Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is Missing

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I hear just now from BBC Radio 4 about the search area being moved to the North East because they remembered that an 777 that flew as long as it did it must have been flying slower than they initially assumed. Why did it so long because they thought of that?
One advantage: the chance is better that debris will end up on a West Australian beach. If we find nothing at sea Australia should send a photo aircraft daily along that coast from the time it might get there.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

delft said:

I hear just now from BBC Radio 4 about the search area being moved to the North East because they remembered that an 777 that flew as long as it did it must have been flying slower than they initially assumed. Why did it so long because they thought of that?
One advantage: the chance is better that debris will end up on a West Australian beach. If we find nothing at sea Australia should send a photo aircraft daily along that coast from the time it might get there.

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Other way around. It's now suspected the plane was traveling faster than first thought therefore reducing it's range.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

I am afraid it also reinforces the notion of having spent last week chasing any old piece of flotsam and jetsom in the roaring forties.

I guess it means that the "debris field" pictures have not been so convincing or compelling after all.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

SouthernSky said:

Other way around. It's now suspected the plane was traveling faster than first thought therefore reducing it's range.

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I don't see the logic. Traveling faster over a shorter range reduces the flight time. We have a minimum of the flight time from the analysed pings. How then did they come to the previous estimate of the flying speed?

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

Keep in mind the seas have not been calm, tides and currents as well as sea swells might have sunk whatever wreckage was there.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

delft said:

I don't see the logic. Traveling faster over a shorter range reduces the flight time. We have a minimum of the flight time from the analysed pings. How then did they come to the previous estimate of the flying speed?

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the pings are not precise, even now we have no idea the potential for error. As to faster speed shorter flight, fuel.at a higher speed the 777 burns more fuel to generate thrust for her increased velocity. This means that her speed would have reduced here flight range.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

Let's reason.
The weight and fuel weight of the aircraft at take off are known. You can estimate the fuel burn to the point the aircraft was last seen on radar NW of Penang. You can then estimate the fuel consumption rate that will keep the aircraft flying until the last received ping. Assuming economical cruise conditions for the speed chosen will give different flying times for different speeds. The speed the aircraft actually used cannot be higher than that which allows for that last ping. If the engines worked for an additional 59 minutes the speed would have been less. Each time and speed combination gives a different end point for the flight. So what changed so that a higher speed gave the same flying time than a lower speed and still a shorter range? Was there an assumption wrt those 59 minutes? Was it something else? I want to know.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

Well first there is always a margin for error, second we don't know the exact time of crash or how long they were in the air. We know when the last ping was but not any of the data associated with it.
For all we know the signal could have been the last gasp of a dying engine before it sank into the sea.

Next estimates based on radio are not always accurate. Radio signals don't always behave in a predicted manor. Particularly around Water where depending on sea conditions the ocean can reflect the signal causing it to appear to that the broadcast could have come from another location.

Delft, they have been making guesses. Same as you and me. Perhaps more educated but guessing nonetheless, and in this case thus far they have not been guessing well. Just goes to show we still don't know Jack about our world.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

TerraN_EmpirE said:

Well first there is always a margin for error, second we don't know the exact time of crash or how long they were in the air. We know when the last ping was but not any of the data associated with it.
For all we know the signal could have been the last gasp of a dying engine before it sank into the sea.

Next estimates based on radio are not always accurate. Radio signals don't always behave in a predicted manor. Particularly around Water where depending on sea conditions the ocean can reflect the signal causing it to appear to that the broadcast could have come from another location.

Delft, they have been making guesses. Same as you and me. Perhaps more educated but guessing nonetheless, and in this case thus far they have not been guessing well. Just goes to show we still don't know Jack about our world.

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Sure. I agree with you. But they should publish their assumptions. Just saying we assume a higher speed is nonsense.

Re: Malaysia Airlines Plane is Missing

delft said:

I don't see the logic. Traveling faster over a shorter range reduces the flight time. We have a minimum of the flight time from the analysed pings. How then did they come to the previous estimate of the flying speed?

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It's because flying faster at a lower altitude vastly reduces the fuel economy, therefore lessening the range.

Earlier they figured they were at a higher altitude.

Now the thinking is that the plane may have, on auto-pilot, descended to a lower altitude and then increased the throttle.

Personally, I believe they are making their best guesses now and when they arrive at a consensus about those educated guesses...then they adjust the search area accordingly.

In other words...they really do not know where the plane went down and they are desperately trying to come to some conclusion that gives them the best chance of finding actual debris.