Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is Missing

delft

Brigadier
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

It's because flying faster at a lower altitude vastly reduces the fuel economy, therefore lessening the range.

Earlier they figured they were at a higher altitude.

Now the thinking is that the plane may have, on auto-pilot, descended to a lower altitude and then increased the throttle.

Personally, I believe they are making their best guesses now and when they arrive at a consensus about those educated guesses...then they adjust the search area accordingly.

In other words...they really do not know where the plane went down and they are desperately trying to come to some conclusion that gives them the best chance of finding actual debris.
But that would reduce the flying time. How do they reconcile that?
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

But that would reduce the flying time. How do they reconcile that?
Some of the analysts involved were discussing this last night.

The current theory is that perhaps the plane turned back, for whatever reasons, with alternate way points entered.

Their theory is that this acocunted for the lowering of alitutude. Once there...the theory is that the crew had already become incapacitated and the plane increased its power to some optimal level and continued to fly on the existing course until it ran out of gas. They account for the differences in time in all of this happening. The know that the pings happened...and they know with what they feel is some degree of certainty which direction the pings led off in...but apparently they are not p[recise or certain about exactly where the aircraft was when the pings were made...which is why all of these calculations about altitude, speed, and fuel rates are coming into play.

Anyhow, supposedly, this theory gives them the lower altitude and the higher speed...and the burn rate that accounted for the current search area. With that in mind, the aircraft did what it did, with its pings and then the final "half ping" that they speculate may have occurred when the plane ran out of fuel and lost power...but then deployed an air generator (which apparently deploys automatically) and when the power from that reached the sending unit it began the ping, but then was cut off when the plane was destroyed on hitting the ocean.

They felt pretty confident about this...but in my mind, given all that has happened, I feel like they are just arriving at consensus on the best they can come up with. Almost grasping at straws, albeit, ones that they have thought through given the few actual facts of hard data that they have.

Until someone actually finds a piece of wreckage that they can tie directly to the flight...they really have only these educated guesses. That's why I say, sadly, that it may come to what you said last night (my time) and having something wash up on a beach somewhere a year or two from now.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

But that would reduce the flying time. How do they reconcile that?

I recall the plane is now suspected to have fly at a higher speed during the earlier part of the flight after the diversion, not through the whole flight.
 
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

It's great that the effort to track the plane down is still going strong, I assume this will continue for the 30 days that the black box is supposed to send out pings. But if the airplane or its debris field is still not found by then what can be done to continue the search with a reasonable commitment and chance of success?
 

getready

Senior Member
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I don't see the logic. Traveling faster over a shorter range reduces the flight time. We have a minimum of the flight time from the analysed pings. How then did they come to the previous estimate of the flying speed?

Yup. something is suss about this. When all along they had calculated the flying time of the plane and to suddenly decide it actually flew faster and moved the search area 1000 km north! Someone somewhere sometime must have screwed up in their analysis or I smell fishy business
 

delft

Brigadier
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

Some of the analysts involved were discussing this last night.

The current theory is that perhaps the plane turned back, for whatever reasons, with alternate way points entered.

Their theory is that this acocunted for the lowering of alitutude. Once there...the theory is that the crew had already become incapacitated and the plane increased its power to some optimal level and continued to fly on the existing course until it ran out of gas. They account for the differences in time in all of this happening. The know that the pings happened...and they know with what they feel is some degree of certainty which direction the pings led off in...but apparently they are not p[recise or certain about exactly where the aircraft was when the pings were made...which is why all of these calculations about altitude, speed, and fuel rates are coming into play.

Anyhow, supposedly, this theory gives them the lower altitude and the higher speed...and the burn rate that accounted for the current search area. With that in mind, the aircraft did what it did, with its pings and then the final "half ping" that they speculate may have occurred when the plane ran out of fuel and lost power...but then deployed an air generator (which apparently deploys automatically) and when the power from that reached the sending unit it began the ping, but then was cut off when the plane was destroyed on hitting the ocean.

They felt pretty confident about this...but in my mind, given all that has happened, I feel like they are just arriving at consensus on the best they can come up with. Almost grasping at straws, albeit, ones that they have thought through given the few actual facts of hard data that they have.

Until someone actually finds a piece of wreckage that they can tie directly to the flight...they really have only these educated guesses. That's why I say, sadly, that it may come to what you said last night (my time) and having something wash up on a beach somewhere a year or two from now.
Some of this I understand, some I don't. I just want to remark on one aspect:
When the engines stop due to fuel starvation at 30k to 40k I would expect the aircraft to glide for more than fifteen minutes, an eternity compared with the time needed for a ping exchange.

Addenda:
I would expect the power to come from the famous/infamous Li batteries which should have enough energy to operate the aircraft systems for the whole duration of the glide, say half an hour.

Anecdote:
Long ago the flight engineer ( they still had them then, must have been in the sixties ) of a VC-10 flying from Hong Kong to Tokyo was reorganizing the use of the several fuel tanks and at some time he had all four engines fed from the central wing tank that was sucked dry so the aircraft became a glider. The aircraft automatically deployed an air turbine to provide power and that was used to repair the situation. However the air turbine couldn't be retracted and it had been destroyed by overuse when the aircraft reached Tokyo.
 
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broadsword

Brigadier
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I'm giving up on the suicide theory.
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Media unfair to MH370 pilot Zaharie, say neighbours


20140329-mh370-piot.jpg
New Straits Times
Saturday, Mar 29, 2014

SUBANG JAYA - The Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) failure to find incriminating evidence from the hard drives and flight simulator of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah proves that the allegations against the MH370 pilot were only ratings driven propaganda by the foreign media.

Zaharie's neighbour, Kamal Nizam Kamal Ibrahim, 29, said the investigation showed that Zaharie loved aviation and was not linked to any terrorist groups.

"They (the allegations) are all lies. I have known Zaharie and his family since young as our families were among the first ones to come and live here.

"He (Zaharie) had invited me over to his house many times to try the simulator. That simulator is just like a video game to him and he loves to share his hobby with everybody," he said.

Kamal said he was close to Zaharie's eldest son, Ahmad Idris, 30, but admitted that they rarely communicated since the jetliner went missing on March 8.

Another neighbour who refused to be identified lamented the way some media was portraying Zaharie.

"The reporting is unfair and the allegations are malicious and baseless.

"I knew him as a nice guy... he was definitely not someone capable of becoming a suicidal terrorist," he said.

Meanwhile, attempts to get reaction from Zaharie's youngest son, Ahmad Seth on the latest FBI findings were in vain as he was not at home.

It is understood that he no longer returns to his house after it was discovered by the media on Tuesday.
 
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I'm giving up on the suicide theory.
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Media unfair to MH370 pilot Zaharie, say neighbours


View attachment 9459
New Straits Times
Saturday, Mar 29, 2014

SUBANG JAYA - The Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) failure to find incriminating evidence from the hard drives and flight simulator of Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah proves that the allegations against the MH370 pilot were only ratings driven propaganda by the foreign media.

Zaharie's neighbour, Kamal Nizam Kamal Ibrahim, 29, said the investigation showed that Zaharie loved aviation and was not linked to any terrorist groups.

"They (the allegations) are all lies. I have known Zaharie and his family since young as our families were among the first ones to come and live here.

"He (Zaharie) had invited me over to his house many times to try the simulator. That simulator is just like a video game to him and he loves to share his hobby with everybody," he said.

Kamal said he was close to Zaharie's eldest son, Ahmad Idris, 30, but admitted that they rarely communicated since the jetliner went missing on March 8.

Another neighbour who refused to be identified lamented the way some media was portraying Zaharie.

"The reporting is unfair and the allegations are malicious and baseless.

"I knew him as a nice guy... he was definitely not someone capable of becoming a suicidal terrorist," he said.

Meanwhile, attempts to get reaction from Zaharie's youngest son, Ahmad Seth on the latest FBI findings were in vain as he was not at home.

It is understood that he no longer returns to his house after it was discovered by the media on Tuesday.

I agree with the guy's friends. Even though it's never impossible (and happens often) that the "nice person" is actually a monster, I still don't think it's right for any of us at this time to make assumptions or judge the pilot. We really know nothing about what happened, and our minimal respect that we can do at this time is not place blame on those onboard in any way.

Plus, having a flight simulator really means nothing. If using hobby as a way to determine a person's character, then most of us are either bizarre, psychopathic, sex freak, or ultimate bore one way or another. Investigation is ok, but otherwise people should leave him and his family alone.
 

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I agree with the guy's friends. Even though it's never impossible (and happens often) that the "nice person" is actually a monster, I still don't think it's right for any of us at this time to make assumptions or judge the pilot. We really know nothing about what happened, and our minimal respect that we can do at this time is not place blame on those onboard in any way.

Plus, having a flight simulator really means nothing. If using hobby as a way to determine a person's character, then most of us are either bizarre, psychopathic, sex freak, or ultimate bore one way or another. Investigation is ok, but otherwise people should leave him and his family alone.

Right, I roll, stall, spin, feather engines and ditch my simulator for jollies, 737, 747, will actually roll quite nicely, that airbus junk with its FBW, well it won't do much. The C-130 simulator flys well on two engines as long as the thrust is symmetrical, I don't find any thrill in hitting the ground, although it does happen as I am attempting some of my low altitude maneuvers. The simulator is fairly true to life, once you get the choppers doing some wild oscillations, it is very unlikely that you will recover, same is true of the C-130 if you stall at high altitude. So no, playing with your flight simulator does not mean you are a terrorist, and yes my grandsons love the flight sim.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

Sure. I agree with you. But they should publish their assumptions. Just saying we assume a higher speed is nonsense.

If it makes any difference the analysis and possible LOC came from Boeing itself and not some politician or so called experts.
 
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