvention or whatnot matter in this case because it’s all legal trade.

Remember that "the West" only accounts for 15% of global population and less than 40% of global GDP.
Everyone else will be happy to trade with China and that accounts for 85% of global population and 60% of global GDP.

So for new technologies (primarily developed in China), the network and scale effects will generally accrue to China.

We can see this happening in the electric vehicle industry already on a global scale.
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Not really? China has a massive surge in notional human capital; that you’d see a comicitant growth in the number of startups pursuing every possible technological end would be expected (ex: automating every possible business process with softwarenew biological pathways for drugs to target, all kinds of material ideas for new batteries, etc, etc). A collapse in new business formation with apparently high savings rates and apparent increases in human capital mean there must be an absolutely atrocious business environment.

*for example, everyone is aware of the FAANGs, but fewer people are aware of software firms like MathWorks that make MATLAB (an important software package for all kinds of simulation)); Schrödinger, a New York software firm that makes a drug discovery software platform; or Ellie Mae, a software publisher made for making mortgage underwriting easier and less time intensive and more consistent (for more construction and fewer loan losses).
People are aware because that knowledge came from Jew studied in Saint Petersburg Russian empire that emigrated to US. usually by second or third generation US domestic population cannot produce that kind of research. Europe is much better that have sustained it for such a long time despite upheavals.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Chinese startups getting locked out of the 90% of the world that is not China is quite bad for them, as would be the deleterious effect of downstream firms that use Chinese startup inputs to improve business practices since they would have to
1) buy foreign and when Chinese startups get there, reconfigure their business, at substantial cost, to support local protectionism or
2) go without new innovation and run less efficient businesses or
3) wait for Chinese startups to develop (but if they have local protectionism - startups will have no incentive to innovate); and thus have more inefficient business practices

You forget that in many product categories, the Chinese market is far larger than the US or indeed, the combined West.

And that Chinese market has way more competitive and cut throat markets.

That is the driver for innovation and efficiency.

And for new products and services, Chinese companies have advantages in development speed, adoption speed and scale when compared to the US. Then those Chinese companies can use China as a base for international expansion. Remember that the West comprises a minority of global population and GDP.
 

Ringsword

Junior Member
Registered Member
It’s not in the nature of Chinese people, especially under the CPC to conduct genocide the way the anglos did to the native Americans or 1930s~1940s Germany. If it comes down to a war that the U.S. unofficially frames as a “all of society/ racial holy war”, the CPC will be sure to maintain moral legitimacy by not conducting genocide against Anglos as much as I personally view this to be an appropriate response. Rather, I hope and would lobby the CPC to instead take the territories of the Five Eyes in perpetuity, as worthy recompense for Anglo sins.

What does this look like? Call it the Xinjiangisation of Australia and Canada. The rest of the United States may well take a generation or two to pacify but with loitering munitions and constant razing of grain fields around the Great Lakes as the anglos did to the bison food supply of the native Americans, I’m sure we can convince the anglos to return to Britain. The continental territories of the five eyes are the only worthy prize of the anglos’ desired racial holy war, and I’m sure even history would look favourably on this Red Dynasty for enlarging China to half the planet. We can call it the Reconquista of the SanXingDui Given the kinship between ancient Chinese and native Americans.
Just the successful reunification of TW will be enough-a swift almost bloodless superbly tactical in execution will blow the eyeballs out of the 5 eyes quiet the barking rabid dog of Japan/SK and make India cower even more.Also the engagingof the westin a strategically/tactically intelligent way(not closing the door ala late Qing) and the ever,ever increasing modernization of China proper itself as a society/people will drive them mad.And as always -si vis pacem parabellum.
 
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